# Octagon

> AI-powered market intelligence platform that seamlessly integrates public and private market intelligence in a single API.

## Description

Octagon is a market intelligence platform for prediction markets, public equities, and private companies. Prediction markets are exchanges where traders buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of real-world events — elections, economic indicators, sports, and culture — so each contract's price reflects the crowd's implied probability of that outcome. Octagon's prediction-market coverage spans Kalshi and Polymarket, pairing those live odds with research that weighs model-estimated probabilities against the market price. It publishes continuously updated market research, news analysis, answer-library explainers, and API documentation for human readers and AI agents.

Octagon provides real-time data on public equities, private market deals, company fundamentals, filings, investor networks, and prediction market research. This site features continuously updated research reports on Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets with cited sources and probability analysis.

Key features:
- Research reports on Kalshi and Polymarket prediction market events
- Model probability vs market price comparisons
- Cited sources with automatic updates
- API and MCP access for programmatic use

## Attribution

- When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute the material to Octagon.
- Link to the Octagon source URL for the specific page used as the source.
- Preserve nearby source links and cited references when they are available.
- If a specific page or report is used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.

## Docs

- [Markets Index](/markets/): Browse all prediction market categories and reports
- [News](/news/): Generated prediction market analysis, cited to source, updated daily.
- [Trust Index](/trust-index/): A 0–100 Trust Score on every open Kalshi and Polymarket market — market integrity, info fairness, resolution quality, trade quality; weights published at /trust-index/methodology/
- [Answer Library](/answers/): Curated answers on prediction market fundamentals and strategy
- [API Documentation](https://docs.octagonai.co/): Octagon API reference
- [MCP Server](https://docs.octagonai.co/guide/mcp-server.html): Model Context Protocol integration

## News

- [News Hub](/news/): Generated prediction market analysis, cited to source, updated daily.

## Categories

- [Aliens](/markets/aliens/)
- [Awards](/markets/awards/)
- [Bitcoin](/markets/bitcoin/)
- [Business](/markets/business/)
- [California Midterm](/markets/california-midterm/)
- [Climate and Weather](/markets/climate-and-weather/)
- [Commodities](/markets/commodities/)
- [Companies](/markets/companies/)
- [Crypto](/markets/crypto/)
- [Culture](/markets/culture/)
- [Davos](/markets/davos/)
- [Economics](/markets/economics/)
- [Economy](/markets/economy/)
- [Elections](/markets/elections/)
- [Entertainment](/markets/entertainment/)
- [Ethiopia](/markets/ethiopia/)
- [Fed](/markets/fed/)
- [Finance](/markets/finance/)
- [Financials](/markets/financials/)
- [Florida Midterm](/markets/florida-midterm/)
- [fomc](/markets/fomc/)
- [Formula 1](/markets/formula-1/)
- [French Election](/markets/french-election/)
- [Geopolitics](/markets/geopolitics/)
- [HFC](/markets/hfc/)
- [Iran](/markets/iran/)
- [Iran Regime](/markets/iran-regime/)
- [LA](/markets/la/)
- [Main Election](/markets/main-election/)
- [Mentions](/markets/mentions/)
- [Middle East](/markets/middle-east/)
- [Military Strikes](/markets/military-strikes/)
- [MLS](/markets/mls/)
- [NBA Finals](/markets/nba-finals/)
- [Pandemics](/markets/pandemics/)
- [Parent For Derivative](/markets/parent-for-derivative/)
- [Politics](/markets/politics/)
- [President](/markets/president/)
- [putin](/markets/putin/)
- [Rewards 20, 4.5, 50](/markets/rewards-20-4-5-50/)
- [Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec](/markets/rewards-200-4-5-50-deprec/)
- [Reza Pahlavi](/markets/reza-pahlavi/)
- [Science](/markets/science/)
- [Science and Technology](/markets/science-and-technology/)
- [shah](/markets/shah/)
- [Soccer](/markets/soccer/)
- [Social](/markets/social/)
- [Sports](/markets/sports/)
- [Tech](/markets/tech/)
- [Trump](/markets/trump/)
- [Trump-Machado](/markets/trump-machado/)
- [United States](/markets/united-states/)
- [US Election](/markets/us-election/)
- [Weather](/markets/weather/)
- [Others](/markets/others/)

## Reports

- [Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028](/markets/united-states/elections/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028.md) (0.3%) | Volume: $1,268,367,681: The DNC's 2028 primary calendar, scheduling South Carolina first on January 22, 2028, significantly reshapes candidate strategies.
  - Q1: How does the DNC's new 2028 early primary calendar, starting with South Carolina, affect the strategic calculus for a progressive candidate like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez versus a Southern governor like Andy Beshear?
  - Q2: What do post-midterm polls and initial 2027 fundraising reports indicate about Kamala Harris's standing as the presumed frontrunner for the 2028 nomination?
  - Q3: Contrasting political bases: How does Gavin Newsom's support among coastal Democrats compare with Gretchen Whitmer's appeal to Midwestern, union households in a potential 2028 primary?
  - Q4: What public polling data is available for hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary matchups in the new early states of South Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan?
  - Q5: How might the 2026 midterm election outcomes in states like California and Michigan influence the presidential ambitions of Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer?
- [Presidential Election Winner 2028](/markets/president/united-states/presidential-election-winner-2028.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $696,135,851: The 2026 midterms, widely seen as resetting the 2028 presidential field, are the main event driving market interest for this outcome.
  - Q1: What polling data and fundraising metrics from 2025-2026 underpin JD Vance's current status as the prediction market frontrunner?
  - Q2: How might the results of the 2026 midterm elections influence the primary strategies of potential candidates like Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio?
  - Q3: How do JD Vance and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez compare on key economic and foreign policy platforms ahead of the 2028 election cycle?
  - Q4: What is the expected timeline in 2027 for official campaign announcements and the first release of quarterly FEC fundraising data for declared 2028 candidates?
  - Q5: What do small-dollar fundraising trends and social media engagement metrics indicate about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's viability as a top-tier candidate?
- [Republican Presidential Nominee 2028](/markets/united-states/politics/republican-presidential-nominee-2028.md) (0.4%) | Volume: $693,297,468: J.D. Vance's consistent lead in early 2028 Republican primary polling and prediction markets positions him as the front-runner, with the market at 0.4%.
  - Q1: What early polling data and fundraising metrics support the market consensus that J.D. Vance is the front-runner for the 2028 nomination?
  - Q2: How do J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio compare on key policy areas like foreign affairs and economic strategy, and how does this appeal to different Republican voter blocs?
  - Q3: What is the potential impact of a Donald Trump endorsement on the 2028 primary race, particularly for the campaigns of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio?
  - Q4: What are the key dates and potential rule changes for the 2028 Republican primary calendar, and how might they affect early front-runners?
  - Q5: Beyond Vance and Rubio, which potential contenders like Ron DeSantis or Greg Abbott possess the fundraising infrastructure from prior campaigns to launch a credible 2028 run?
- [F1 Drivers' Champion](/markets/sports/formula-1/f1-drivers-champion.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $201,746,234: No specific evidence supports Max Verstappen as a 2026 F1 champion, reflected in a 0.1% model probability.
  - Q1: What technical data and performance metrics support the consensus that Kimi Antonelli and Mercedes will maintain their advantage for the 2026 F1 Championship?
  - Q2: How do Lando Norris's recent performances in Hungary and the Netherlands compare to Kimi Antonelli's on key metrics like race pace and tire management?
  - Q3: Beyond driver error, what potential reliability issues or strategic missteps for the Mercedes and McLaren teams pose the greatest risk to the 2026 championship outcome?
  - Q4: What historical precedents exist for a driver overcoming an 83-point deficit, and how do they apply to Lando Norris's current situation in the 2026 season?
  - Q5: How might Kimi Antonelli's confirmed grid penalty at the 2026 Italian Grand Prix realistically impact his championship lead over Lando Norris?
- [2028 Democratic presidential nominee](/markets/elections/2028/2028-democratic-presidential-nominee.md) (0.6%) | Volume: 176,244,230 contracts: Model and market probabilities align at 0.6%, reflecting consensus on a highly improbable nominee.
  - Q1: How will the 2026 midterm election outcomes shape the early campaign strategies for potential frontrunners like Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer?
  - Q2: What factors explain the discrepancy between Kamala Harris's high name recognition and her currently lower odds in 2028 prediction markets?
  - Q3: How does Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's progressive platform compare to Josh Shapiro's moderate record in terms of potential appeal in the first six DNC-approved primary states?
  - Q4: Which major policy debates are likely to emerge before 2028 that could create distinct lanes for progressive candidates like Ro Khanna versus centrists like Chris Murphy?
  - Q5: What polling data and fundraising metrics underpin Gavin Newsom's current frontrunner status in 2028 prediction markets?
- [Netanyahu out by...?](/markets/geopolitics/world/netanyahu-out-by.md) (48.0%) | Volume: $124,097,646: Netanyahu's challenging re-election path and coalition instability, exacerbated by Ofer Winter's new party, drive the market at 48c.
  - Q1: How is Ofer Winter's 'People of Israel' party projected to affect the right-wing vote share and Netanyahu's ability to form a majority in the October 2026 election?
  - Q2: What polling trends and coalition formation scenarios support the market consensus that Gadi Eisenkot is the frontrunner to succeed Netanyahu after the 2026 election?
  - Q3: How do Benjamin Netanyahu's and Gadi Eisenkot's platforms on national security and economic policy compare ahead of the 2026 election?
  - Q4: Which major Israeli polling firms have the strongest track records for accuracy in past Knesset elections, and what are their current projections for Likud and Yashar?
  - Q5: What is Benjamin Netanyahu's path to victory in the 2026 election despite current unfavorable polling against Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party?
- [Next French Presidential Election](/markets/french-election/main-election/next-french-presidential-election.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $123,852,610: A lack of specific polling or research data on Jordan Bardella underpins the market's 0.1% price.
  - Q1: Which potential outcomes of the ongoing left-wing primary process would most significantly impact the first-round viability of centrist candidates like Édouard Philippe?
  - Q2: What do head-to-head polls from late 2026 indicate about Marine Le Pen's second-round electability against her top challengers, Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal?
  - Q3: How do the proposed economic platforms of Marine Le Pen and Édouard Philippe compare on key issues like inflation, public debt, and EU policy?
  - Q4: What is the timeline for Marine Le Pen's legal appeal, and how would a final ruling before 2027 impact the National Rally's candidate strategy?
  - Q5: What evidence from polling and party endorsements supports Édouard Philippe's position as the leading centrist challenger to Marine Le Pen?
- [Venezuela leader end of 2026?](/markets/trump-machado/rewards-20-4-5-50/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $95,882,980: Delcy Rodríguez assumed Venezuela's acting presidency following Nicolás Maduro's U.S. arrest and explicit U.S. backing.
  - Q1: What political milestones are required for the Trump administration to formally recognize a permanent Venezuelan leader by the end of 2026?
  - Q2: What evidence from U.S. diplomatic statements and Venezuelan state media confirms Delcy Rodríguez's grip on power will remain stable through the end of 2026?
  - Q3: How do Delcy Rodríguez and opposition leader María Corina Machado compare in terms of U.S. support and domestic political influence following Maduro's removal?
  - Q4: What is the current stance of Venezuela's military leadership, particularly Vladimir Padrino López, regarding Delcy Rodríguez's acting presidency?
  - Q5: How might the execution of the August 2026 U.S.-Venezuela oil deal impact the stability of Delcy Rodríguez's interim government?
- [Los Angeles Mayor winner?](/markets/elections/us-elections/los-angeles-mayor-winner.md) (62.0%) | Volume: 91,167,784 contracts: Model's 65.9% probability for Bass (KXMAYORLA-26-KBAS) implies 1.6x payout versus 62c market price.
  - Q1: What do the latest campaign finance disclosures reveal about the fundraising strengths and spending priorities of Karen Bass versus Nithya Raman ahead of the runoff?
  - Q2: What potential campaign events or external factors between now and November 3, 2026, could act as significant catalysts to shift momentum in the Bass-Raman runoff?
  - Q3: What precedent does the 2005 Los Angeles mayoral runoff—the last time an incumbent faced a runoff—set for Karen Bass's reelection campaign?
  - Q4: Which public polling firms have the most accurate track records in recent Los Angeles municipal elections, and what is their release schedule for the Bass-Raman runoff?
  - Q5: How do Karen Bass's and Nithya Raman's proposed policies on homelessness and public safety compare, and which candidate's platform is resonating more with key voter blocs?
- [Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?](/markets/iran-regime/iran/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by.md) (0.1%) | Volume: $72,451,457: Iran's decisive, fortified control over Kharg Island solidifies the 0.1% probability of a change in sovereignty.
  - Q1: What specific Iranian military actions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a direct U.S. intervention aimed at seizing Kharg Island?
  - Q2: How critical is Kharg Island to Iran's economy versus its other oil export terminals like those at Sirri or Lavan islands?
  - Q3: How do the U.S. Fifth Fleet's amphibious assault capabilities compare to Iran's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy for defending Kharg Island?
  - Q4: Which publicly available datasets can be used to monitor the operational status of the Kharg Island oil terminal in near real-time?
  - Q5: What does recent open-source intelligence reveal about Iran's defensive fortifications and military readiness on Kharg Island?
- [What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?](/markets/bitcoin/yearly/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026.md) (1.3%) | Volume: $69,767,020: The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act and other U.S. regulatory actions drive 2026 Bitcoin price expectations, with the market at 1.3%.
  - Q1: Which potential U.S. regulatory or legislative milestones in 2026 are most likely to act as major catalysts for Bitcoin's price?
  - Q2: What core assumptions underpin the most bullish 2026 Bitcoin price targets, such as those from Amberdata and FXEmpire?
  - Q3: How do the 2026 Bitcoin forecasting models from Amberdata and MediaCrypto differ in their base-case, bull-case, and bear-case scenarios?
  - Q4: What do the latest derivatives market data from exchanges like Coinbase and CME suggest about institutional price expectations for year-end 2026?
  - Q5: What is the projected impact of Federal Reserve monetary policy changes on institutional Bitcoin ETF flows throughout 2026?
- [Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?](/markets/aliens/politics/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-by.md) (3.7%) | Volume: $66,135,669: The absence of public reports from the NDA-waiver directive drives the low market probability of 3.7%.
  - Q1: What type of verifiable event, outside of scheduled reports, could force an unscheduled confirmation from the U.S. government?
  - Q2: What is the official consensus on Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena from the Pentagon's AARO and NASA as of their latest 2026 reports?
  - Q3: How does the U.S. Congress's approach to UAP transparency differ from the Pentagon's disclosure process?
  - Q4: What do recent polling trends from Gallup and Pew Research indicate about the American public's belief in alien visitation?
  - Q5: What key legislative or executive actions related to UAP disclosure are anticipated before the end of 2026?
- [Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?](/markets/military-strikes/politics/will-the-u-s-invade-iran-before-2027.md) (15.0%) | Volume: $65,564,832: Iranian escalations in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger U.S. ground operations, with the market pricing a 15% probability.
  - Q1: What specific escalations by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a U.S. ground invasion before the end of 2026?
  - Q2: What is the official stated policy of key U.S. allies, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia, regarding a potential ground invasion of Iran in late 2026?
  - Q3: How do the United States' and Iran's ground forces, air support capabilities, and missile defense systems compare in a potential late-2026 invasion scenario?
  - Q4: How might the outcome of the November 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections influence the Trump administration's strategic calculus regarding an invasion of Iran?
  - Q5: What developments in Iran's nuclear program between September 2026 and year-end would most likely invalidate the current U.S. strategy and force a reconsideration of a ground invasion?
- [Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?](/markets/parent-for-derivative/culture/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027.md) (1.9%) | Volume: $64,935,158: At 2c (1.9% probability), market and model align, reflecting rejections of specific return dates.
  - Q1: What is the official doctrinal stance of major global Christian bodies, like the Catholic Church and the World Council of Churches, on setting specific dates for Christ's return?
  - Q2: What specific geopolitical events or technological advancements before 2027 are cited by prominent eschatological commentators as potential 'signs of the times'?
  - Q3: How do scriptural interpretations of Matthew 24 differ between mainstream academic institutions, such as Dallas Theological Seminary, and popular prophecy-focused ministries?
  - Q4: What were the societal and media impacts of major failed apocalyptic predictions of the 21st century, such as Harold Camping's 2011 prophecy?
  - Q5: How have the market odds behaved in other low-probability, high-impact 'fringe' contracts on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as their resolution dates approached?
- [2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?](/markets/elections/2028/2028-u-s-presidential-election-winner.md) (11.0%) | Volume: 58,306,769 contracts: Model estimates 15.6% probability versus an 11c market price, suggesting a 9.1x payout multiple.
  - Q1: How will the 2026 midterm election results reshape the field of likely 2028 presidential candidates?
  - Q2: What is the strategic rationale for a potential Gretchen Whitmer candidacy, based on her electoral performance in Michigan and positioning within the Democratic party?
  - Q3: How do potential Democratic frontrunners Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris compare in their appeal to key primary voting blocs?
  - Q4: Which state-level results from the 2026 midterm elections will provide the most predictive data for modeling the 2028 Electoral College map?
  - Q5: What early polling and fundraising metrics support the market's pricing of J.D. Vance as a frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination?
- [2027 Pro Football Champion](/markets/sports/football/2027-pro-football-champion.md) (1.0%) | Volume: 57,738,529 contracts: Market prices 1c (1.0%) for this outcome, slightly above the 0.9% model, implying a 100x payout.
  - Q1: Does the Dallas Cowboys' current Super Bowl LXI betting market valuation align with their roster analytics and projected strength of schedule for the 2026 season?
  - Q2: How might a season-ending injury to a starting quarterback on a top-5 contending team, like the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills, impact the Super Bowl LXI futures market?
  - Q3: How do the defensive units of the defending champion Seattle Seahawks and the favorite Los Angeles Rams compare in pass rush efficiency and secondary depth for the 2026 season?
  - Q4: What key performance indicators and roster strengths do analytical models like ESPN's FPI cite for the Los Angeles Rams' high probability of winning Super Bowl LXI?
  - Q5: Which high-contention teams, such as the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions, possess the draft capital and salary cap space to make a significant roster upgrade before the 2026 NFL trade deadline?
- [2028 Republican presidential nominee](/markets/elections/2028/2028-republican-presidential-nominee.md) (1.4%) | Volume: 55,836,056 contracts: Model's 1.6% probability exceeds 1c market price (1.4%), suggesting undervaluation; Trump's enduring influence is key.
  - Q1: How do the gubernatorial records and national fundraising networks of Greg Abbott and Glenn Youngkin position them for a potential 2028 run?
  - Q2: What polling data and early fundraising metrics from 2025-2026 support J.D. Vance's current frontrunner status for the 2028 nomination?
  - Q3: What outcomes in the 2026 midterm elections could significantly boost or damage the presidential prospects of governors like Ron DeSantis and Sarah Huckabee Sanders?
  - Q4: How do J.D. Vance's and Marco Rubio's policy platforms and appeal to different Republican factions compare ahead of the 2028 primary?
  - Q5: How might Donald J. Trump's endorsement (or lack thereof) before the 2028 primaries act as a key catalyst for candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy or Donald Trump Jr.?
- [How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?](/markets/rewards-200-4-5-50-deprec/fed-rates/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026.md) (89.0%) | Volume: $50,421,379: The June 2026 SEP and Chair Warsh's hawkish remarks reinforce expectations for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026, with the market pricing 89c.
  - Q1: What specific inflation and unemployment data points in the second half of 2026 would be required to shift the FOMC's consensus from hawkish to considering a rate cut?
  - Q2: What public statements from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other voting FOMC members in 2026 support the market's strong consensus for zero rate cuts?
  - Q3: How do the 2026 rate path forecasts from Barclays and J.P. Morgan compare to the Federal Reserve's own Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) dot plot?
  - Q4: Where can traders find the historical and most recent releases of the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and 'dot plots' for 2026?
  - Q5: What probability for 2026 rate cuts is implied by financial instruments like the CME FedWatch Tool and the Treasury yield curve?
- [Pro Football: 2027 Champion](/markets/sports/nfl/pro-football-2027-champion.md) (4.4%) | Volume: $48,535,015: Opta's model and major sportsbooks favoring the Los Angeles Rams as 2027 champions are driving the overall market.
  - Q1: Beyond betting markets, what do quantitative models like Opta's supercomputer project for the 2027 Super Bowl, and where do they diverge from consensus odds?
  - Q2: Which key dates on the 2026-2027 NFL calendar, like the November 10 trade deadline or start of the January playoffs, represent the most significant potential catalysts for Super Bowl odds?
  - Q3: How do the top AFC contenders, the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens, compare in terms of offensive firepower and defensive unit strength heading into the 2026 season?
  - Q4: Which potential 'dark horse' teams, like the Houston Texans or Cleveland Browns, possess the specific unit strengths (e.g., pass rush, offensive line) to outperform expectations in the 2026-2027 season?
  - Q5: What evidence from roster strength, coaching, and advanced metrics supports the Los Angeles Rams' position as the betting favorite for the 2027 Super Bowl?
- [Bitcoin price at the end of 2026](/markets/crypto/btc/bitcoin-price-at-the-end-of-2026.md) (14.1%) | Volume: 41,773,486 contracts: Investment firm price targets and sustained ETF inflows are driving market expectations for Bitcoin's 2026 close, closely tracking model probability.
  - Q1: How do the 2026 year-end Bitcoin price targets from investment firms like Bernstein and 21Shares compare to the probabilities implied by prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket?
  - Q2: What do the net flow trends for major U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as those from Grayscale and Fidelity, indicate about institutional sentiment leading into year-end 2026?
  - Q3: What potential impact could the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and changes in global M2 supply in H2 2026 have on institutional capital flows into Bitcoin?
  - Q4: What is the historical tracking error and volatility profile of the CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index relative to major spot exchanges like Coinbase and Binance?
  - Q5: What do key on-chain metrics from providers like Glassnode and CryptoQuant suggest about accumulation versus distribution trends among long-term Bitcoin holders in H2 2026?
- [All Reports](https://www.octagonai.co/markets.md)

## Answers

- [Are prediction markets accurate compared to polls or expert forecasts?](/answers/are-prediction-markets-accurate-compared-to-polls-or-expert-forecasts.md): Prediction markets are often as accurate as polls and expert forecasts, especially close to resolution. Their strength comes from incentives, real-time updates, and the ability to aggregate diverse information into a single probability.
- [Best Fintool Alternatives in 2026](/answers/best-fintool-alternatives-in-2026.md): The best Fintool alternative depends on which parts of Fintool you actually used, especially filings research, transcript analysis, metric extraction, and finance-oriented AI workflows.
- [Best Kalshi alternatives in 2026](/answers/best-kalshi-alternatives-in-2026.md): The best Kalshi alternatives in 2026 include Polymarket, Robinhood event contracts, PredictIt, and sports-focused apps for trading, plus research layers like Octagon that work across every venue.
- [Best prediction market platforms for investors in 2026](/answers/best-prediction-market-platforms-for-investors.md): The best prediction market platforms for investors in 2026 — Kalshi, Polymarket, Metaculus, and Octagon — compared by use case: regulated trading, active event markets, forecasting consensus, and investor research.
- [Best prediction market tools in 2026](/answers/best-prediction-market-tools-in-2026.md): The best prediction market tools in 2026 fall into three layers: trading venues, data and intelligence platforms, and monitoring or alerting tools. The right pick depends on whether you want to trade, research, or automate.
- [Can I hedge real-world risk using prediction markets?](/answers/can-i-hedge-real-world-risk-using-prediction-markets.md): Yes—prediction markets can hedge exposure to discrete outcomes (policy changes, rate decisions, approvals, disruptions). The hedge works best when the contract outcome closely matches your real-world exposure and timing.
- [Can prediction markets be used to forecast geopolitical events?](/answers/can-prediction-markets-be-used-to-forecast-geopolitical-events.md): Yes—prediction markets are especially useful for geopolitical forecasting because they aggregate fragmented, asymmetric information that is difficult to model formally.
- [Can prediction markets help forecast IPO timing?](/answers/can-prediction-markets-help-forecast-ipo-timing.md): Prediction markets can sharpen IPO-timing forecasts by attaching live probabilities to "files by," "prices by," or "debuts before" questions, best used alongside an IPO tracker and filing flow.
- [Fintool vs Octagon: Which research workflow fits better?](/answers/fintool-vs-octagon-ai-which-research-workflow-fits-better.md): Fintool was built around filings, transcripts, and finance-focused AI research. This comparison shows how Octagon serves teams doing the same kind of public-company research.
- [How are contracts settled on Polymarket compared to Kalshi?](/answers/how-are-contracts-settled-on-polymarket-compared-to-kalshi.md): Kalshi contracts settle based on predefined, regulator-approved data sources, while Polymarket contracts rely on oracle mechanisms and platform-defined resolution processes.
- [How do analysts use prediction markets in company or sector research?](/answers/how-do-analysts-use-prediction-markets-in-company-or-sector-research.md): Analysts use prediction markets as a probability layer over fundamental research, weighting scenarios, timing catalysts, stress-testing theses, and surfacing sector read-throughs from a single event.
- [How do fees and platform rules affect prediction market prices?](/answers/how-do-fees-and-platform-rules-affect-prediction-market-prices.md): Fees and platform rules directly affect pricing by widening spreads, discouraging arbitrage, and biasing prices away from theoretical probabilities.
- [How do I calculate expected value (EV) for a trade in a prediction market?](/answers/how-do-i-calculate-expected-value-for-a-trade-in-a-prediction-market.md): EV compares what you expect to win on average vs what you pay. For a $1 "Yes" contract: EV = (your probability × $1) − price − fees.
- [How do I handle correlated markets and avoid double-counting the same thesis?](/answers/how-do-i-handle-correlated-markets-and-avoid-double-counting-the-same-thesis.md): Correlated markets move together because they share drivers (e.g., economic data affecting both rates and elections). If you hold multiple correlated positions, you may be taking much more risk than you realize.
- [How do I read a prediction market price as a probability?](/answers/how-do-i-read-a-prediction-market-price-as-a-probability.md): For a standard binary contract, the price roughly equals the implied probability.
- [How do investors use prediction markets for event-driven investing?](/answers/how-do-investors-use-prediction-markets-for-event-driven-investing.md): Event-driven investors use prediction markets to put live probabilities on catalysts like approvals, deals, and data releases, to time entries and exits, and to hedge discrete outcomes.
- [How do Kalshi fees work?](/answers/kalshi-fees-explained.md): What Kalshi actually costs: per-contract trading fees that peak near 50-cent prices, zero fees at settlement, and the spread — usually the bigger cost. Worked examples and how fees change expected value.
- [How do Kalshi trading bots work?](/answers/kalshi-trading-bot.md): How Kalshi trading bots work in 2026: the research-edge-execution loop, why naive bots lose to fees and spreads, risk controls that matter, and Octagon's open-source AI trading CLI as a reference stack.
- [How do Polymarket and Kalshi differ in regulation and legal structure?](/answers/how-do-polymarket-and-kalshi-differ-in-regulation-and-legal-structure.md): Polymarket and Kalshi operate under fundamentally different legal structures. Polymarket is a crypto-based platform operating outside U.S. financial regulation, while Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated exchange overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
- [How do prediction markets differ from options markets?](/answers/how-do-prediction-markets-differ-from-options-markets.md): Prediction markets pay a fixed amount on a discrete yes or no outcome, while options derive value from an underlying asset's price and pay along a continuous range. The payoff shape is the core difference.
- [How do prediction markets react to Fed decisions, CPI, and jobs reports?](/answers/how-do-prediction-markets-react-to-fed-decisions-cpi-and-jobs-reports.md): Prediction markets reprice scheduled macro releases like FOMC decisions, CPI, and jobs reports in seconds, often before the cash and rates markets fully digest the print.
- [How do taxes work on Kalshi?](/answers/kalshi-taxes.md): How Kalshi taxes work in 2026: what tax forms Kalshi issues, why event-contract treatment is genuinely unsettled (ordinary income vs Section 1256), and what records to keep. Not tax advice.
- [How do you build alerts for major probability changes?](/answers/how-do-you-build-alerts-for-major-probability-changes.md): Build probability alerts by defining a baseline, a trigger threshold, and a delivery channel, then filtering for liquidity and a catalyst so you are notified on real moves, not noise.
- [How do you monitor prediction market moves automatically?](/answers/how-do-you-monitor-prediction-market-moves-automatically.md): You monitor prediction markets automatically by pulling live probabilities through an API or MCP server, defining the contracts and thresholds you care about, and routing changes into a feed, dashboard, or agent.
- [How does Kalshi work?](/answers/how-does-kalshi-work.md): How Kalshi works end to end: yes/no contracts priced $0.01–$0.99, a central order book, published settlement sources, and $1/$0 payouts. Walkthrough of placing, pricing, and exiting a trade.
- [How does Polymarket work?](/answers/how-does-polymarket-work.md): How Polymarket works: crypto-wallet accounts, USDC-settled yes/no shares on Polygon, hybrid AMM/order-book pricing, and UMA oracle resolution — plus US access restrictions and how its odds compare to Kalshi's.
- [How does settlement and resolution work, and why do rules matter more than headlines?](/answers/how-does-settlement-and-resolution-work-and-why-do-rules-matter-more-than-headlines.md): Prediction markets settle based on the contract's written resolution criteria, not what people "meant" or what headlines imply. A market can resolve against popular intuition if the rules are strict or the outcome is defined narrowly.
- [How does the Kalshi API work?](/answers/kalshi-api-guide.md): Developer guide to the Kalshi API: REST endpoints for markets and orders, API-key + RSA request signing, demo environment, rate-limit tiers — and where Octagon's research API adds search, clusters, and model-vs-market edge on top.
- [How does the Polymarket API work?](/answers/polymarket-api-guide.md): Developer guide to the Polymarket APIs: Gamma for events and markets, CLOB for order books and price history, and the Data API for positions, trades and holders — with token-ID resolution and no-KYC read access.
- [How should investors use prediction markets alongside traditional research?](/answers/how-should-investors-use-prediction-markets-alongside-traditional-research.md): Prediction markets work best as a complement to traditional research—providing probabilistic context, timing signals, and consensus checks rather than standalone answers.
- [How to Migrate from Fintool to Octagon](/answers/how-to-migrate-from-fintool-to-octagon-ai.md): A practical migration guide for former Fintool users who want to rebuild their finance and research workflow inside Octagon with minimal friction.
- [How to use prediction markets for earnings season research](/answers/how-to-use-prediction-markets-for-earnings-season-research.md): Prediction markets give earnings-season researchers a live, probability-weighted read on outcomes like beats, guidance cuts, and price reactions, complementing estimates and call transcripts.
- [Is Kalshi legit and safe to use?](/answers/is-kalshi-legit.md): Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, not an offshore book: KYC'd accounts, member funds held segregated, and federally supervised markets. What's protected, what isn't, and where the real risks sit in 2026.
- [Is Polymarket legal in the US?](/answers/is-polymarket-legal-in-the-us.md): Polymarket geo-blocks US trading after its 2022 CFTC settlement — but bought a CFTC-licensed exchange in 2025 and won regulatory relief for a US return. What's legal for US users in 2026, and the regulated alternative.
- [Kalshi vs Octagon: prediction market exchange vs investor research](/answers/octagon-vs-kalshi.md): Kalshi is a regulated US prediction market exchange for trading event contracts. Octagon is a prediction market research platform that helps investors interpret market prices and turn them into actionable research.
- [Metaculus vs Octagon: forecasting platform vs prediction market research](/answers/octagon-vs-metaculus.md): Metaculus is a forecasting platform focused on consensus probabilities. Octagon is a prediction market research platform for investors who want to interpret forecasts and event signals in a market intelligence workflow.
- [Polymarket vs Kalshi: Differences, Regulation, Liquidity & Use Cases](/answers/polymarket-vs-kalshi.md): Polymarket vs Kalshi: side-by-side comparison of regulation, contracts, US access, fees, liquidity, and resolution rules. Updated for 2026.
- [Polymarket vs Octagon: prediction market platform vs investor research](/answers/octagon-vs-polymarket.md): Polymarket is a prediction market platform for trading and following event markets. Octagon is a prediction market research platform that helps investors interpret those signals and turn them into market intelligence.
- [What are the best MCP servers for financial data?](/answers/best-mcp-servers-for-financial-data.md): The MCP servers worth connecting for finance in 2026: Octagon for research and prediction markets, exchange-data servers for quotes, and how to evaluate any listing. Honest comparison — including where each falls short.
- [What are the most common mistakes people make when using prediction markets?](/answers/what-are-the-most-common-mistakes-people-make-when-using-prediction-markets.md): The most common mistakes are overtrusting prices, ignoring liquidity and rules, and confusing probability with certainty.
- [What does a prediction market actually measure: belief, probability, or truth?](/answers/what-does-a-prediction-market-actually-measure-belief-probability-or-truth.md): Prediction markets measure tradeable belief, not objective truth. Prices reflect what participants are willing to risk capital on under current information and constraints.
- [What does market manipulation look like in prediction markets, and how can I spot it?](/answers/what-does-market-manipulation-look-like-in-prediction-markets-and-how-can-i-spot-it.md): Manipulation typically looks like pushing the price with aggressive trades to shape perception, then reversing later. You can often spot it through sudden price jumps without new info, thin order books, and quick mean reversion.
- [What happened to Fintool? Options for former users](/answers/what-happened-to-fintool-options-for-former-users.md): Fintool's homepage now states that Microsoft has acquired Fintool, which changes the product story from independent startup to acquisition and transition.
- [What is a prediction market, and how is it different from betting?](/answers/what-is-a-prediction-market.md): A prediction market is a marketplace where prices represent the crowd's implied probability of a future event.
- [What is an MCP server?](/answers/what-is-an-mcp-server.md): An MCP server gives AI assistants like Claude, Cursor, and ChatGPT structured access to tools and data through the Model Context Protocol. How MCP works, local vs remote servers, OAuth, and a finance example.
- [What is arbitrage in prediction markets, and when is it actually possible?](/answers/what-is-arbitrage-in-prediction-markets-and-when-is-it-actually-possible.md): Arbitrage is a low-risk profit from inconsistent prices (e.g., "Yes" + "No" priced below $1 combined). In practice, true arbitrage is rare because fees, slippage, limits, and timing risk often eliminate it.
- [What is Kalshi?](/answers/what-is-kalshi.md): Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange where you trade yes/no contracts on real-world events — elections, Fed decisions, sports, weather. How it works, who can use it, and how prices become probabilities.
- [What is liquidity, and why does it matter so much in prediction markets?](/answers/what-is-liquidity-and-why-does-it-matter-so-much-in-prediction-markets.md): Liquidity determines how easily you can trade without moving the price. Low liquidity increases spreads, slippage, and exit risk.
- [What is the difference between prediction markets and futures markets?](/answers/what-is-the-difference-between-prediction-markets-and-futures-markets.md): Prediction markets settle on whether a discrete event happens, while futures settle on the future price or level of an asset or index. One prices an outcome, the other prices a value.
- [What makes a prediction market signal trustworthy versus noisy?](/answers/what-makes-a-prediction-market-signal-trustworthy-versus-noisy.md): A trustworthy prediction market signal usually has deep liquidity, clear resolution rules, and a move backed by real information. Noise comes from thin books, vague rules, and unexplained spikes.
- [What types of markets are listed on Polymarket versus Kalshi?](/answers/what-types-of-markets-are-listed-on-polymarket-versus-kalshi.md): Polymarket lists a wide range of global markets, including politics, geopolitics, and cultural events, while Kalshi focuses on regulated, event-based markets such as U.S. economic data, policy decisions, and legally permissible political outcomes.
- [What's the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi?](/answers/whats-the-difference-between-polymarket-and-kalshi.md): Polymarket and Kalshi are both prediction market platforms, but they differ fundamentally in regulation, user access, and market structure. Polymarket operates globally using crypto infrastructure, while Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated exchange designed to operate within traditional regulatory frameworks.
- [Who can legally use Polymarket and Kalshi by geography?](/answers/who-can-legally-use-polymarket-and-kalshi-by-geography.md): Kalshi is legally accessible to eligible users within the United States, while Polymarket primarily serves non-U.S. users due to regulatory restrictions affecting U.S. participation.
- [Why do prediction market probabilities change so quickly after news events?](/answers/why-do-prediction-market-probabilities-change-so-quickly-after-news-events.md): Prediction markets react quickly because they reprice probabilities, not narratives. A single credible data point can materially shift expected outcomes, causing sharp price moves even when headlines seem incremental.
- [Why do prediction markets sometimes disagree with financial markets?](/answers/why-do-prediction-markets-sometimes-disagree-with-financial-markets.md): Prediction markets and financial markets price different things: discrete outcomes versus continuous economic impact. Disagreement often reflects different assumptions, time horizons, or risk premia.
- [Why do prediction markets sometimes look wrong, even when they're popular?](/answers/why-do-prediction-markets-sometimes-look-wrong-even-when-theyre-popular.md): Markets can be "wrong" due to new information not yet absorbed, biased participation, or structural frictions like low liquidity and fees. The displayed price is a tradeable consensus—not a guarantee of accuracy.
- [Why do some prediction markets stay mispriced for long periods?](/answers/why-do-some-prediction-markets-stay-mispriced-for-long-periods.md): Mispricings persist due to low liquidity, unclear resolution rules, capital constraints, and lack of arbitrage incentives—especially in niche or long-dated markets.

## Optional

- [Octagon](https://www.octagonai.co/): Parent company providing market intelligence
- [Public Markets](https://www.octagonai.co/public-markets/): 8,000+ public equities coverage
- [LLMs Full Instructions](https://www.octagonai.co/llms-full.txt): Attribution and usage guidance for AI systems