# Yardeni QuickTakes
> Daily insights, focused news, clear charts, weekly video webcasts, and much more. Posted by Dr Ed Yardeni and his research team.
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## Posts
- [What Will Warsh Do?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/what-will-warsh-do.md)
- [FOMO's Rollercoaster Versus  FEMO's Steady Climb](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/fomos-rollercoaster-versus-femos-steady-climb.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Tech Wrecked, Health Care & Staples Rally](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-tech-wrecked-health-care-staples-rally.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 19 - 23](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-october-19-23.md) - Last week’s inflation reports came in hot. September’s CPI rose 0.6% m/m, lifting headline inflation from 3.4% y/y in August to 3.7%. Core CPI rose 0.3% m/m, taking its y/y rate from 2.4% to 2.6%. Both topped expectations. PPI final demand jumped 1.3% m/m. That pushed its y/y rate to 6.3%, the high…
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading 'Go Global' To Market Weight](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-downgrading-go-global-to-market-weight.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: Yes, AI Is Too Big To Fail](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-yes-ai-is-too-big-to-fail.md) - I. Bonds We've all been suffering from AI fatigue for a while. The daily news about it has been head-spinning. We've been warned that AI is a bubble that will burst, just as the late-1990s tech bubble led to the Tech Wreck in the early 2000s. Analogies to the credit excesses of the Great Financial…
- [AI Scare Raises Growth Fears and Lowers Bond Yields](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ai-scare-raises-growth-fears-and-lowers-bond-yields.md)
- [Continue To Proceed With Caution](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/continue-to-proceed-with-caution.md)
- [Is FEMO Too Concentrated?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-femo-too-concentrated.md)
- [Sizing Up US Debt](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/sizing-up-us-debt.md)
- [S&P 500 SECTORS CALL: More Green On The Screen](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/s-p-500-sectors-call-more-green-on-the-screen.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 12-16](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-october-12-16.md) - Last week was relatively quiet on the economic data front, but the indicators released pointed to continued economic strength. ADP weekly payroll gains increased for the fifth consecutive week, reaching a three-month high, while jobless claims fell to multi-year lows. The ISM NM-PMI remained solid…
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: French Toast & Brazilian Bossa Nova](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-french-toast-brazilian-bossa-nova.md) - I. Bonds The global bond market remains jittery, though yields may be starting to stabilize after their rout in recent months (chart). Nevertheless, geopolitical turbulence may still buffet them. Yields have risen for an assortment of reasons, from better-than-expected economic growth (US) to fisca…
- [US MARKETS CALL: Is The 10-Year Bond Yield Back To The Old Normal?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-markets-call-is-the-10-year-bond-yield-back-to-the-old-normal.md)
- [Lots Of FEMO In Q3's Earnings Reporting Season](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/lots-of-femo-in-q3s-earnings-reporting-season.md)
- [The Bond Yield Spectrum](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-bond-yield-spectrum.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Yields On The Spectrum: From Good To Ugly (with special guest Nick Raich)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-bond-yields-on-the-spectrum-from-good-to-ugly-with-special-guest-nick-raich.md)
- [2028 Should Be A Good Year](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/2028-should-be-a-good-year.md)
- [In Praise Of Profits](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/in-praise-of-profits.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary & Consumer Staples](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-information-technology-consumer-discretionary-consumer-staples.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Bond Vigilantes Gone Wild](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-bond-vigilantes-gone-wild.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: October 5-9](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-october-5-9.md) - Most of last week's economic indicator reports were strong: Initial jobless claims fell to near a 57-year low, ADP private payrolls rose 90,000 in September, and the ISM M-PMI was in expansion for a ninth straight month. Friday's employment report was the exception. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,00…
- [US MARKET CALL: Stocks Ignoring Bonds, For Now](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-stocks-ignoring-bonds-for-now.md) - The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has climbed above 5.25%, and the S&P 500 hasn’t flinched. The stock index is just 2.2% below our year-end target of 7,900. It could overshoot our target in the coming days now that crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf producers reportedly are averaging around…
- [Thanks For The Memories](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/thanks-for-the-memories.md)
- [Optimistic Spin: Bond Market Pricing Better-Than-Expected Economic Growth](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/optimistic-spin-bond-market-pricing-better-than-expected-economic-growth.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: On Inflation, Capital Spending & Economic Resilience](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-on-inflation-capital-spending-economic-resilience.md)
- [Prospect of Accelerating Wage Growth In A Strong Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/prospect-of-accelerating-wage-growth-in-a-strong-economy.md)
- [Thoughts On Global Government Debt With A Focus On The US](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/thoughts-on-global-government-debt-with-a-focus-on-the-us.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Semiconductors, Utilities & Materials](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-semiconductors-utilities-materials.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 28 - October 2](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-september-28-october-2.md) - The week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data releases, capped off by September's employment report (Fri). August's PCED and the third estimate of Q2 GDP arrive Wednesday, along with BEA's annual revisions, followed by ISM's M-PMI on Thursday. FedSpeak continues, with Richmond Fed President T…
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Interest Rates Are Troubling](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-interest-rates-are-troubling.md) - I. Global Economy The global economy has been surprisingly resilient so far this year. There were dips earlier this year, when the Middle East war was in full swing; but in recent months, global industrial production and exports have rebounded to their record highs from before the war (chart). The…
- [US MARKETS CALL: Invasion Of The Bond Vigilante Algorithms](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-markets-call-invasion-of-the-bond-vigilante-algorithms.md)
- [Baby Boom Briefing](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/baby-boom-briefing.md)
- [Booming Economy Pushes Bond Yields Higher](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/booming-economy-pushes-bond-yields-higher.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: All About The Fed, The Economy & Inflation](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-he-said-xi-said.md)
- [The Silver Tsunami In A Booming Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-silver-tsunami-in-a-booming-economy.md)
- [Tech Is Top Dog Again As Investors Conclude It Is Cheap](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/tech-is-top-dog-again-as-investors-conclude-it-is-cheap.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Financials, Communication Services & Industrials](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-financials-communication-services-industrials.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Stocks Weathering Storm In Bonds](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-stocks-weathering-storm-in-bonds.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 21 - 25](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-september-21-25.md) - The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps on Wednesday, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The vote was unanimous. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cited stronger growth, insufficient progress on inflation, and rising geopolitical risk as reasons for the move. The Fed's updated pr…
- [US MARKET CALL: Investors Curbing Their Enthusiasm As Less FOMO Offsets More FEMO](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-investors-curbing-their-enthusiasm-as-less-fomo-offsets-more-femo.md) - I. Curbing Our Enthusiasm Last week on Tuesday, we pushed our 8,400 year-end target for the S&P 500 to mid-2027. Our new year-end target is 7,900. We remain confident in the resilience of both the economy and S&P 500 companies’ earnings per share (EPS). On the other hand, we think recent developmen…
- [Global Bond Rout Made In Japan?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-bond-rout-made-in-japan.md)
- [Fed's Hawks Circling Over Hot US Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/feds-hawks-circling-over-hot-us-economy.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Worry List Is Growing More Worrisome](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-worry-list-is-growing-more-worrisome.md)
- [Proceed With Caution](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/proceed-with-caution.md)
- [Warsh & Bessent Share A Credibility Problem](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warsh-bessent-share-a-credibility-problem.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Energy, Information Technology & Health Care](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-energy-information-technology-health-care.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Will The Bull Market Survive Higher Oil Prices & Bond Yields?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-will-the-bull-market-survive-higher-oil-prices-bond-yields.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 14-18](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-september-14-18.md) - Global bond yields rose across the board last week (chart). The US 10-year Treasury bond yield climbed 19 basis points to 4.97%. The UK's 10-year gilt closed at 5.35%, near its highest level in decades. Even Japan's 10-year, at 2.99%, is near multi-year highs. The European Central Bank (ECB) delive…
- [US MARKET CALL: Still Targeting 8400, But Raising Odds Of Bearish Outcome To 30%](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-still-targeting-8400-but-raising-odds-of-bearish-outcome-to-30.md) - I. Performance The good news is that our recommendation to overweight the S&P 500 Energy sector is working well (chart). The bad news is that it is doing so because the war in the Middle East has re-escalated. Saudi Arabia has shut down its East-West pipeline as a precaution after a drone attack th…
- [Bond Vigilantes Dare Bessent To Use His Bazooka](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/bond-vigilantes-dare-bessent-to-use-his-bazooka.md)
- [Bessent Tells Bond Vigilantes: "I Am The House"](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/bessent-tells-bond-vigilantes-i-am-the-house.md)
- [DEEP DIVE: CPI Versus PCED Crib Notes](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/deep-dive-cpi-versus-pced-crib-notes.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 7-11](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-september-7-11.md) - August payroll employment jumped 162,000, a sharp reversal from July's decline, while the August unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Those numbers reinforce our view that the labor market remains solid, so the Fed has little reason to delay a rate hike. The federal funds futures market now price…
- [US SECTORS CALL: Financials, Real Estate & Utilities](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sector.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: More Fabulous Earnings Momentum](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-more-fabulous-earnings-momentum.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Still A Worldwide Bull Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-still-a-worldwide-bull-market.md) - Stock prices continue to rise worldwide. A run of central bank meetings over the coming weeks will test whether equity composure holds. Bond yields are also rising worldwide. The question is whether that reflects better-than-expected economic growth, higher-than-expected inflation, and/or looming f…
- [A Goldilocks Jobs Report Just In Time For Labor Day](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-goldilocks-jobs-report-just-in-time-for-labor-day.md) - The August US jobs report is among the best we have seen in some time and provided an uplifting backdrop for the Labor Day weekend. Labor demand is solid and becoming more broad-based, unemployment remains low, and labor supply improved in August. At the same time, moderate wage growth and solid pr…
- [Boom Lifts Bond Yields](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/boom-lifts-bond-yields.md)
- [Dell Results Suggest AI Productivity Boom Is Here](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/dell-results-suggest-ai-productivity-boom-is-here.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh World](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-warsh-world.md)
- [Beware: September Is Back Again](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/beware-september-is-back-again.md)
- [Is A Debt Crisis Imminent?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-a-debt-crisis-imminent.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology, Energy & Consumer Discretionary](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-information-technology-energy-consumer-discretionary.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: Bull Market In Stocks Despite Bear Market In Bonds](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-bull-market-in-stocks-despite-bear-market-in-bonds.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 31 - September 4](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-31-september-4.md) - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was hawkish. He declined to offer forward guidance, saying he's "committed to a discipline, not a decision." He said this summer's better-than-expected inflation prints don't yet show that underlying trends have meaningfully improved, and tha…
- [US MARKET CALL: Warsh Proof](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-warsh-proof.md) - Last Wednesday, Nvidia's earnings report came in much stronger than expected, confirming that the AI boom is still going strong. On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was much more hawkish than expected in his Jackson Hole speech. He acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed's 2.0% target. Overa…
- [AI Buildout Is Stimulating The Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ai-buildout-is-stimulating-the-economy.md)
- [Bessent Twist Is Also Bessent Put](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/bessent-twist-is-also-bessent-put.md) - I. Bessent Put For Bonds Over the past few weeks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took three actions to deter the Bond Vigilantes by showing them the Treasury's ample toolbox for stabilizing bond yields. First, the Treasury joined Japan in supporting the yen, reducing the risk that Tokyo would nee…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Trump Threatens Military Action Against The Bond Vigilantes](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-trump-threatens-military-action-against-the-bond-vigilantes.md)
- [Peak Fear? Peak Yields? Peak Earnings? Peak AI?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/peak-fear-peak-yields-peak-earnings-peak-ai.md)
- [The Latest Pitch of America's Top Bond Salesman](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-latest-pitch-of-americas-top-bond-salesman.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: China Dumping Its Excess Production On The World](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-china-dumping-its-excess-production-on-the-world.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Health Care, Semiconductors, Consumer Staples & Materials](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-health-care-semiconductors-consumer-staples-materials.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 24-28](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-24-28.md) - Global bond markets stole the spotlight last week. The US 10-year yield closed at 4.74% and the 30-year at 5.27%, up 6bps and 2bps, respectively, for the week (chart). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent surprised the markets on Wednesday by announcing that the US Treasury would double its long-term d…
- [US MARKET CALL: Stocks Getting Cheaper As Earnings Outpace Prices](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-stocks-getting-cheaper-as-earnings-outpace-prices.md) - Stocks are cheaper than they were in January. S&P 500 forward earnings has risen twice as fast as the S&P 500 stock price index so far this year. So the forward P/E has declined as the index rose to record highs. The impetus was FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum) as opposed to FOMO (fear of missing…
- [Freaking Out Over The Bond Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/freaking-out-over-the-bond-market.md)
- [Bessent's Put For The Bond Vigilantes & More On Fed's Hawks vs Owls Debate](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/bessents-put-for-the-bond-vigilantes-more-on-feds-hawks-vs-owls-debate.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Hawks Versus Owls At The Fed](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-hawks-versus-owls-at-the-fed.md)
- [AI-Led Economic Boom Driving Yields Higher In US As Japanese Yields Continue To Normalize](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ai-led-economic-boom-driving-yields-higher-in-us-as-japanese-yields-continue-to-normalize.md)
- [Is The Fed's Stock Valuation Model Working Again?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-the-feds-stock-valuation-model-working-again.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Momentum Is Back](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-momentum-is-back.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Stories About Earnings, Margins & Multiples](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-stories-about-earnings-margins-multiples.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: Roaring Decades](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-roaring-decades.md) - Last week, we raised our year-end S&P 500 target from 8,250 to 8,400. We are sticking with our 10,000 target by the end of the decade, though we might raise it. Our Roaring 2020s scenario is delivering even better S&P 500 earnings than we expected. FEMO (fabulous earnings momentum) is driving the s…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 17-21](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-17-21.md) - Last week brought mixed inflation news in the US: July’s core CPI inflation rate cooled to 2.5% y/y, its lowest since March 2021 (chart). However, July's comparable PPI rose 4.4%. Wednesday’s release of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting minutes should provide some insights on how Fed officials were asses…
- [The Fed's Divide: Will Core PCED Settle The Debate?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-feds-divide-will-core-pced-settle-the-debate.md)
- [July CPI: The Fed Is Still In The Woods](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/july-cpi-the-fed-is-still-in-the-woods.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Does The Jobs Report Change Anything?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-does-the-jobs-report-change-anything.md)
- [Raising Our S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Outlook Due To FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/raising-our-s-p-500-earnings-price-targets-outlook-due-to-femo-fabulous-earnings-momentum.md) - I. Quarterly Earnings Per Share What a fabulous Q2-2026 earnings season it has been! So far, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported. They broadly crushed industry analysts' forecasts for earnings and profit margins, both of which saw a boost from mark-to-market (MTM) gains from Alphabet and Amazon…
- [Updating The Worry List](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-2.md) - The S&P 500 hit yet another record high yesterday, led by fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO). That puts the index closer to our year-end target of 8,250 and 10,000 by the end of the decade. The economy has been growing without a recession since the Great Financial Crisis, except for the two-month lo…
- [US SECTORS CALL: What's Up, What's Down In The S&P 500?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-whats-up-whats-down-in-the-s-p-500.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Will Yen Yin Or Yang Financial Markets?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-will-yen-yin-or-yang-financial-markets.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: History Lesson](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-history-lesson.md) - The S&P 500 broke out of its summer range this week to yet another record high. The index closed at 7,757.64 on Friday, clearing the 7,500 level it had circled since May 14. The index is 3.5% above its 50-day moving average and 9.8% above its 200-day moving average. Those are not extreme readings.…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 10-14](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-10-14.md) - Last week, July payrolls fell 23,000, missing the 85,000 consensus, even as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 7 bps on the release before recovering to close little changed near 4.21%. This week, attention turns to inflation. July CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) will…
- [People Close To Warsh Are Talking About Him](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/people-close-to-warsh-are-talking-about-him.md)
- [US Economy Is Fine  & The Fed Should Be Turning More Hawkish](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-economy-is-fine-the-fed-should-be-turning-more-hawkish.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: GDP Growth Is AI-Powered & G-Shaped (Not K-Shaped)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-gdp-growth-is-ai-powered-g-shaped-not-k-shaped.md)
- [Stock Market's Summer Stall Is Over Thanks To The ‘OK Economy’ & FEMO](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/stock-markets-summer-stall-is-over-thanks-to-the-ok-economy-femo.md)
- [Missions Impossible: The War, The Fed & The Yen](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/missions-impossible-the-war-the-fed-the-yen.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Damage From AI & War Shocks Has Been Minimal](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-damage-from-ai-war-shocks-has-been-minimal.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Information Technology Is On Sale](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-information-technology-is-on-sale.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: August 3-7](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-august-3-7.md) - After a week dominated by the Fed news, Q2's GDP release, and four Mag-7 earnings reports, the week ahead is jam-packed with labor market data, capped by Friday's employment report. Fedspeak resumes as well, with Governor Lisa Cook and SF Fed Bank President Mary Daly both speaking on Wednesday. The…
- [US MARKET CALL: Situational (Un)Awareness Hedge Fund Blows Up Without Blowing Up The Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-situational-un-awareness-hedge-fund-blows-up-without-blowing-up-the-market.md) - So far, so good. We predicted a summer stall in the stock market, with bouts of volatility rather than a correction, and that is how June and July played out. The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since May 14, fluctuating around 7,500, while the market has churned underneath. The rotation of leadership amo…
- [US Economy Is Still Flying](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-economy-is-still-flying.md)
- [Warsh Fails First Credibility Test: Bond Vigilantes Want More Than Hawkish Squawks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warsh-fails-first-credibility-test-bond-vigilantes-want-more-than-hawkish-squawks.md)
- [Inflation Risks Still Outweigh Labor Market Risks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflation-risks-still-outweigh-labor-market-risks.md)
- [AI Capex Boom Continues to Boost US Economic Growth](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ai-capex-boom-continues-to-boost-us-economic-growth.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Getting Yin-Yanged By The Latest Gulf War](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-marke.md)
- [US SECTORS CALL: Follow The Money](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-call-follow-the-money.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JULY 27 - 31](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-27-31.md) - The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,411.98, down 0.6% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. Oil was the dominant story: The price of Brent crude jumped 7% Thursday to settle at $100.69 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May 26, after Yemen's Houthi militants claimed strikes on two Saudi oil t…
- [US MARKET CALL: MTM & Chips' Profit Margin Distorting S&P 500 Earnings, But FEMO Lives On!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-mtm-chips-profit-margin-distorting-s-p-500-earnings-but-femo-lives-on.md)
- [Apocalypse Now! Or, TACO Now?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/apocalypse-now-or-taco-now.md)
- [Choke Points & Other Concerns Causing The Stock Market's Summer Stall](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/choke-points-other-concerns-causing-the-stock-markets-summer-stall.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Fed Rate Hike Still On The Table](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-fed-rate-hike-still-on-the-table.md)
- [US Economy Powers On As FIFA Spending & IRS Tax Rebates Fade](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-economy-powers-on-as-fifa-spending-irs-tax-rebates-fade.md)
- [DEEP DIVE: We Still Expect a 2026 Rate Hike](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/deep-dive-we-still-expect-a-2026-rate-hike.md)
- [US SECTORS: Rotations and Corrections](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-sectors-rotations-and-corrections.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Downgrading Emerging Markets To Market Weight](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-downgrading-emerging-markets-to-market-weight.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: Hanging Out At 7,500 And 4.50%](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-hanging-out-at-7-500-and-4-50.md) - The S&P 500 first hit 7,500 on May 14 and has remained stuck around that level. The index continues to cruise along its 50-day moving average. A 6.0% drop would send it back to its 200-day moving average (chart). We have seen this movie before, recently, during late 2024 into early 2025 and again d…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 20-24](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-20-24.md) - The week ahead is light on economic data. The entire week falls inside the Fed's blackout period ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, so there's no Fedspeak to parse before the committee revisits the current 3.50%-3.75% funds rate range. Odds are that the committee's statement will remain hawkish…
- [US Consumers Singing, "Ain't No Stoppin' Us Now!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/born-to-shop-2.md)
- [Too Much Complacency?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/too-much-complacency.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Warsh’s Tasks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-warshs-tasks.md)
- [A Refreshingly Cool CPI Inflation Report Must Please Warsh](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-refreshingly-cool-cpi-inflation-report-must-please-warsh.md)
- [Captain America: Guardian Of The Strait!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/captain-america-guardian-of-the-strait.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace & War](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-war-peace-war.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: Great Expectations](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-great-expectations.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 13-17](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-13-17.md) - The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,575.39, up 1.2% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 1.7% last week. The dominant story was a sharp re-escalation of the war between the US and Iran. Trump declared the ceasefire "over" on Wednesday after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, an…
- [June FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed's Hawkish Pivot](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/june-fomc-minutes-confirm-feds-hawkish-pivot.md) - I. Sentiment The S&P 500 first rose above 7,500 on May 14. It has continued to fluctuate around there since then. This may be a sign that investors are a bit fatigued from all the commotion about the Strait of Hormuz, AI, earnings, Warsh, the Magnificent-7, semiconductors, FOMO, and FEMO so far thi…
- [War! What Is It Good For?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/war-what-is-it-good-for.md) - The 1970 song "War! What Is It Good For?" was performed by the Temptations on an album and by Edwin Starr as a single. The song's answer to the question is "Absolutely nothing!" The powerful lyrics include: "It ain't nothing but a heartbreaker / Friend only to the undertaker, woo!" Financial market…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Making Sense Of A Strange Jobs Report](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-making-sense-of-a-strange-jobs-report.md)
- [Booming AI Imports Depressing US GDP, Though Not Final Sales](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/booming-ai-imports-depressing-us-gdp-though-not-final-sales.md)
- [Rotation Or Correction Ahead In Response To Earnings Season?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/rotation-or-correction-ahead-in-response-to-earnings-season.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: July 6-10](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-july-6-10.md) - The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,483.23, up 1.8% on the week, while the Nasdaq rose 2.1%. Memory chip stocks pulled back sharply last week, cooling off the parabolic run that followed Micron's blowout June 24 earnings report (chart). Shares surged 17% the next day to a new all-time high of $1,255.0…
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: AI Trade Depresses EM Trade](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-ai-trade-depresses-em-trade.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: A Bubble In Bubbles?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-a-bubble-in-bubbles.md) - The S&P 500 rose 9.3% ytd through July 2. Can it rise another 10.2% over the rest of this year to achieve our S&P 500 target of 8250? We still think so. Consider the following: (1) FOMO vs FEMO. Is it time to underweight the S&P 500 Information Technology sector? It is if you believe the AI trade i…
- [God Bless America!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/god-bless-america.md) - The United States of America has thrived for 250 years. There have been setbacks along the way. But they were overcome. The Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776 set the stage for Americans to prosper by declaring: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that…
- [Warsh's Sintra Serenade To The Bond Vigilantes](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warshs-sintra-serenade-to-the-bond-vigilantes.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Update On The ‘G-Shaped’ Versus ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Debate](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-update-on-the-g-shaped-versus-k-shaped-economy-debate.md)
- [A Well-Balanced US Labor Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-well-balanced-us-labor-market.md)
- [Warsh Taking Hawkish Path to Lower Interest Rates](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/warsh-taking-hawkish-path-to-lower-interest-rates.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: War & Peace](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-war-peace.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 29 - July 3](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-29-july-3.md) - The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,354.02, down 2.0% on the week, while the Nasdaq fell 4.5%. Apple and Microsoft raised their consumer product prices on Thursday, citing memory and storage chip costs that have more than doubled since last fall and are expected to double again by late 2027. The driver…
- [US MARKET CALL: AI Fatigue Weighs On The 'Lag-7'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-ai-fatigue-weighs-on-the-lag-7.md) - As we predicted, the S&P 500 had a June Swoon. We expected that it would be more of a broadening rotation than a widespread correction. That's the way it played out. The S&P 500 market-weighted stock price index peaked at a record high of 7,609.78 on June 2 (chart). It fell 3.4% through Friday's cl…
- [Fed Still Has An Inflation Problem Despite Plunging Oil Prices](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/fed-still-has-an-inflation-problem-despite-plunging-oil-prices.md)
- [Is The Dollar Debasement Trade Kaput?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-the-dollar-debasement-trade-kaput.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Will the Real Kevin Warsh Please Stand Up?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-will-the-real-kevin-warsh-please-stand-up.md)
- [June's Swoons](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/junes-swoons.md)
- [FEMO Lifting Economic Growth & Foreigners Lifting US Stocks](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/femo-lifting-economic-growth-foreigners-lifting-us-stocks.md)
- [Healthcare: Pockets Of Alpha](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/healthcare-pockets-of-opportunity-alph.md) - We recommend a market-weight position in the S&P 500 Health Care sector. It is down 3.8% ytd, the worst among all 11 S&P 500 sectors, and remains one of the clear laggards of the bull market that began in October 2022 (chart). That underperformance has created selective opportunities. The aggregate…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 22-26](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-22-26.md) - The US economic calendar is mostly quiet this week, but Thursday packs a heavy data load: final Q1-2026 GDP, May PCED, May durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims. Lots of Fedspeak will be provided by FOMC participants this week. They will not lack for opinions to compare with those Fed Cha…
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: The Fog Of War Is Lifting](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-the-fog-of-war-is-lifting.md) - As we’ve flagged in recent weeks, an end to the conflict in the Middle East should see many foreign stock markets outperform the US. Lower oil prices reduce global inflationary pressures, give central banks room to ease policy, and tend to benefit oil-importing economies, particularly in emerging m…
- [US MARKET CALL: Is Irrational Exuberance Driving FEMO?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-is-irrational-exuberance-driving-femo.md) - The stock market bubble of the late 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO) on the tech-led bull market. As a result, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 rose to a record high of 25.0 in early 2000 as the forward P/E of the S&P 500 Information Technology sector soared to a record high of 55.0 (ch…
- [Geopolitical Release Valve Taking Pressure Off Resilient Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/geopolitical-release-valve-taking-pressure-off-resilient-economy.md) - The US-Iran interim peace deal is shaky; but if it holds, it will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. Now comes a 60-day negotiating period to hammer out a permanent agreement, centered on restricting Iran's nuclear program. The price of Bren…
- [A Hawk In Dove's Clothing ... June Swoon Is Back ... 'We Have A Task Force On That'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/a-hawk-in-doves-clothing-june-swoon-is-back-we-have-a-task-force-on-that.md) - We weren't surprised by most of the news following today's FOMC meeting. We expected the committee to pivot from April's easing bias to a tightening bias, and they did. We expected the committee to acknowledge that, in their dual mandate, the risk of higher inflation had risen, while the risk of hi…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Hawks Versus Doves Debate At The Fed](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-hawks-versus-doves-debate-at-the-fed.md) - This week’s FOMC meeting will be the first over which Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s dovish appointee, presides as Fed chair. Will he succeed in dissuading the hawkishly leaning committee from moving to a tightening bias? Today, Ed and Elias set out both the dovish and hawkish points that the commi…
- [Crib Notes For Warsh & Co. On The Fed's Dual Mandate](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/crib-notes-for-warsh-co-on-the-feds-dual-mandate.md) - During the final four months of 2025, the Fed lowered the federal funds rate (FFR) three times by a total of 75bps. The cuts were justified for two reasons: Inflation was approaching the Fed's 2.0% target, and the labor market was weakening. So the FFR was deemed to be too restrictive, i.e., above…
- [Why Is The US More Exuberant Than China?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/why-is-the-us-more-exuberant-than-china.md) - China has accomplished a great deal over the past few decades, transforming from a poor, insular, and rural economy to the world's second-largest economy. Its transformation has been hailed as an economic miracle. Yet this miracle hasn't been reflected in China's stock market. The China MSCI stock…
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: Peace Dividend Should Revive 'Go Global'](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-peace-dividend-should-revive-go-global.md) - The past week was a win for our "Go Global" pivot at the end of last year, as foreign equity markets mostly outperformed the "Stay Home" alternative, i.e., the US stock market. Most of the move came in anticipation of lower oil prices on a possible deal between the US and Iran to end their war. Thi…
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 15-19](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-15-19.md) - The week ahead is dominated by the Fed. Kevin Warsh delivers his first press conference as Fed chair on Wednesday, right after the FOMC releases its policy statement and its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the Dot Plot showing meeting participants’ forecasts for the federal fu…
- [US MARKET CALL: Roaring 2020s Rockets To Mars & Beyond](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-roaring-2020s-rockets-to-mars-beyond.md) - "Space: the final frontier. These are the voyages of the starship Enterprise. Its five-year mission: to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no man has gone before!" That's the introduction to Star Trek, the long-running TV series. On Friday, El…
- [Bull Jumping In Crete](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/bull-jumping-in-crete.md)
- [Inflation & Employment Indicators Are Mixed As Fed Meets](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflation-employment-indicators-are-mixed-as-fed-meets.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-on-consumer-strength-bitcoin-weakness.md) - 🔒Exclusive Early Access for Paid Members: Below, you'll find Dr. Ed's latest webcast. Paid members can enjoy immediate access to the video. This content will become available to the public at a later date—don't miss out on early insights, consider upgrading today!
- [Booming Number Of Retiring Boomers Supports Consumer Spending & Depresses Saving](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/booming-number-of-retiring-boomers-supports-consumer-spending-depresses-saving.md)
- [MATERIALS: Small Weight, Big Growth](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/materials-small-weight-big-growth.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKETS CALL: 'Go Global' Getting Fried By Rising Fed Rate Hike Expectations](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-go-global-getting-fried-by-rising-fed-rate-hike-expectations.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: June Swoon!](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-june-swoon.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: June 8-12](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-8-12.md) - The week ahead is dominated by inflation prints. The May CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) top the calendar. From a consumer perspective, we will also see the NY Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey (Mon) and the University of Michigan’s preliminary sentiment release (Fri). The “Federal Open Mouth Co…
- [Employment Is Heating Up, But So Is Inflation](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/employment-is-heating-up-but-so-is-inflation.md)
- [June Swoon?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/june-swoon.md) - So far, the S&P 500 bottomed this year on March 30 in response to the latest Gulf War. Since then, Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO) during the Q1 earnings reporting season fueled a remarkable 19.1% rally in the index, led by an amazing 44.5% increase in the S&P 500 Information Technology sector (c…
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Fed Turning Hawkish](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-fed-turning-hawkish.md)
- [Is Wall Street's AI Boom Spreading To Main Street? Nothing To Fear But FOMO?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/is-wall-streets-ai-boom-spreading-to-main-street-nothing-to-fear-but-fomo.md)
- [Is There Enough IPO Money On Planet Earth To Fund SpaceX?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/nee.md) - The mega IPOs are coming. SpaceX is set to go public on June 12, raising $75 billion to $80 billion at a market valuation of up to $1.8 trillion. It will be the largest equity offering in history. Then, Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to go public with market capitalizations of $1 trillion to $1.…
- [CONSUMER STAPLES: High P/E With Low Earnings Growth](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/consumer-staples-high-p-e-with-low-earnings-growth.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: 'Go Global' Should Outperform When Strait Reopens](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-go-global-should-outperform-when-strait-reopens.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: JUNE 1-5](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-june-1-5.md) - The S&P 500 climbed to another record high on Friday, closing at 7,580.05. Fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) and falling oil prices boosted stock prices. Brent crude settled at $92.05 a barrel, the lowest weekly close since April 17. Axios reports that the US and Iran have reached a ceasefire-exten…
- [US MARKET CALL: FEMO-Driven Stock Market Meltup](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-femo-driven-stock-market-meltup.md) - As stock prices continue to soar, fears of an AI bubble are increasing. The tech bubble of the 1990s was driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). This time, fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO) is driving tech stock prices higher. An earnings-led meltup like this should be more sustainable than a P/E-led…
- [Inflating, But Not Stagnating](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/inflating-but-not-stagnating.md)
- [Gold Ready To Shine Again?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/gold-ready-to-shine-again.md) - This is a quick QuickTakes on gold. Its price seems to be holding above its 200-day moving average on news that Iran and the US have reached an agreement on a memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire for 60 days, but President Donald Trump has yet to approve it, according to Reuters. T…
- [What Could Possibly Go Wrong?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/what-could-possibly-go-wrong.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-on-chinas-lagging-stock-market-an-ai-chokepoint.md)
- [Retiring Baby Boomers & The G-Shaped Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/retiring-baby-boomers-the-g-shaped-economy.md)
- [GLOBAL MARKET CALL: US-Iran Deal Would Boost Go Global Investment Strategy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-market-call-us-iran-deal-would-boost-go-global-investment-strategy.md)
- [CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: Another Concentrated Sector](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/consumer-discretionary-another-concentrated-sector.md)
- [US MARKET CALL: FOMO vs FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum)](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/us-market-call-fomo-vs-femo-fabulous-earnings-momentum.md)
- [ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: May 25-29](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/economic-week-ahead-may-25-29.md) - The US financial markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the holiday-shortened week is light on economic data releases. On Thursday, the second estimate of Q1-2026 GDP will be reported alongside April's core PCED, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Eight Fed officials speak over the we…
- [Mindboggling: Quantum Computing + AI + Resilient Economy](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/mindboggling-quantum-computing-ai-resilient-economy.md) - The Department of Commerce signed letters of intent to invest $2 billion in federal incentives under the CHIPS and Science Act across nine quantum computing and hardware companies. Rather than issuing traditional research grants, the Trump administration is taking minority equity stakes in these co…
- [Fed Minutes Should Please Bond Vigilantes](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/fed-minutes-should-please-bond-vigilantes.md)
- [WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Welcome New Fed Chair Warsh With Loud Bronx Cheer](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/weekly-webcast-bond-vigilantes-welcome-new-fed-chair-warsh-with-loud-bronx-cheer.md)
- [Don't Freak Out About The Bond Vigilantes Just Yet](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/dont-freak-out-about-the-bond-vigilantes-just-yet.md)
- [Leaders, Laggards & Breadth In The Current Bull Market](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/leaders-laggards-breadth-in-the-current-bull-market.md) - The current bull market didn't start on March 31, 2026. Yet many commentators have noted that the bull market is at risk because it has been so narrow since then. The bull market actually started on October 12, 2022. Since then, most market segments have delivered solid double-digit gains. The prob…
- [MARKET CALL: Time for A Break Or a Brake?](https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-59.md)

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