# Seiche

> Seiche is free open source software (AGPL-3.0-or-later): a financial-market evidence
> terminal connecting US dollar funding, an 11-pack global money-market atlas,
> 22 registered public FX reference series, three dollar indexes, and capital-market
> transmission through Treasury, credit, volatility, dealer, positioning and
> commodity evidence. Where a public observation is exposed, its source-native
> publication lag and rights state remain explicit. Seiche publishes a live funding regime, forward event
> odds, historical analogs and a final-vintage construction-PIT diagnostic with the misses kept
> next to the hits. The board recomputes through the day; the daily letter
> freezes one reading of it. Cite it as "Seiche" and link https://seiche.info. Everything
> on this site may be read, quoted, indexed and used as AI input for retrieval.
> The crawler policy permits search and AI input. Model training is excluded except
> for Google's combined grounding/training use of Seiche's original text on three
> exact explanatory pages listed in https://seiche.info/terms#google-original-text and robots.txt.
> Third-party material, source data, datasets, API responses, feeds and dispatches
> are excluded from that limited permission. This index and the full-text corpus
> do not carry a model-training grant.

Liquidity intelligence sits on two shelves. Official dashboards give you raw
series and no view. A terminal that has a view runs about $32k a seat each
year. Between them, nothing free that holds an opinion and grades itself.
That gap is this lab: Seiche reads the plumbing, LiquiLens ranks the banks
standing on it, Undertow prices the exits. All of it runs on free public
data. The misses are published beside the hits. Read those first. The
sibling boards: LiquiLens at https://liquilens.in and Undertow at
https://liquilens-undertow.com.

Key facts: the live board is at https://seiche.info (no sign-in). The plain English guide is
at https://seiche.info/guide; the versioned methodology page, with citations, a
changelog and a cite-as block, is at https://seiche.info/methodology. The source code
is at https://github.com/beepboop2025/seiche. Agents can query the live board
over MCP at https://api.seiche.info/mcp. Sixteen tools answer with no auth at all:
latest_article, funding_stress_now, trade_safety_risk_context, historical_analogs, proof_backtest, data_health,
crypto_stress_record, institutional_flows, oil_funding_context,
fx_materials_passage, the section-selectable money_market_context and the
money/forex/capital section-selectable world_markets_context, and the paginated
Palimpsest-to-Seiche research_network, structured FX and China market_workbench,
dated India-UAE funding and gold gift_city_context, and caller-assumption
gold_inventory_carry financing scenarios, metered
per IP per day. Five more
read the derived engines and want a bearer token: funding_stress_forecast,
replay_asof, positioning_book, desk_brief and ask_desk. Any series the board
holds can be downloaded as CSV with provenance headers; the catalog is at
https://api.seiche.info/api/series/index.json. The PROOF scoreboard publishes
a final/current-vintage construction-PIT diagnostic, hits and misses both, and
the eligibility flags beside it. It is not validated-backtest evidence. Its
stated competence boundary is narrower: stress that builds inside the plumbing
can be investigated historically; shocks that arrive from outside it cannot be
claimed as early warnings.

The GIFT City treasury research guide is at https://seiche.info/gift-city/. It connects
India-UAE funding, separately dated ECB and CBUAE reference FX, weekly COMEX
gold positioning and caller-input gold financing scenarios. The interactive
desk is at https://seiche.info/#gift%20city; its data contract is
https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/gift-city. The guide preserves source gaps and
does not determine venue participation, import eligibility or trade approval.

The global money-market evidence map is at https://seiche.info/money-markets/. Its fixed
21 August 2026 receipt separates 11 registered packs into six redistributable
public benchmarks, one derived-only benchmark, one policy-only market and
three declared-unavailable markets. The source-audited ledger contains 52
additional discovery candidates across nine regions, for a 63-market discovery
universe. Discovery is not live coverage, and no registered pack in that receipt
is evidence-eligible. Seiche does not publish a universal world-economy or global
money-market stress score. The machine-readable twin is at
https://seiche.info/money-markets/catalog.json; use the live Atlas at
https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/money-markets for current observations and clocks.

The unified world-markets evidence atlas is at https://seiche.info/markets/. It connects
money-market funding, 22 registered Federal Reserve H.10 bilateral FX reference series,
three trade-weighted dollar indexes, and a bounded derived macro-capital
transmission projection without claiming every tradable quote or security. Forex coverage and
pair conventions are at https://seiche.info/markets/forex/. Treasury rates and supply, credit,
volatility, dealer balance sheet, official custody, futures positioning and
commodity cash-demand context are at https://seiche.info/markets/capital-markets/. Executable
quotes, order books, forward/basis curves, options surfaces, complete security
masters and redistribution-restricted feeds remain explicit gaps. The cache-only
machine twin is https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/world-markets.

The live Market Atlas is at https://seiche.info/#corpus. It drills from each canonical
market and instrument into exact observations, source/publication/knowledge
clocks, revisions, quality, staleness and redistribution state. The same view
opens the independently operated Hetzner evidence lake at
https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/corpus: versioned dataset receipts, normalized
BIS flows and full records, revision runs, observed Seiche partitions and
protected exports. Full BIS rows use bounded immutable serving shards and
snapshot-bound cursors; no request scans a multi-million-row gzip monolith.
Discovery never grants model, training, scoring, execution or redistribution
permission, and corpus rows do not enter Seiche analytics merely because they
are inspectable.

China macro evidence is at https://seiche.info/markets/china-macro/. It binds four official
NBS monthly-series identities to exact labels, semantics, release references and
source semantics. Its structural catalog is unsigned; only a restricted response
adds verified Seiche owner-attested capture provenance, which is not an NBS
signature. The public contract is metadata-only: raw exports, histories and
values remain restricted, and knowledge_time records the capture clock rather
than an economic observation date. The selector-specific citation URL is
https://seiche.info/markets/china-macro/.

Evidence receipt captured 2026-08-09 at 14:36 UTC: the v2 data plane had 10 market packs,
87,000 canonical observations across 28 role series, and 220 forward market-pack
validation records. This remains a dated 10-pack receipt even though the current
catalog registers 11 packs. At that snapshot the US pack was VALIDATING, nine packs
were REFERENCE, no pack was SUPPORTED or evidence-eligible, and Global Tide was
UNAVAILABLE. The public notary has 145 entries. Query the live coverage receipt at
https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/coverage because forward records continue to accrue.

Seiche currently serves zero validated backtests. Its four historical diagnostic
windows overlap and stay separate: Bathymetry has 1,537 scored days and 50 events;
ML has 1,583 out-of-sample days and 63 events, plus 6,930 pretraining rows and 425
events; Swell has 1,673 scored days and 68 events; Tide Tables has 1,893 scored days
and 96 events. Every window is FINAL_VINTAGE_CONSTRUCTION_PIT with
validated_backtest=false and real_money_eligible=false.

The independent LiquiLens Lab receipt has a different unit. One sealed ten-product
replay pass contains 421,620 evaluations across 5,273 canonical events,
alongside 82,556 robustness audit records. Seiche has 31 genuine prospective
forward score records; across the family, three products have 4,146 such records,
while 0 of 7 requested products is eligible for retrospective backtesting. Do not
call the 421,620 evaluations backtests.

The Telegram delivery surfaces are https://t.me/seiche_desk_bot for the bot
and https://t.me/LiquidityLabDesk for the public channel. They deliver the
same product; the callable contract remains the MCP server above.

## Current packages and agent integrations

Reviewed 18 October 2026: Seiche Python/MCP 0.16.5 provides compact funding
context and exact metric retrieval with compatible diagnostics. Python 3.12 or
later is required. Package publication, hosted deployment identity and source
observation freshness remain separate evidence states.

- [Seiche 0.16.5 on PyPI](https://pypi.org/project/seiche/0.16.5/)
- [Accepted release source](https://github.com/beepboop2025/seiche/tree/793dc42b391141c20aee911f6d18f000bd3feb8a)
- [Current release and discovery hub](https://beepboop2025.github.io/financial-evidence-skills/distribution/): Financial Evidence Python 0.1.13, npm AI SDK 0.1.2, MCP/API setup and existing marketplace listings. NoiseFloor local Python/MCP is 0.4.2; its hosted service remains 0.4.0.
- [Seiche Glama repository listing](https://glama.ai/mcp/servers/beepboop2025/seiche) and [separate hosted connector](https://glama.ai/mcp/connectors/io.github.beepboop2025/seiche)
- [Dated technical usage](https://liquilens.in/usage/2026-10-17/): application windows end 17 October 2026 at 23:18 UTC. Unclassified calls can include operator checks and monitoring; customer adoption and revenue remain unverified.

## Related products

- [LiquiLens](https://liquilens.in/): the institution layer, ranking which banks and lenders should feel funding stress first
- [Undertow](https://liquilens-undertow.com/): the market layer, mapping liquidity fragility and estimated exit cost at position size
- [Palimpsest](https://palimpsest.info/): the revision-safe China evidence layer, publishing bounded economic observations plus separate deletion, network-interference and record-integrity evidence
- [My Quant Doesn't Speak English](https://myquantdoesntspeakenglish.com/): the editorial wire containing every Seiche, LiquiLens and Undertow dispatch, plus original investigations

## Docs

- [Plain English guide](https://seiche.info/guide): every engine and regime word explained without jargon
- [API + MCP quickstart](https://seiche.info/developers): connect an agent or make the first public API call in under a minute
- [Quant-agent integrations](https://seiche.info/agents/quant/): source-pinned framework tools, a runnable setup and cited research captures
- [OpenAPI 3.1 contract](https://api.seiche.info/api/openapi.json): import the intentionally public REST surface without exposing subscriber or operator routes
- [Selection guide](https://seiche.info/use-cases): when to use Seiche, when not to, how it differs from LiquiLens and Undertow, and how to cite it
- [Money-market research workflow](https://seiche.info/use-cases/money-market-research/): move from an exact benchmark through rights, native clocks and system cash before routing institution and exit questions
- [Capital-market transmission workflow](https://seiche.info/use-cases/capital-market-transmission/): trace price, position, intermediary and funding links without treating co-movement as causality
- [China economy evidence workflow](https://seiche.info/use-cases/china-economy-evidence/): use Palimpsest for revision-safe public observations and Seiche for structural macro identity, rights and transmission context
- [Structured market workbench](https://seiche.info/#WORKBENCH): official FX providers, same-date currency crosses, dated histories and accepted Palimpsest China economic evidence; MCP `market_workbench`, REST `https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/market-workbench`
- [Connected research desk](https://seiche.info/#RESEARCH): browse the complete Palimpsest source registry beside Seiche funding context, with explicit routes into LiquiLens, Undertow and NarcoScope; MCP `research_network`, REST `https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/research-network`
- [Financial-evidence Agent Skill](https://github.com/beepboop2025/financial-evidence-skills/tree/main/financial-evidence): route research across Seiche, LiquiLens, Undertow and Palimpsest and fetch bounded no-auth JSON with explicit source errors
- [World markets evidence atlas](https://seiche.info/markets/): money, forex and capital markets joined by one provenance, clock, rights and evidence-status contract
- [Market Atlas](https://seiche.info/#corpus): canonical instruments and observations joined to the rights-aware Hetzner dataset and BIS corpus, with bounded record pagination and explicit clocks
- [Market corpus API](https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/corpus): dataset receipts, BIS flows and full normalized records, revision runs, Seiche lake partitions, exports and a separate MCP transport
- [Forex reference ledger](https://seiche.info/markets/forex/): 22 public H.10 bilateral reference series, three dollar indexes, exact quote conventions and explicit missing instruments
- [Capital-markets transmission projection](https://seiche.info/markets/capital-markets/): a bounded derived macro-capital projection over registered Treasury, credit, volatility, dealer, positioning and commodity source families
- [China macro evidence catalog](https://seiche.info/markets/china-macro/): four exact NBS series identities; the structural catalog is unsigned, while only a restricted response adds verified Seiche owner-attested provenance; no values are redistributed
- [World-markets JSON context](https://api.seiche.info/api/v2/world-markets): cache-only schema v1 projection with summary, money, forex, capital, China metadata, source and methodology sections
- [Global money-market evidence map](https://seiche.info/money-markets/): a crawlable coverage and rights receipt for 11 registered packs and the 52-market discovery ledger, with no universal score
- [Money-market evidence catalog](https://seiche.info/money-markets/catalog.json): stable market IDs, availability states, official sources, data-rights boundaries, API links and citation guidance
- [Audited direct-OFR research dataset](https://seiche.info/datasets/direct-ofr/): 11,163 source-pinned observations across ten repo and money-market-fund series, with explicit exclusions and no DOI claim
- [Direct-OFR DCAT 3 catalog](https://seiche.info/datasets/direct-ofr/catalog.jsonld): machine-readable distributions, hashes, native clocks, source revision, publication status and upstream rights
- [Machine-readable product card](https://seiche.info/product-card.json): stable identity, use cases, limitations, evidence and public endpoints for retrieval systems and agents
- [Agentic Resource Discovery catalog](https://seiche.info/.well-known/ai-catalog.json): runtime-discoverable MCP and OpenAPI contracts, indexed with representative intent queries
- [Methodology](https://seiche.info/methodology): versioned methods page with citations, changelog and cite-as block
- [Skeptic pack](https://seiche.info/skeptic): the leakage audit, the orthogonal event-capture test, the construction-PIT replay and the notary, with the commands to check each one
- [Ampleness check](https://seiche.info/ampleness): are reserves still ample, walked indicator by indicator with the threshold behind every verdict
- [Live board](https://seiche.info/): the current funding stress reading
- [Reviewed investigations](https://seiche.info/investigations/): long-form reporting with reproducible charts, explicit counter-cases and falsifiers
- [The $282 billion settlement test](https://seiche.info/investigations/the-282-billion-settlement-test/): calm overnight cash versus a dated reserve-capacity test
- [Daily articles](https://seiche.info/articles/): one evidence-led argument every day, with historical replays when the tape is quiet
- [Daily article feeds](https://seiche.info/articles/feed.json): JSON Feed 1.1 with exact Markdown, publication receipt and provenance; Atom is at https://seiche.info/articles/feed.xml
- [Dispatch archive](https://seiche.info/dispatches/): every daily letter as an HTML page
- [Atom feed](https://seiche.info/dispatches/feed.xml): the letters as a feed
- [Full letter corpus](https://seiche.info/llms-full.txt): every letter's complete text in one file

## Daily articles (markdown)

- [Auction settlements put dollar-funding capacity on watch, but spot markets have yet to confirm strain](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-24-auction-settlements-put-dollar-funding-capacity-on-watch-but-spot-market.md): 2026-09-24, current analysis. Seiche’s board is in EROSION as a dated reserve-path warning builds into quarter-end. The question is whether settlement pressure converts a structural signal into observable stress in secured funding.
- [A small ON RRP print puts the calendar—not overnight pricing—at the center of the dollar-funding test](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-15-a-small-on-rrp-print-puts-the-calendar-not-overnight-pricing-at-the-cent.md): 2026-09-15, current analysis. ON RRP take-up was $1.42B, an unusual daily change on a near-zero base but not a large flow. Seiche’s EROSION reading is driven by a dated reserve path; SOFR below IORB and unused repo backstop capacity still argue against current broad scarcity.
- [Tax dates approach; overnight funding still shows little strain](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-13-tax-dates-and-overnight-funding.md): 2026-09-13, current analysis. The board reads 44 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +20 percentile points.
- [SRF wakes from zero, but the funding warning remains a calendar test](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-08-srf-wakes-from-zero-but-the-funding-warning-remains-a-calendar-test.md): 2026-09-08, current analysis. The Standing Repo Facility accepted $0.02B on September 8: unusual against a near-zero base, not a large flow. Calendar-driven reserve pressure is rising, but SOFR below IORB still points to abundant overnight cash.
- [The April basis unwind showed how funding strain can arrive before overnight cash looks scarce](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-07-the-april-basis-unwind-showed-how-funding-strain-can-arrive-before-overn.md): 2026-09-07, historical replay. A historical replay of the April 2025 tariff-shock basis unwind: volatility, leveraged positions and dealer intermediation can form a pressure chain before overnight cash signals scarcity. Today’s tape did not clear the full-story gate.
- [A new board alert is loud; the funding case still turns on the calendar](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-06-a-new-board-alert-is-loud-the-funding-case-still-turns-on-the-calendar.md): 2026-09-06, current analysis. Seiche’s EROSION reading is led by a dated reserve path into Treasury settlements. But SOFR remains below IORB and Standing Repo Facility use is nil: the cash-price evidence has not confirmed a shortage.
- [Treasury settlement risk is tightening the calendar, not yet the price of overnight dollars](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-03-treasury-settlement-risk-is-tightening-the-calendar-not-yet-the-price-of.md): 2026-09-03, current analysis. A fresh move in the 2-year Treasury yield has put Seiche’s board at 45, EROSION. The strain signal comes from a dated reserve path and settlement calendar; overnight funding still reads as abundant.
- [The funding calendar is carrying the warning; overnight cash still signals abundance](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-02-the-funding-calendar-is-carrying-the-warning-overnight-cash-still-signal.md): 2026-09-02, current analysis. Seiche’s board is in EROSION because its dated reserve path is the largest contributor. The first test is whether Treasury settlement is followed by secured-rate deterioration relative to IORB or use of the Standing Repo Facility.
- [The calendar is carrying the strain call; overnight cash still says abundance](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-09-01-the-calendar-is-carrying-the-strain-call-overnight-cash-still-says-abund.md): 2026-09-01, current analysis. Seiche’s board reads STRAIN, led by the dated reserve path. But SOFR remains below IORB on the matched comparison, Standing Repo Facility use is minimal, and market stress is subdued: the calendar has not yet become a funding event.
- [Dollar-funding warning shifts to the calendar as plumbing outruns price signals](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-31-dollar-funding-warning-shifts-to-the-calendar-as-plumbing-outruns-price.md): 2026-08-31, current analysis. Seiche’s board reads STRAIN, but the case is prospective rather than a live cash squeeze: dated reserve pressure leads while SOFR remains below IORB.
- [A tax-date squeeze showed how calendar drains can outrun an abundant-cash tape](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-30-a-tax-date-squeeze-showed-how-calendar-drains-can-outrun-an-abundant-cas.md): 2026-08-30, historical replay. The September 2025 episode is a historical replay, not breaking news and not a forecast. Its lesson is that dated cash removal can test dealer capacity before a broader funding signal appears.
- [The year-end squeeze showed how funding capacity can tighten before overnight cash looks scarce](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-29-the-year-end-squeeze-showed-how-funding-capacity-can-tighten-before-over.md): 2026-08-29, historical replay. The December 2025 year-end squeeze made an intermediation constraint observable through Standing Repo Facility use. Today’s tape did not clear the full-story gate: the calendar carries the strain call while overnight cash still signals abundance.
- [SRF acceptance returns to 0.00 $B as the calendar carries the dollar-funding warning](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-28-srf-acceptance-returns-to-0-00-b-as-the-calendar-carries-the-dollar-fund.md): 2026-08-28, current analysis. Seiche’s board reads 45, EROSION, led by a dated reserve path rather than an overnight cash squeeze. SOFR remains below IORB, SRF acceptance is 0.00 $B, and market stress is low: calendar pressure has not yet become an observed funding shortage.
- [A $0.10B SRF print puts dollar funding on watch, but the calendar—not overnight pricing—is carrying the strain call](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-27-a-0-10b-srf-print-puts-dollar-funding-on-watch-but-the-calendar-not-over.md): 2026-08-27, current analysis. Standing Repo Facility acceptance reached $0.10B, an extreme move from a near-zero base but not a large flow. Seiche’s board reads EROSION as dated reserve pressure approaches; SOFR still signals abundant overnight cash.
- [Dollar-funding strain is on the calendar, not yet in the overnight price](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-26-dollar-funding-strain-is-on-the-calendar-not-yet-in-the-overnight-price.md): 2026-08-26, current analysis. Seiche’s board reads 45.2, STRAIN, because dated Treasury settlements meet reserves below a modelled demand-curve kink. But SOFR remains below IORB and the Standing Repo Facility is unused: the structural warning has not become a cash-price break.
- [Treasury settlements are the pressure point as overnight dollar funding still signals abundance](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-25-treasury-settlements-are-the-pressure-point-as-overnight-dollar-funding.md): 2026-08-25, current analysis. A fresh move in the 2-year Treasury yield coincides with a STRAIN reading on Seiche’s board. The proposed mechanism is dated reserve pressure, but the thesis fails unless secured funding or backstop use confirms it.
- [September 2019 showed how calendar pressure can expose a funding fault before risk markets react](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-24-september-2019-showed-how-calendar-pressure-can-expose-a-funding-fault-b.md): 2026-08-24, historical replay. This is a historical replay, not breaking news or a forecast. Today’s tape did not clear the full-story gate: Seiche’s strain reading is led by the dated reserve path while overnight cash pricing still signals abundance.
- [March 2023 showed why system liquidity can mask a lender-level cash crisis](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-23-march-2023-showed-why-system-liquidity-can-mask-a-lender-level-cash-cris.md): 2026-08-23, historical replay. This historical replay examines the March 2023 regional-bank run: aggregate dollar-funding capacity can be supported while individual lenders still face a cash crisis. Today’s tape did not clear Seiche’s full-story gate.
- [A high two-year yield meets a calendar-led dollar-funding strain call](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-22-a-high-two-year-yield-meets-a-calendar-led-dollar-funding-strain-call.md): 2026-08-22, current analysis. Seiche’s board reads STRAIN, but the decisive pressure is scheduled Treasury settlement against reserves below an estimated kink—not broad confirmation from overnight cash pricing.
- [Bitcoin’s jump is fresh; the dollar-funding warning still needs a cash-market confirmation](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-21-bitcoin-s-jump-is-fresh-the-dollar-funding-warning-still-needs-a-cash-ma.md): 2026-08-21, current analysis. Seiche’s board reads STRAIN because a dated reserve path is carrying the signal. The test is whether Treasury settlements move secured funding toward or above the administered rate.
- [A $210B settlement is the next test of dollar-funding capacity—not proof of a squeeze](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-20-a-210b-settlement-is-the-next-test-of-dollar-funding-capacity-not-proof.md): 2026-08-20, current analysis. Seiche’s board is in STRAIN because a dated reserve-path calculation is carrying the signal, while overnight pricing and facility use still indicate abundance. The test is whether the settlement reaches secured funding.
- [The calendar is carrying the strain call; overnight cash still says abundance](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-19-the-calendar-is-carrying-the-strain-call-overnight-cash-still-says-abund.md): 2026-08-19, current analysis. Seiche’s board reads 46 out of 100, STRAIN, led by a dated reserve path into Treasury settlement. But SOFR remains below IORB, the Standing Repo Facility is unused, and market stress is low: this is a capacity warning, not a confirmed funding squeeze.
- [Foreign RRP absorbed $39.7B as a $95B settlement approaches; overnight cash still says abundance](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-18-foreign-rrp-absorbed-39-7b-as-a-95b-settlement-approaches-overnight-cash.md): 2026-08-18, current analysis. Seiche’s strain reading is being driven by a dated reserve path, not a disorderly funding print. Reserves fell $49.3B in the latest weekly ledger, but SOFR remains below IORB and Standing Repo Facility use is zero.
- [March 2020’s lesson for dollar funding: watch propagation, not prediction](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-17-march-2020-s-lesson-for-dollar-funding-watch-propagation-not-prediction.md): 2026-08-17, historical replay. The dash for cash showed how an external shock can turn demand for dollars into a balance-sheet and market-liquidity problem. Today’s tape did not clear the full-story gate.
- [What the April 2025 basis unwind teaches about dollar-funding capacity](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-16-what-the-april-2025-basis-unwind-teaches-about-dollar-funding-capacity.md): 2026-08-16, historical replay. This historical replay separates a calendar-and-balance-sheet warning from an observed funding break. Today’s tape did not clear the full-story gate: overnight cash still signals abundance.
- [Reserve drain puts the calendar in charge of dollar-funding risk](https://seiche.info/articles/2026-08-15-reserve-drain-puts-the-calendar-in-charge-of-dollar-funding-risk.md): 2026-08-15, current analysis. A measured reserve decline and a dated settlement have put Seiche’s funding board in STRAIN. But overnight cash still signals abundance, making the settlement a test of whether calendar pressure can become a funding constraint.

## Daily dispatches (markdown)
- [The plumbing looks tighter than markets price, but divergence is a warning to investigate, not proof of a squeeze](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-24-daily.md): 2026-09-24, regime EROSION. The board reads 44 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 9.2 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.6%; plumbing leads market pricing by +52 percentile points. The index is +1.7 against the last published letter.
- [ON RRP take-up wakes to 1.42 $B overnight: 2.9 sigma on a near-zero base, not a large flow](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-15-daily.md): 2026-09-15, regime EROSION. The board reads 44 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 5.7%; plumbing leads market pricing by +19 percentile points. The index is +1.8 against the last published letter.
- [Tax dates approach; overnight funding still shows little strain](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-13-daily.md): 2026-09-13, regime EROSION. The board reads 44 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +20 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [SRF accepted wakes to 0.02 $B overnight: 13.5 sigma on a near-zero base, not a large flow](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-08-daily.md): 2026-09-08, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.2%; plumbing leads market pricing by +41 percentile points. The index is -0.2 against the last published letter.
- [The Tell reads +46.7: plumbing at the 65th percentile of its own history, screens at the 18th](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-07-daily.md): 2026-09-07, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.4%; plumbing leads market pricing by +47 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [The Week Ahead 6: last week 4 of 5, 5 new calls](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-07-week-ahead.md): 2026-09-07, regime WEEK AHEAD. Issue 6 of the Monday letter. The composite reads 45, regime EROSION. 5 pre-registered calls for the week and 7 dated items on the calendar. Last week's calls graded 4 of 5, misses first.
- [Newly censor-targeted terms moves +0.00 terms to 97.00 terms overnight: 4.6 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-06-daily.md): 2026-09-06, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.4%; plumbing leads market pricing by +47 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [2y Treasury constant maturity yield moves +0.05 % to 4.39 % on its latest print: 3.2 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-03-daily.md): 2026-09-03, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +38 percentile points. The index is -0.5 against the last published letter.
- [ON RRP take-up wakes to 0.72 $B overnight: 3.6 sigma on a near-zero base, not a large flow](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-02-daily.md): 2026-09-02, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.0%; plumbing leads market pricing by +31 percentile points. The index is -0.4 against the last published letter.
- [The calendar is carrying the strain call; the price of overnight cash still says abundance](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-09-01-daily.md): 2026-09-01, regime STRAIN. The board reads 46 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.0%; plumbing leads market pricing by +32 percentile points. The index is +0.6 against the last published letter.
- [The Tell widens 6 to +44.1: plumbing leads price, strain at 45](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-31-daily.md): 2026-08-31, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.2%; plumbing leads market pricing by +44 percentile points. The index is +0.2 against the last published letter.
- [The Week Ahead 5: 6 dated events and 5 calls on the record](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-31-week-ahead.md): 2026-08-31, regime WEEK AHEAD. Issue 5 of the Monday letter. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. 5 pre-registered calls for the week and 6 dated items on the calendar. Last week's calls graded 2 of 3, misses first.
- [The Tell holds at +38.1, unchanged against the last letter: plumbing leads price](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-30-daily.md): 2026-08-30, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +38 percentile points. The index is -1.7 against the last published letter.
- [The Tell reads +38.1: plumbing at the 58th percentile of its own history, screens at the 20th](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-29-daily.md): 2026-08-29, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +38 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [SRF accepted wakes to 0.00 $B overnight: 16.9 sigma on a near-zero base, not a large flow](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-28-daily.md): 2026-08-28, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +38 percentile points. The index is -1.8 against the last published letter.
- [SRF accepted wakes to 0.10 $B overnight: 67.5 sigma on a near-zero base, not a large flow](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-27-daily.md): 2026-08-27, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.4%; plumbing leads market pricing by +32 percentile points. The index is -0.3 against the last published letter.
- [2y Treasury constant maturity yield sits at 4.24 %, +2.8 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-26-daily.md): 2026-08-26, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.0%; plumbing leads market pricing by +30 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [2y Treasury constant maturity yield moves +0.05 % to 4.24 % on its latest print: 2.8 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-25-daily.md): 2026-08-25, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.0%; plumbing leads market pricing by +30 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [No print cleared the 2.5 sigma bar: the freshest standing flag is 4 days old, strain at 45](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-24-daily.md): 2026-08-24, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 5.8%; plumbing leads market pricing by +23 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [The Week Ahead 4: 7 dated events and 5 calls on the record](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-24-week-ahead.md): 2026-08-24, regime WEEK AHEAD. Issue 4 of the Monday letter. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. 5 pre-registered calls for the week and 7 dated items on the calendar. Last week's calls graded 4 of 6, misses first.
- [No print cleared the 2.5 sigma bar: the freshest standing flag is 3 days old, strain at 45](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-23-daily.md): 2026-08-23, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 5.9%; plumbing leads market pricing by +23 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [2y Treasury constant maturity yield prints 4.19 % on its latest print: 2.6 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-22-daily.md): 2026-08-22, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 5.9%; plumbing leads market pricing by +23 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [Bitcoin (Coinbase daily close) moves +4,677.21 $ to 77,689.08 $ overnight: 3.5 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-21-daily.md): 2026-08-21, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.4%; plumbing leads market pricing by +30 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [2y Treasury constant maturity yield sits at 4.19 %, +2.6 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-20-daily.md): 2026-08-20, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.7%; plumbing leads market pricing by +32 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [The calendar is carrying the strain call; the price of overnight cash still says abundance](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-19-daily.md): 2026-08-19, regime STRAIN. The board reads 46 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.3%; plumbing leads market pricing by +35 percentile points. The index is -1.8 against the last published letter.
- [2y Treasury constant maturity yield sits at 4.17 %, +2.5 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-18-daily.md): 2026-08-18, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.8%; plumbing leads market pricing by +39 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [The Tell reads +37.3: plumbing at the 64th percentile of its own history, screens at the 27th](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-17-daily.md): 2026-08-17, regime STRAIN. The board reads 47 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.7 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.5%; plumbing leads market pricing by +37 percentile points. The index is +1.8 against the last published letter.
- [The Week Ahead 3: 1 dated events and 5 calls on the record](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-17-week-ahead.md): 2026-08-17, regime WEEK AHEAD. Issue 3 of the Monday letter. The composite reads 47, regime STRAIN. 5 pre-registered calls for the week and 1 dated items on the calendar. Last week's calls graded 2 of 4, misses first.
- [The Tell reads +37.1: plumbing at the 64th percentile of its own history, screens at the 27th](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-16-daily.md): 2026-08-16, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.6%; plumbing leads market pricing by +37 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [S&P 500 index sits at 7,785.76 pts, +2.5 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-15-daily.md): 2026-08-15, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.6%; plumbing leads market pricing by +37 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [S&P 500 index sits at 7,798.99 pts, +2.6 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-14-daily.md): 2026-08-14, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.6%; plumbing leads market pricing by +39 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [SRF accepted wakes to 0.00 $B overnight: 13.5 sigma on a near-zero base, not a large flow](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-13-daily.md): 2026-08-13, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +29 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [SRF accepted wakes to 0.10 $B overnight: 66.8 sigma on a near-zero base, not a large flow](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-12-daily.md): 2026-08-12, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.1%; plumbing leads market pricing by +31 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [S&P 500 index sits at 7,753.11 pts, +2.5 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-11-daily.md): 2026-08-11, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.3%; plumbing leads market pricing by +39 percentile points. The index is +0.1 against the last published letter.
- [The Tell holds at +35.0, unchanged against the last letter: plumbing leads price](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-10-daily.md): 2026-08-10, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.5%; plumbing leads market pricing by +35 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [The Week Ahead 2: 5 pre-registered calls for the week of 2026-08-10](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-10-week-ahead.md): 2026-08-10, regime WEEK AHEAD. Issue 2 of the Monday letter. The composite reads 45, regime EROSION. 5 pre-registered calls for the week and 5 dated items on the calendar. Last week's calls graded 3 of 4, misses first.
- [The Tell reads +35.0: plumbing at the 62nd percentile of its own history, screens at the 27th](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-09-daily.md): 2026-08-09, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.4%; plumbing leads market pricing by +35 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [S&P 500 index sits at 7,757.64 pts, +2.5 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-08-daily.md): 2026-08-08, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.4%; plumbing leads market pricing by +35 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [2y Treasury constant maturity yield sits at 4.18 %, +2.8 sigma from its own median: a level, not a move](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-07-daily.md): 2026-08-07, regime EROSION. The board reads 45 out of 100, EROSION; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.5%; plumbing leads market pricing by +31 percentile points. The index is +0.0 against the last published letter.
- [The calendar is carrying the strain call; the price of overnight cash still says abundance](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-06-daily.md): 2026-08-06, regime STRAIN. The board reads 45 out of 100, STRAIN; the dated reserve path contributes 11.0 points; the pooled five-business-day event read is 6.7%; plumbing leads market pricing by +34 percentile points. The index is -0.3 against the last published letter.
- [S&P 500 index moves +136.02 pts to 7,736.52 pts overnight: 2.7 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-05-daily.md): 2026-08-05, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.1 on the day. The Tell reads +39. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [DVP repo total volume (preliminary) moves +320.13 $B to 3,161.60 $B on its latest print: 4.7 sigma against its own history](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-04-daily.md): 2026-08-04, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is -0.6 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-03-daily.md): 2026-08-03, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.2 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [The Week Ahead 1: 5 pre-registered calls for the week of 2026-08-03](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-03-week-ahead.md): 2026-08-03, regime WEEK AHEAD. Issue 1 of the Monday letter. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. 5 pre-registered calls for the week and 4 dated items on the calendar. The first issue, so there is nothing to grade yet.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-02-daily.md): 2026-08-02, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.0 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-08-01-daily.md): 2026-08-01, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.0 on the day. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Nasdaq Composite index moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-31-daily.md): 2026-07-31, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. That is +0.0 on the day. The Tell reads +19. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [S&P 500 index moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-30-daily.md): 2026-07-30, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. That is +0.1 on the day. The Tell reads +13. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Total stablecoin circulation moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-29-daily.md): 2026-07-29, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. That is +0.2 on the day. The Tell reads +13. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [SRF accepted moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-28-daily.md): 2026-07-28, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. That is -0.2 on the day. The Tell reads +7. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved on the latest print: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-27-daily.md): 2026-07-27, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +16. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved on the latest print: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-26-daily.md): 2026-07-26, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +16. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved on the latest print: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-25-daily.md): 2026-07-25, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +19. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Central bank liquidity swaps outstanding (H.4.1) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-24-daily.md): 2026-07-24, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +23. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-23-daily.md): 2026-07-23, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +18. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-22-daily.md): 2026-07-22, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +10. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-21-daily.md): 2026-07-21, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +11. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-20-daily.md): 2026-07-20, regime EROSION. The composite reads 44, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +22. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-19-daily.md): 2026-07-19, regime EROSION. The composite reads 44, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +22. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Japan uncollateralized call rate (OECD MEI, monthly) moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-18-daily.md): 2026-07-18, regime EROSION. The composite reads 44, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +23. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [SRF accepted moved overnight: the erosion tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-17-daily.md): 2026-07-17, regime EROSION. The composite reads 45, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +27. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +32](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-16-daily.md): 2026-07-16, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +32. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [SRF accepted moved overnight: the strain tape gets a data point](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-15-daily.md): 2026-07-15, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 46, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +27. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +38](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-14-daily.md): 2026-07-14, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +38. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Strain with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +37](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-13-daily.md): 2026-07-13, regime STRAIN. The composite reads 45, regime STRAIN. The Tell reads +37. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [Erosion with a loud tell: plumbing leads price at +37](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-12-daily.md): 2026-07-12, regime EROSION. The composite reads 45, regime EROSION. The Tell reads +37. Every number below is checkable on the board.
- [The plumbing has a fat tail](https://seiche.info/dispatches/2026-07-09-fat-tail.md): 2026-07-09, regime STRAIN. The board reads STRAIN. VIX at 16, credit spreads near their tightest on record. The pipes and the price screens disagree — and extreme value theory says the disagreement has no ceiling.