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The Ramification Index
A supply-side macroeconomic indicator built on DRAM memory prices. 6/6 NBER recessions since 1980 signalled, r = 0.41 with real GDP, Granger causality F = 5.83 (p < 0.01). Version 2 bifurcates the index into commodity DRAM (R^C) and AI/HBM (R^AI) sub-indices and documents the 2025–2026 RAMageddon episode. Published by Knowware Institute. Author: Khayyam Wakil — Director, Knowware Institute.
- Authority
- 46 reach 0 · trust 6 · quality 25 · freshness 15
- Tier
- listed
- llms.txt
- https://ram-index.com/llms.txt
- llms-full.txt
- https://ram-index.com/llms-full.txt
- Sections
- 5
- Links
- 23
- Size
- 6367 bytes
- Registered
- 2026-05-28
- Country
- — Publisher location unknown; CDN address excluded
- Country evidence
- No published address evidence collected yet
- For agents
- Documentation: developer or product docs worth reading, nothing to call
- First seen
- 2026-10-27T12:10:20.589Z
- Last checked
- 2026-10-27T12:10:22.422Z
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Their llms.txt
The beginning of the file, from our validated copy saved 2026-10-27T12:10:20.796Z. Cached copy · Source on ram-index.com
# The Ramification Index
> A supply-side macroeconomic indicator built on DRAM memory prices. 6/6 NBER recessions since 1980 signalled, r = 0.41 with real GDP, Granger causality F = 5.83 (p < 0.01). Version 2 bifurcates the index into commodity DRAM (R^C) and AI/HBM (R^AI) sub-indices and documents the 2025–2026 RAMageddon episode. Published by Knowware Institute. Author: Khayyam Wakil — Director, Knowware Institute.
**What It Is.** The Ramification Index treats DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) spot and contract prices as a leading macroeconomic signal. Memory chips are produced by a global oligopoly (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) and priced in a nearly-frictionless global market, making them an unusually clean read on supply–demand conditions in the broader economy.
**Important notes:**
- The index has covered **6/6 NBER-dated U.S. recessions** since 1980 and passes Granger causality testing (F = 5.83, p < 0.01): DRAM prices carry information about future economic output that GDP itself does not contain.
- Version 2 splits the index into **Commodity (R^C, DDR/LPDDR)** and **AI/HBM (R^AI, stacked memory for accelerators)** sub-indices, which have been moving in opposite directions since 2024.
- The 2025–2026 **RAMageddon** episode is the sharpest positive reading in 46 years — driven by oligopoly supply reallocation toward AI/HBM, not demand expansion. The 2026 composite reading is 0.863 (highest since 1995/2017 depending on series).
- Data is self-audited (v3, 2026): the original DRAM price source was recovered, the 1988 endpoint corrected, and the page series re-synced to data/indices-wide-v3.csv, resolving 18 years of drift. Machine-readable data is in /data/ri.json.
- The 2026 row is a projection (status "incomplete"); final value pending Dec 2026 DRAM pricing data.
## Live Monitor & Pages
- [RAM Monitor (live)](https://ram-index.com/index.md): Real-time dashboard — current RI reading (0.863), 10-year mini chart, 46-year historical series, 6 DRAM market signals, 11-stock semiconductor equity tiers refreshed every 15 min, and watch conditions. Markdown mirror of the live page.
- [Research Paper](https://ram-index.com/paper.md): Full working paper — The Ramification Index v2: The Bifurcated Index. Abstract, key results, recession scorecard, Granger causality tests, RAMageddon timeline, interpretive framework. Markdown mirror.
- [Bifurcated Dashboard](https://ram-index.com/dashboard.md): Composite, commodity, and AI/HBM sub-index charts 1981–2026, recession coverage, GDP/labour correlations, supply-side divergence regime. Markdown mirror.
- [HTML versions](https://ram-index.com/index.html) · [paper HTML](https://ram-index.com/paper.html) · [dashboard HTML](https://ram-index.com/dashboard.html): the human-facing pages, if formatting matters more than text.
## Data (machine-readable)
- [ri.json](https://ram-index.com/data/ri.json): The Ramification Index series (1980–2026), headline, sub-indices, HBM weight, GDP and S&P 500 context — gener
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