# DataTrek Research

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Wall Street’s Go-To Commentary for Differentiated and Actionable Investment Ideas

## Sitemaps

- [XML Sitemap](https://datatrekresearch.com/sitemap.xml): Contains all public & indexable URLs for this website.

## Posts

- [Blog](https://datatrekresearch.com/blog/)
- [MarketWatch: "AI is a Pandora’s box that some CEOs seem wary of opening — at least with investors"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-ai-is-a-pandoras-box-that-some-ceos-seem-wary-of-opening-at-least-with-investors/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Artificial intelligence is making its way through corporate America, but not all executives want to talk about it. DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas took a look at FactSet’s recent analysis of mentions of AI during corporate earnings calls. The data provider found that executives at about two-thirds of
- [Barron's: "Why 5% Bond Yields Won’t Sink the Stock Market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-why-5-bond-yields-wont-sink-the-stock-market/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "Nicholas Colas doesn’t see 5% Treasury yields as a stock market spoiler. Instead, the co-founder of DataTrek Research sees them as a healthy reset of interest rates that could pave the way for more sustainable growth. Barron’s spoke with the Wall Street veteran about yields on the 10-year Treasury
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc-4/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was interviewed on CNBC about potential Fed rate hikes and the US labor market. Watch it here on CNBC!
- [WDWL w/ Josh Brown: "Why Every Trader on Earth is Watching the 10-Year Treasury Now"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-w-josh-brown-why-every-trader-on-earth-is-watching-the-10-year-treasury-now/): On the latest episode of "What Did We Learn" with Josh Brown, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas explained why rising real yields (not inflation) are pushing long-term Treasury rates higher and what that means for stocks. Josh and Nick also unpacked S&P 500 valuations, the earnings revisions fueling this year's gains, and three possible paths to new highs.
- [IBD: "Dividend Tourists Find Way To Triple S&P 500's Puny Yield"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-dividend-tourists-find-way-to-triple-sp-500s-puny-yield/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ..."Dividend yields provide a partial offset to the risk of owning geographies and sectors with less exposure to technological innovation," said Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research".... Full article here on Investor's Business Daily.
- [Inc Mag: "Technology Is No Longer the Market’s Priciest Sector. The New Leader Is an Old-Economy Group"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-technology-is-no-longer-the-markets-priciest-sector-the-new-leader-is-an-old-economy-group/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek: ..."Through the first half of the year, industrials outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 10 points. But DataTrek’s measure of trailing 100-day returns now show the sector lagging the index, which could imply a catch-up trade opportunity"... Full article here on Inc Magazine.
- [WSJ: "A Sign ‘Quality’ Investing Is Due for a Comeback"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-a-sign-quality-investing-is-due-for-a-comeback/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."It certainly did in the short term. The two styles’ performance reversed immediately. A popular quality ETF is beating the S&P 500 Momentum Index by 6 percentage points this month. Wall Street veteran Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote this week that momentum
- [WDWL w/ Josh Brown: We Answer the Number One Question Facing Investors Right Now](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-w-josh-brown-we-answer-the-number-one-question-facing-investors-right-now/): DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe joined Josh Brown for another episode of "What Did We Learn" on The Compound. They started by digging into why the US economy has become unusually recession-resistant over the past 15 years, and explained what that means for monetary policy. From there they gave their 2H 2026 Tech
- [DataTrek 2H 2026 Investor Sentiment Survey Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatrek-2h-2026-investor-sentiment-survey-results-2/): In today's video we share the results of our DataTrek Mid-Year 2026 Investor Sentiment Survey. Our readers weighed in on their macro outlook (bullish), which asset class they like most for the back half (US stocks, by a wide margin), and their favorite Big Tech stock (it’s not Nvidia). On the biggest question of the
- [DataTrek 2H 2026 Investor Sentiment Survey Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatrek-2h-2026-investor-sentiment-survey-results/): In today's video we share the results of our DataTrek Mid-Year 2026 Investor Sentiment Survey. Our readers weighed in on their macro outlook (bullish), which asset class they like most for the back half (US stocks, by a wide margin), and their favorite Big Tech stock (it’s not Nvidia). On the biggest question of the
- [Tech’s Most Extreme Signal Since the Dot Com Bubble](https://datatrekresearch.com/techs-most-extreme-signal-since-the-dot-com-bubble-2/): Tech's 100-day outperformance vs the S&P 500 recently hit its most extreme level since January 2000, two months before the Dot Com Bubble burst. But that’s not a “sell everything call”. We break down three things: (1) why Tech's relative return to the S&P likely cools through Q3, (2) what history says about Year 4
- [Tech's Most Extreme Signal Since the Dot Com Bubble](https://datatrekresearch.com/techs-most-extreme-signal-since-the-dot-com-bubble/): Tech's 100-day outperformance vs the S&P 500 recently hit its most extreme level since January 2000, two months before the Dot Com Bubble burst. But that’s not a “sell everything call”. We break down three things: (1) why Tech's relative return to the S&P likely cools through Q3, (2) what history says about Year 4
- [Inc Mag: "The S&P 500 Just Packed a Year of Returns Into 6 Months—and 1 Surprising AI Stock Is Up 700 Percent"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-the-sp-500-just-packed-a-year-of-returns-into-6-months-and-1-surprising-ai-stock-is-up-700-percent/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek Research: ...."Asset prices have wasted no opportunity to prove their resilience, and that speaks to markets’ ability to withstand and ignore geopolitical and economic surprises. “We’d hazard a guess that no one had +$110/barrel oil and a +300 pct rally in Micron on their 2026 predictions list, but the fact
- [Axios: "Strong earnings, easing oil prices drive Q2 stock rally"](https://datatrekresearch.com/axios-strong-earnings-easing-oil-prices-drive-q2-stock-rally/): Excerpt from Axios quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "What we're watching: Concerns about an AI bubble continue to shadow tech stocks' momentum. Big Tech companies have issued $150 billion in new debt so far this year, according to DataTrek Research. The Nasdaq Composite slumped about 2.8% in June amid growing concerns about costs. What they're saying: "We believe incrementally
- [What Polymarket Says About Oil, SpaceX/Tesla, and the AI IPO Race](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-polymarket-says-about-oil-spacex-tesla-and-the-ai-ipo-race-2/): Prediction markets give traders a real-time edge on moves in oil, tech stocks, and AI – and most investors aren't paying attention yet. In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe walks through current Polymarket odds on Strait of Hormuz/oil price risk, the hidden merger premium in Tesla's stock, and what the Anthropic vs OpenAI
- [What Polymarket Says About Oil, SpaceX/Tesla, and the AI IPO Race](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-polymarket-says-about-oil-spacex-tesla-and-the-ai-ipo-race/): Prediction markets give traders a real-time edge on moves in oil, tech stocks, and AI – and most investors aren't paying attention yet. In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe walks through current Polymarket odds on Strait of Hormuz/oil price risk, the hidden merger premium in Tesla's stock, and what the Anthropic vs OpenAI
- [IBD: "AI Stocks In A Bubble? Comparisons To 1999 Appear. What Strategists Say."](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-ai-stocks-in-a-bubble-comparisons-to-1999-appear-what-strategists-say/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ..."DataTrek Research, for its part, also doesn't see an AI bubble that's about to pop, despite some troubling comparisons. In the 100 trading days through June 3, the tech sector outperformed the S&P 500 by 26.7 percentage points. That's extremely rare, occurring less than 1%
- [WDWL w/ Josh Brown: A 6 Standard Deviation Tech Event Just Happened. Now What?](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-w-josh-brown-a-6-standard-deviation-tech-event-just-happened-now-what/): DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe joined Josh Brown for another episode of "What Did We Learn". They discussed the most extreme stretch of Tech outperformance in recent market history, dug into the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO, and shared how to spot when Tech has run too far like in 1999/2000. Watch it here!
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Bloomberg TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-bloomberg-tv/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Bloomberg TV discussing SpaceX's IPO. Watch it here!
- [MarketWatch: "As SpaceX IPO anticipation heats up, what 2026’s biggest IPOs say about investor demand"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-as-spacex-ipo-anticipation-heats-up-what-2026s-biggest-ipos-say-about-investor-demand/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."The IPO calendar is heating up with blockbuster deals as the bull market for U.S. stocks has run more than three years. DataTrek Research dug into how this year’s 15 largest U.S. IPOs have fared, saying in a Tuesday note shared with MarketWatch that the IPO market
- [Inc Mag: "The 2026 IPO Wave Will Dwarf 1999 in Real Dollars. But 1 Metric Will Prove If AI Is a Bubble"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-the-2026-ipo-wave-will-dwarf-1999-in-real-dollars-but-1-metric-will-prove-if-ai-is-a-bubble/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, spent the 1990s sitting in on IPO pricing meetings. He said the process hasn’t changed in decades... Insiders typically want the stock to climb in its first weeks of trading without going parabolic. Not only does too large an
- [Bloomberg: "‘Two Sigma’ S&P Rally Signals Easy Money Has Already Been Made"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-two-sigma-sp-rally-signals-easy-money-has-already-been-made/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."At DataTrek, [co-founder Jessica] Rabe noted that the S&P 500’s year-to-date gain is only modestly outpacing the increase in earnings expectations, meaning forward price-to-earnings multiples remain capped at about 21 to 22 amid high bond yields, sticky inflation... “This lack of re-rating — i.e., stagnant S&P 500
- [Yahoo Finance: "Why rising interest rates haven't crushed stock valuations"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-why-rising-interest-rates-havent-crushed-stock-valuations/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "In his note to clients on Wednesday, Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, challenged the idea that rising rates automatically mean lower stock market valuations. From his note: “You have probably heard this sequence of statements many times: Long-term interest rates are increasing. This means
- [Bloomberg: "Why the Market Isn’t Working as Trump's Guardrail"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-why-the-market-isnt-working-as-trumps-guardrail/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research argues that the “strike price” for the Trump Put is “some way from where we are.” He offers the VIX index of equity volatility as a simple gauge. A VIX of 50 prompted last year’s climbdown on tariffs, he argues, while the administration
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC Talking SpaceX](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc-talking-spacex/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC breaking down SpaceX’s valuation versus Tesla. Watch it here!
- [MarketWatch: "Tech stocks seem to have ended their ‘difficult relationship’ with the bond market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-tech-stocks-seem-to-have-ended-their-difficult-relationship-with-the-bond-market-2/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "U.S. large-cap technology and growth stocks appear to have finally broken off their “difficult relationship” with long-term Treasury yields, according to DataTrek Research. “We consider that good news for investors since markets have returned to their normal condition and fundamentals are now back in the driver’s
- [MarketWatch: "Google's Waymo is raking in cash"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-googles-waymo-is-raking-in-cash/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... Google is active in the autonomous-driving market with its Waymo subsidiary, which has "has clearly emerged as the frontrunner," according to DataTrek cofounder Jessica Rabe. She noted on Wednesday that outside of companies in the pure "AI investment theme," Waymo raised the most capital in the first
- [Inc Mag: "Corporate Profits Just Hit a 17-Year High—and Wall Street Says the Best Is Yet to Come"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-corporate-profits-just-hit-a-17-year-high-and-wall-street-says-the-best-is-yet-to-come/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Even though earnings growth gets the headlines, expanding margins are what actually drive stock prices. “Earnings growth drives the narrative around price/earnings ratios, but it is trends in structural profitability that actually change investors’ perceptions of underlying value,” said DataTrek Research co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe".... Full article
- [Nasdaq Still Eerily Tracking its 1990s Bull Run](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-still-eerily-tracking-its-1990s-bull-run-2/): The Nasdaq Comp is closely tracking its mid- to late-1990s playbook, with the current AI-driven rally mirroring the earlier Internet-led bull market in both magnitude and path. While macro shocks (then: Asian Financial Crisis, now: US-Iran conflict) have created similar volatility, history shows geopolitical shocks ultimately find resolution. The larger takeaway is that secular tech
- [Nasdaq Still Eerily Tracking its 1990s Bull Run](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-still-eerily-tracking-its-1990s-bull-run/): The Nasdaq Comp is closely tracking its mid- to late-1990s playbook, with the current AI-driven rally mirroring the earlier Internet-led bull market in both magnitude and path. While macro shocks (then: Asian Financial Crisis, now: US-Iran conflict) have created similar volatility, history shows geopolitical shocks ultimately find resolution. The larger takeaway is that secular tech
- [Barron's: "Target and 5 More ‘Dividend Aristocrats’ to Own Now:](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-target-and-5-more-dividend-aristocrats-to-own-now/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index has outperformed the broad market by 13.9 percentage points over the past 100 trading days, according to a note Tuesday by DataTrek Research, its most dramatic stretch of outperformance since 2010. (To put the in context, the S&P 500 is down 6.9% over that
- [Inc Mag: "The economy's biggest strength has turned into a confusing risk"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-the-economys-biggest-strength-has-turned-into-a-confusing-risk/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek: ...."The risk, of course, is the looming threat of complacency. “Capital markets, be they for Treasuries or risky corporate bonds or small US public companies, all use the idea of a nearly recession-proof US economy as their current baseline,” wrote DataTrek co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe. “As long
- [WDWL w/ Josh Brown: This Is Why You “Never Ever Ever” Sell Your Energy Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-w-josh-brown-this-is-why-you-never-ever-ever-sell-your-energy-stocks/): Our latest episode of "What Did We Learn" with the always insightful Josh Brown is out! We gave our take on Energy stocks, when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp will be at tradeably oversold levels, and how to use our VIX playbook to make money in volatile markets like now. Click here to watch, thank you!
- [MarketWatch: "3 signals tied to severe market drops are all flashing now"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-3-signals-tied-to-severe-market-drops-are-all-flashing-now/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."Three factors that have preceded double-digit stock-market declines are all present in 2026. “Bad years for the S&P 500 are due to very specific factors, not just bad luck or arbitrary changes in investor sentiment,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, in commentary shared with MarketWatch on
- [Barron's: "Stock Analysts Are The Most Optimistic In a Decade. It May Be a Good Reason To Sell."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-stock-analysts-are-the-most-optimistic-in-a-decade-it-may-be-a-good-reason-to-sell/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Analysts have Buy rankings on 58.2% of companies in the S&P 500 heading into the second quarter, FactSet found. That compares to 36.5% of stocks that rated Hold and just 5.3% deemed Sell. Assuming the rate holds to month’s end, it will mark the highest monthly share of
- [Yahoo Finance: "The US economy may be strong — but it's delicate"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-us-economy-may-be-strong-but-its-delicate/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "As DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe wrote in a note this week, the recent spike in oil prices “will certainly” upend the low hire-low fire dynamic "if it persists long enough to cause recession concerns among public and private businesses." The ratio of job openings to unemployed
- [Barron's: "Are Banks Signaling a Recession? They’re ‘the Most Important’ Stocks to Watch Now."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-are-banks-signaling-a-recession-theyre-the-most-important-stocks-to-watch-now/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "The shellacking that big bank stocks have taken as of late could be an ominous sign about what’s next for the economy. Or not. It will all depend on how much worse the private-credit problems get for major financials. The sector bears watching, but it may not be time
- [MarketWatch: "The financial sector is sending some spooky technical signals about the stock market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-financial-sector-is-sending-some-spooky-technical-signals-about-the-stock-market/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ... "Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said the financials' weakness is reflecting not only concerns about exposure to private credit, but also worries that rising oil prices could slow the U.S. economy. Historically, a doubling in oil prices within a year often leads to a recession,
- [Inc Mag: "Big Tech Stocks Like the Magnificent 7 Suddenly Look Cheap"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-big-tech-stocks-like-the-magnificent-7-suddenly-look-cheap/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek: ... "According to DataTrek Research, all other S&P 500 sectors remain above their five-year average valuation, with the benchmark itself trading at a 6% premium against its recent history. Technology, meanwhile, currently hovers at a 9.3% discount against its last five years. In other words, the market’s most frothy
- [MarketWatch: "7 software stocks to buy as the sector shows signs of life"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-7-software-stocks-to-buy-as-the-sector-shows-signs-of-life/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."The software sector has shown some momentum after a tough stretch, leading to opportunities for investors willing to look past fears of artificial-intelligence disruption. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF a proxy for software stocks, is up 14% off its February lows. That marks “a surprising comeback,”
- [Barron's: "How to fight AI? The ‘Rolex effect’ could lift Apple and other consumer brands"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-how-to-fight-ai-the-rolex-effect-could-lift-apple-and-other-consumer-brands/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: What do luxury Swiss watch makers and companies like Apple, Walmart and Coca-Cola have in common? Strong brand loyalty. That emotional connection, one strategist argues, could help shield leading consumer stocks from the worst effects of the artificial-intelligence revolution. DataTrek Research made that case in a report Friday, arguing
- [Why Software Stocks Are Making a Comeback](https://datatrekresearch.com/why-software-stocks-are-making-a-comeback-2/): Microsoft, Salesforce, and Oracle are up an average of +3.5 percent since the US struck Iran versus the S&P 500’s -1.2 percent decline. In our latest video, we explain that while recent history shows innovative disruption (Gen AI) can hurt this group even more than a macro shock (2022), users may be more likely to
- [Why Software Stocks Are Making a Comeback](https://datatrekresearch.com/why-software-stocks-are-making-a-comeback/): Microsoft, Salesforce, and Oracle are up an average of +3.5 percent since the US struck Iran versus the S&P 500’s -1.2 percent decline. In this video, we explain that while recent history shows innovative disruption (Gen AI) can hurt this group even more than a macro shock (2022), users may be more likely to stick
- [Inc Mag: "Oil prices could hold the secret to the next stock market rally"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-oil-prices-could-hold-the-secret-to-the-next-stock-market-rally/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek: .... "“During periods of widescale military conflict in the Middle East, oil prices and US equities trade in virtual lock step,” wrote DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe. Complex as the geopolitics of the Middle East may be, the portfolio signal is surprisingly straightforward, according to history. Rather
- [The Most Important Stocks to Own Right Now](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-most-important-stocks-to-own-right-now/): Oil prices are climbing amid the US-Iran conflict, and that raises a critical question for investors: are you underweight Energy? In this video, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe explains how much exposure major global equity benchmarks actually have to the sector. Because Energy is often one of the few sectors that outperforms during an oil
- [The Most Important Stocks to Own Right Now](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-most-important-stocks-to-own-right-now-2/): Oil prices are climbing amid the US-Iran conflict, and that raises a critical question for investors: are you underweight Energy? In this video, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe explains how much exposure major global equity benchmarks actually have to the sector. Because Energy is often one of the few sectors that outperforms during an oil
- [MarketWatch: "Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ is rising as Iran conflict escalates. Here’s what investors should watch."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-wall-streets-fear-gauge-is-rising-as-iran-conflict-escalates-heres-what-investors-should-watch/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "When looking for a sweet spot to buy back into stocks, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, told MarketWatch that seeing the VIX close at 27.5 or above is as a solid rule of thumb. In the past, when the VIX has finished above that level, stocks
- [These Stock Market Moves Almost Never Happen — Until Now](https://datatrekresearch.com/these-stock-market-moves-almost-never-happen-until-now-2/): We’re seeing some of the most extreme equity market rotations in more than a decade, from US large caps to small caps, from US stocks to non-US equities, and from Semiconductors to Software names. In this video, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe explains that US Big Tech’s massive AI spending is at the heart of
- [These Stock Market Moves Almost Never Happen — Until Now](https://datatrekresearch.com/these-stock-market-moves-almost-never-happen-until-now/): We’re seeing some of the most extreme equity market rotations in more than a decade, from US large caps to small caps, from US stocks to non-US equities, and from Semiconductors to Software names.
- [Non-US Stocks: 3 Things You MUST Know in 2026](https://datatrekresearch.com/non-us-stocks-3-things-you-must-know-in-2026-2/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares 3 things you need to know about “Rest of World” equities as they continue to outperform US large cap stocks by a wide margin. For example, the MSCI All Country ex-US index is very different from the S&P 500 in key ways. For one, the S&P
- [Non-US Stocks: 3 Things You MUST Know in 2026](https://datatrekresearch.com/non-us-stocks-3-things-you-must-know-in-2026/): In our latest video, we share 3 things you need to know about “Rest of World” equities as they continue to outperform US large cap stocks by a wide margin.
- [IBD: "How The AI Bubble Could Burst. Lessons From The Dot-Com Stock Market Crash."](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-how-the-ai-bubble-could-burst-lessons-from-the-dot-com-stock-market-crash/): Except from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."There will be volatility, just like in every bull market," Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a December report. But there are differences between today's AI boom and the dot-com stock market. "These companies have much better fundamentals now than in the late
- [MarketWatch: "Popular QQQ ETF faces a crucial moment with Nvidia earnings on deck after its rare pullback"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-popular-qqq-etf-faces-a-crucial-moment-with-nvidia-earnings-on-deck-after-its-rare-pullback/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: ...."The Invesco QQQ Trust Series is down 3.2% over the last 50 trading days, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe said in a note emailed Wednesday. That’s “unusual because the Nasdaq-100 has an excellent win rate,” making money 74% of the time over any given 50-day holding period since 2015, she
- [WDWL w/ Josh Brown: Big Tech Has Til Year-End…or Else.](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-w-josh-brown-big-tech-has-til-year-endor-else/): Thanks to Josh Brown for a great conversation about US Big Tech's CapEx spends and what they mean for the "American exceptionalism trade". Bottom line: markets aren't going to wait forever for these investments to pay off. Big Tech has a year - maybe less - before investors start really questioning the wisdom of allocating
- [MarketWatch: "Anthropic is a prime IPO candidate for 2026"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-anthropic-is-a-prime-ipo-candidate-for-2026/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ... "Anthropic, once seen as somewhat of an also-ran in the world of artificial-intelligence chatbots, has made a name for itself by emphasizing AI coding tools. Now the company might end up doing one of the hottest initial public offerings of the year. Datatrek cofounder Jessica Rabe
- [How To Value Any Stock](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-to-value-any-stock-2/): Every investor needs a fast and accurate approach to equity valuation, and classic tools like price/earnings ratios are no longer useful. For example, Tesla trades for 200x earnings and GM goes for just 7x. This tells us nothing about whether one or the other is a good investment. In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick
- [How To Value Any Stock](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-to-value-any-stock/): Every investor needs a fast and accurate approach to equity valuation, and classic tools like price/earnings ratios are no longer useful. For example, Tesla trades for 200x earnings and GM goes for just 7x. This tells us nothing about whether one or the other is a good investment. In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick
- [MarketWatch: "The stock market looks expensive — but this chart shows why AI bubble fears in tech may be overblown"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-stock-market-looks-expensive-but-this-chart-shows-why-ai-bubble-fears-in-tech-may-be-overblown/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research studied the 10-year average of the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratios across the index and found that “the real story behind currently elevated S&P 500 valuations relative to history” lies within nine sectors other than information technology. “Technology has seen the smallest increase of any group,”
- [Americans are Job Searching at Recessionary Levels](https://datatrekresearch.com/americans-are-job-searching-at-recessionary-levels-2/): In this video, we show how Americans are searching for jobs more than during the Great Recession despite the US still being in a nominal economic expansion.
- [Americans are Job Searching at Recessionary Levels](https://datatrekresearch.com/americans-are-job-searching-at-recessionary-levels/): In this video, we show how Americans are job searching more than even during the Great Recession despite the US still being in a nominal economic expansion.
- [MarketWatch: "Software stocks sink, extending their historic underperformance. What comes next?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-software-stocks-sink-extending-their-historic-underperformance-what-comes-next/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Jessica Rabe, the co-founder of DataTrek Research, recently looked at the 100-day trailing returns of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF, two exchange-traded funds viewed as proxies for their respective industries. She noted that chips are now outperforming software by roughly 5 standard
- [Jan 2026: Global/US Equity Market Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/jan-2026-global-us-equity-market-returns-2/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas reviews everything you need to know about how global/US stock markets performed in January 2026 and what these moves signal for the year ahead.
- [Jan 2026: Global/US Equity Market Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/jan-2026-global-us-equity-market-returns/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas reviews everything you need to know about how global/US stock markets performed in January 2026 and what these moves signal for the year ahead.
- [Bloomberg: "Tesla’s Price Targets Rise Even as Its Profit Outlook Tanks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-teslas-price-targets-rise-even-as-its-profit-outlook-tanks/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "Wall Street is giving off mixed signals about Tesla Inc. Analysts are increasingly skeptical of the electric-vehicle maker’s earnings potential this year, but their expectations for the company’s stock price keep climbing. “Tesla is truly unique in capital markets,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research. “It
- [Opening Bell Daily: "Why political turmoil hasn't derailed the stock market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/opening-bell-daily-why-political-turmoil-hasnt-derailed-the-stock-market/): Excerpt from Opening Bell Daily quoting DataTrek: ..."The S&P 500 is positive to start the year and volatility — as tracked by the VIX — remains below its long-run average. The tariff shock last April helped remind investors how quickly markets can rebound from political noise. As the chart illustrates, those who did not panic-sell stocks
- [INC Mag: "The Stock Market Hinges Less on Earnings Than on Confidence Right Now"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-the-stock-market-hinges-less-on-earnings-than-on-confidence-right-now/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "According to estimates tracked by FactSet, S&P 500 profits are expected to rise 14 percent in 2026 and 15 percent in 2027, marking an acceleration from last year’s already solid growth. Those estimates “bake in very healthy earnings growth” and leave little room for profits alone
- [Nasdaq Comp: Historical “Year 4” Bull Market Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-comp-historical-year-4-bull-market-returns-2/): With the Nasdaq Comp up at least 20% in each of the last 3 years, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses what may happen in 2026.
- [Nasdaq Comp: Historical “Year 4” Bull Market Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-comp-historical-year-4-bull-market-returns/): With the Nasdaq Comp up at least 20% in each of the last 3 years, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses what may happen in 2026.
- [Station F: The Most Important Building in Europe for Stock Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/station-f-the-most-important-building-in-europe-for-stock-returns-2/): We share five key takeaways from our in-depth discussions with some of the most high-profile founders at Station F, the world’s largest startup campus in Paris.
- [Station F: The Most Important Building in Europe for Stock Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/station-f-the-most-important-building-in-europe-for-stock-returns/): We share five key takeaways from our in-depth discussions with some of the most high-profile founders at Station F, the world’s largest startup campus in Paris.
- [The Real Drivers of 20-Year S&P Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-real-drivers-of-20-year-sp-returns-2/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas reviews the history of 20-year compounded annual S&P 500 returns.
- [The Real Drivers of 20-Year S&P Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-real-drivers-of-20-year-sp-returns/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas reviews the history of 20-year compounded annual S&P 500 returns.
- [So Goes January, So Goes the Year](https://datatrekresearch.com/so-goes-january-so-goes-the-year-3/): In our latest video we answer whether the old Wall Street adage that the S&P 500’s January performance predicts rest of year returns is true.
- [So Goes January, So Goes the Year](https://datatrekresearch.com/so-goes-january-so-goes-the-year-2/): In our latest video we show whether the old Wall Street adage that the S&P 500’s January performance predicts rest of year returns is true.
- [Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech](https://datatrekresearch.com/why-nvidia-is-superior-to-90s-tech-2/): We explain why Nvidia’s gains since the Nasdaq Comp’s 12/2022 low have trounced those of the 1990s Tech stars over the same timeframe from the start of 1995.
- [Why Nvidia is Superior to 90s Tech](https://datatrekresearch.com/why-nvidia-is-superior-to-90s-tech/): We explain why Nvidia’s gains since the Nasdaq Comp’s 12/2022 low have trounced those of the 1990s Tech stars over the same timeframe from the start of 1995.
- [US Big Tech’s Superior Earnings Estimate Momentum](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-big-techs-superior-earnings-estimate-momentum-2/): We share an important fact we rarely see mentioned: US Big Tech – save TSLA – has superior earnings estimate momentum for calendar Q3/Q4 2025 and next year.
- [US Big Tech’s Superior Earnings Estimate Momentum](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-big-techs-superior-earnings-estimate-momentum/): We share an important fact we rarely see mentioned: US Big Tech – save TSLA – has superior earnings estimate momentum for calendar Q3/Q4 2025 and next year.
- [Station F(uture): Europe’s Top AI Startup Founders Speak Out](https://datatrekresearch.com/station-future-europes-top-ai-startup-founders-speak-out-2/): We share our takeaways from our in-depth discussions with 4 of the most high-profile founders at Station F, the world’s largest startup campus located in Paris.
- [Station F(uture): Europe’s Top AI Startup Founders Speak Out](https://datatrekresearch.com/station-future-europes-top-ai-startup-founders-speak-out-3/): We share our takeaways from our in-depth discussions with 4 of the most high-profile founders at Station F, the world’s largest startup campus located in Paris.
- [Oil Shocks/War: Lessons from 1990 – 1991](https://datatrekresearch.com/oil-shocks-war-lessons-from-1990-1991-2/): In our latest video, we break down how oil prices and US stocks responded to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 and the Gulf War I in Jan-Feb 1991.
- [Oil Shocks/War: Lessons from 1990 - 1991](https://datatrekresearch.com/oil-shocks-war-lessons-from-1990-1991/): We break down how oil prices and US stocks responded to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 and the subsequent Gulf War I in Jan - Feb 1991.
- [Business Insider: "Stocks and bonds are behaving like the US economy is recession-proof"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-stocks-and-bonds-are-behaving-like-the-us-economy-is-recession-proof/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... ""Recession-proof." Professional economists might balk at the phrase, but it's how the stock and bond markets see the economy in the second half of 2025. DataTrek Research wrote on Tuesday that markets are flashing signs of extreme confidence in the trajectory of the US economy. Nicholas Colas,
- [WDWL w/ Josh Brown: The AI Bull Market Is Perfectly Tracking the Original 90’s Internet Boom](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-w-josh-brown-the-ai-bull-market-is-perfectly-tracking-the-original-90s-internet-boom/): Our latest episode of "What Did We Learn" with the always insightful Josh Brown is out! We talk about: Current earnings and the upside for the S&P 500 from here amid rich valuations. How the Nasdaq Comp continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run and what it means for US large cap Tech stocks going
- [Station F(uture): Europe’s Top AI Startup Founders Speak Out](https://datatrekresearch.com/station-future-europes-top-ai-startup-founders-speak-out/): In our latest video, we share the key takeaways from our in-depth discussions with 4 of the most high-profile founders at Station F, the world’s largest startup campus located in Paris. The upshot is that developing and adopting home-grown AI is a make-or-break issue for France and the EU. There are reasons for hope, ranging from
- [MarketWatch: "Why gold may be in a new paradigm as the yellow metal soars in 2025"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-why-gold-may-be-in-a-new-paradigm-as-the-yellow-metal-soars-in-2025/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Gold may be in a new paradigm after beating a widely followed gauge of the U.S. stock market over the past two decades. “Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 20 years by a wide margin,” according to a DataTrek Research note emailed Wednesday —
- [Barron's: "The S&P 500 Just Hit a Record High. History Says It Will Finish 2025 Even Higher."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-sp-500-just-hit-a-record-high-history-says-it-will-finish-2025-even-higher/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: ... "Can the rally continue? There are plenty of reasons to be wary of the current bull market. But a simple look at the stock market’s historical returns, suggests it’s rare for a calendar year to set its high water mark as early as July, according to a
- [MarketWatch: "Stock traders take note: There’s hope for market timing, after all"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-stock-traders-take-note-theres-hope-for-market-timing-after-all/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek: .... "The S&P 500 would be up more than 30% this year as of November 8, but for eight particularly bad days for the U.S. market. That’s more than double the benchmark index’s actual return of 14.1% over that time. I point this out to provide additional perspective on a provocative
- [MarketWatch: "Why the Nasdaq-100 may not be dangerously overbought as it scores fresh record high"](https://datatrekresearch.com/178291-2/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "The Nasdaq-100 index’s unusually strong rally has left investors questioning whether U.S. large-cap tech stocks are “dangerously overextended,” according to DataTrek Research. After its April 8 low, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the Nasdaq-100, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series, soared 26.6% in the 50 trading days through
- [CNBC: "Fed chairs are tough on policy in their final year, and Powell is no different, DataTrek’s Colas says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-fed-chairs-are-tough-on-policy-in-their-final-year-and-powell-is-no-different-datatreks-colas-says-2/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seems unlikely to announce a rate cut plan on Wednesday following the central bank’s policy meeting. That puts him on a similar path as his predecessors, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell’s term as the Fed’s leader is set to
- [Barron's: "The Nasdaq Is Mirroring the 1990s. It Isn’t a Bubble This Time."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-nasdaq-is-mirroring-the-1990s-it-isnt-a-bubble-this-time/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "While there are plenty of reasons to assume that this rally won’t end the way that one did—valuations are more reasonable and profits are stronger—the Nasdaq “continues to eerily track its mid-1990s bull run,” using 1995 and 2022 as starting points, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe said
- [Barron's: "Stocks Are Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era. That Alone Doesn’t Make a Bubble."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-stocks-are-pricier-than-they-were-in-the-dot-com-era-that-alone-doesnt-make-a-bubble/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Yes, valuations look high, admits DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, but he says there are mitigating factors to consider. “Computing power, using Moore’s Law as it applies to consumer-oriented semiconductors as a proxy, has increased by about 380,000 percent (not a typo) since 1999,” he wrote in
- [MarketWatch: "How junk bonds are signaling the same optimism about the U.S. economy as stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-how-junk-bonds-are-signaling-the-same-optimism-about-the-u-s-economy-as-stocks/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ..."The U.S. junk bond market is sending an optimistic message about the economy, despite market volatility around tariffs. “This risk-wary market is just as bullish on the American economy as stocks,” DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a note emailed Tuesday. High-yield corporate bonds, often referred to
- [Yahoo Finance: "The 'new normal' of growth stock dominance"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-new-normal-of-growth-stock-dominance/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "In fact, the performance gap between US large and small caps has widened considerably over the last two-and-a-half years, according to a new analysis by DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas, who wrote in a recent note to clients that the duration of the relative outperformance suggests it's
- [CNBC" Fed chairs are tough on policy in their final year, and Powell is no different, DataTrek’s Colas says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-fed-chairs-are-tough-on-policy-in-their-final-year-and-powell-is-no-different-datatreks-colas-says/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell seems unlikely to announce a rate cut plan on Wednesday following the central bank’s policy meeting. That puts him on a similar path as his predecessors, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell’s term as the Fed’s leader is set to
- [MarketWatch: "Here’s the ‘danger zone’ for U.S. oil prices causing recession, according to DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-heres-the-danger-zone-for-u-s-oil-prices-causing-recession-according-to-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Oil prices recently jumped on worries over the fallout from escalated tensions in the Middle East, but not to levels that risk leading to a recession, according to DataTrek Research. Based on recent U.S. oil prices of around $60 a barrel, “the danger zone” for West Texas
- [Nasdaq Eerily Tracking its 1990s Bull Run (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-eerily-tracking-its-1990s-bull-run-transcript/): In our latest video, we show that the Nasdaq Comp continues to broadly, and almost eerily, track its mid-1990s experience in terms of its bull run and occasional pullbacks. Since the Nasdaq Comp’s low in December 2022, it is up 93 pct. That’s close to the Comp’s 87 pct gain over the same period from the
- [Nasdaq Eerily Tracking its 1990s Bull Run](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-eerily-tracking-its-1990s-bull-run/): In our latest video, we show that the Nasdaq Comp continues to broadly, and almost eerily, track its mid-1990s experience in terms of its bull run and occasional pullbacks. Since the Nasdaq Comp’s low in December 2022, it is up 93 pct. That’s close to the Comp’s 87 pct gain over the same period from
- [WDWL w/ Josh Brown: Why February Was Probably Not the Top](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-w-josh-brown-why-february-was-probably-not-the-top/): A hearty thanks to Josh Brown for having us back on the Compound to discuss the current market environment, comparisons to 1994, and why Tesla/Palantir are faith-based investments. Check out the video here on YouTube!
- [MarketWatch: "‘Big Money’ turns bullish on stocks. Will that lead the S&P 500 to a ‘melt up’?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-big-money-turns-bullish-on-stocks-will-that-lead-the-sp-500-to-a-melt-up/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "Large, sophisticated investors now appear to be embracing the rally in U.S. stocks, as the S&P 500 attempts to remain above 6,000 in a rise toward its record high notched in February. “Institutional investors are, believe it or not, quite bullish right now,” DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas
- [MarketWatch: "Lightening up on stocks is 'perfectly defensible' given valuations, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-lightening-up-on-stocks-is-perfectly-defensible-given-valuations-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, has for some while been sanguine about prospects for U.S. stocks, particularly large caps. So, his latest observation on valuations is worth paying attention to given he seems notably more cautious. Colas says that over the last 10 years, the S&P
- [CNBC: "The rest of the world is trouncing the U.S. stock market. Why that could continue"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-the-rest-of-the-world-is-trouncing-the-u-s-stock-market-why-that-could-continue/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "This outperformance by the rest of the world is uncommon to say the least. DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas noted that international stocks are outpacing the S&P 500 by more than three standard deviations over the past 100 days. That is only the third time that has
- [Barron's: "Stocks Should Set New Highs, Unless 1994 Casts a Long Shadow on the S&P 500"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-stocks-should-set-new-highs-unless-1994-casts-a-long-shadow-on-the-sp-500/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: ... "It would be unusual, but not impossible, for the S&P 500 to muddle through the rest of the year without overtaking that high, writes DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe. It’s happened only once since 1980, some three decades ago in 1994, but could do so again—to investors’
- [Yahoo Finance: "The 'Magnificent 7' are outperforming other stocks again — here's why"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-magnificent-7-are-outperforming-other-stocks-again-heres-why/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTek's Nick Colas: ... "DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note to clients that Big Tech's recent outperformance shows "this important slice of the US equity market has genuine momentum." "The fact that capital is rotating back into US large cap Tech/Big Tech is further proof that the
- [Barron's: "The Tax Bill Could Add to the Deficit—and to Stock Gains"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-tax-bill-could-add-to-the-deficit-and-to-stock-gains/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ...."Still, DataTrek Research Co-founder Nicholas Colas writes the discussion about taxes and tariffs misses the mark. Using data going back nearly a century he found that economic growth is the most reliable way to increase tax receipts. ‘If American policymakers want to decrease the US budget deficit in
- [Inc Mag: "The Stock Market and Bond Market Aren’t on the Same Page"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-the-stock-market-and-bond-market-arent-on-the-same-page/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine and Opening Bell Daily quoting DataTrek: .... "Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe at DataTrek Research — who have been on fire with their analysis lately — pointed out Monday that neither of the two prior downgrades preceded a recession. In fact, both lined up with long-term bull markets for stocks. “Rating agencies play
- [MarketWatch: "VIX jumps after Moody’s downgrades U.S. credit rating"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-vix-jumps-after-moodys-downgrades-u-s-credit-rating/): ... “While the Moody’s downgrade may cause a bit of near-term equity market volatility, history shows it does not portend structurally higher interest rates, an imminent recession, or declining stock prices,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note emailed Monday. “Rating agencies play a critical role in capital markets, but their decisions
- [Yahoo Finance: "Wall Street says 'buy the dip' after Moody's credit downgrade"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-credit-downgrades-dont-usually-have-lasting-impacts-on-stocks/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ...."Both S&P and Fitch’s downgrades line up with longer term bull markets for US equities, showing that credit rating agency decisions have not provided any signal about the future direction of stock prices," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a note to clients on Monday morning"....
- [MarketWatch: "Wall Street’s fear gauge just dropped with striking speed. What historically comes next for stocks?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-wall-streets-fear-gauge-just-dropped-with-striking-speed-what-historically-comes-next-for-stocks/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The Cboe Volatility Index VIX slipped Tuesday to 18.22 , according to FactSet data. That’s after closing Monday at 18.4, below its long-term average of 19.5, to slide “solidly back in bull-market territory,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed Tuesday. That marked “a good
- [The Curse of the Too-High VIX](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-curse-of-the-too-high-vix/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas reviews S&P 500 forward returns when the VIX closes 1 to +4 standard deviations above its long run average. Buying US large caps when the VIX is high is usually a great strategy but, once it closes over 50, you must often live through some pretty choppy
- [CNBC: "This ultimate global safe haven benefiting from the dollar’s downfall is up 11% this year"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-this-ultimate-global-safe-haven-benefiting-from-the-dollars-downfall-is-up-11-this-year/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The strong performance of the Swiss franc and euro over the past two weeks ”tells you pretty much everything you need to know about current investor risk sentiment,” said Nicholas Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, in a Tuesday note to clients. “Capital preservation is the name of the global
- [Barron's: "The Stock Market Isn’t Done Falling. This Key Level Is a Buy Signal."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-stock-market-isnt-done-falling-this-key-level-is-a-buy-signal/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas attributes this conventional wisdom to the market’s behavior following the notorious October 1987 stock market crash. The market initially rebounded, but then moved sideways for several weeks until December 1987 when it retouched the October low—before finding its footing and entering a new
- [MarketWatch Video: "How to invest when the VIX–Wall Street’s fear index–spikes"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-video-how-to-invest-when-the-vix-wall-streets-fear-index-spikes/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas did an explainer on the VIX with MarketWatch's Macarena Carrizosa. They got into all the details of what are normal, elevated, and crisis levels of expected volatility. A huge topic today, and with clear implications for forward returns. Watch it here on MarketWatch!
- [MarketWatch: "Earnings season is off to a lackluster start: DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-earnings-season-is-off-to-a-lackluster-start-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The first-quarter earnings season has been off to something of a bumpy start, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek. Here are some factoids, courtesy of Colas: The S&P 500 has seen 12% of its constituents report earnings so far, Colas said. Of companies that have reported,
- [Extreme Moves: European & US Tech Stocks (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/extreme-moves-european-us-tech-stocks-transcript/): The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Tech sector recently had 3 standard deviation moves to the downside over the prior 50 trading days, while MSCI Europe just outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 sigmas over the last 100 trading days. Both moves are extremely unusual, so in our latest video we discuss whether they can continue
- [Extreme Moves: European & US Tech Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/extreme-moves-european-us-tech-stocks/): The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Tech sector recently had 3 standard deviation moves to the downside over the prior 50 trading days, while MSCI Europe just outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 sigmas over the last 100 trading days. Both moves are extremely unusual, so in our latest video we discuss whether they can
- [CNBC: "Wall Street fear gauge out of ‘crisis zone’, but more confidence is needed, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-wall-street-fear-gauge-out-of-crisis-zone-but-more-confidence-is-needed-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The drop means the Vix is now outside of the most concerning area, according to DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas. The short burst higher also does not mean another downturn for stocks is imminent. “Short bursts of VIX readings in the +35.1 ‘Crisis Zone’ need not signal the
- [MarketWatch: "What the recent rise in ‘real’ Treasury bond yields signals amid tariff worries"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-what-the-recent-rise-in-real-treasury-bond-yields-signals-amid-tariff-worries/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ..."Investors watched last week’s rise in the 10-year Treasury yield with concern that tariff uncertainty was hurting the appeal of U.S. government debt as a haven in market tumult. But “if we were truly facing a watershed moment for Treasuries, one would at least expect real rates to
- [CNBC: "S&P 5,000: Wall Street finally knows where the ‘Trump put’ is"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-sp-5000-wall-street-finally-knows-where-the-trump-put-is/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "“The ‘Trump Put’ is struck at S&P 5,000. That was the index’s level [Wednesday] morning when he posted on social media ‘THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!’” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note to clients. “Readers with long memories may recall that
- [MarketWatch: "Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ soars to a rare ‘crisis’ level. What that means for stocks."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-wall-streets-fear-gauge-soars-to-a-rare-crisis-level-what-that-means-for-stocks/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "It’s rare to see Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge end as high as it did on Friday — with closes above 40 historically signaling “a crisis that demands an immediate policy response,” according to DataTrek Research. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) was rising again on Monday morning after
- [Is the American Exceptionalism Trade Dead?](https://datatrekresearch.com/is-the-american-exceptionalism-trade-dead/): In our latest video DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe shows how despite the S&P 500 underperforming the MSCI All Country World ex-US Index so far this year, it has an excellent long term track record of beating rest of world stocks over a 2-year holding period. Since 2011, it has done so 98% of the time
- [How US Small Caps Lost Their Edge](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-us-small-caps-lost-their-edge/): In our latest video DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe shows how the Russell 2000 has been slowly losing its performance edge versus the S&P 500 over the last 2 decades. She explains why US small caps went from being reliable outperformers to a trade that needs to be well-timed based on the alignment of specific
- [The 1% Rule: Equity Vol and Future Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-1-rule-equity-vol-and-future-returns/): In our latest video DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe shares our preferred measure of how much investors “feel” real-time volatility, which is by tracking how many times the S&P 500 moves more than 1 percent up or down from one day to the next. The index has already moved more than 1 percent up or
- [MarketWatch: "Small caps have been hit this year but are still not sufficiently oversold, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-small-caps-have-been-hit-this-year-but-are-still-not-sufficiently-oversold-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Colas's takeaway from the chart is that "U.S. small caps are neither sufficiently oversold nor have they exhibited any structural advantage versus large caps since 2020 so, in our view, they are not a timely investment right now." "There will be a time to load up on
- [Barron's: "The 'Trump Put' Has Changed. It May Take Far More Pain to Kick In."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-trump-put-has-changed-it-may-take-far-more-pain-to-kick-in/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The White House’s apparent indifference to the market has called into question a belief that Trump could be swayed by moves in stocks. “About the only positive things one can say about today’s tariff announcement is that 1) it is something close to a worst-case scenario, and
- [MarketWatch: "VIX volatility gauge shows U.S. stocks 'on verge of bear market': DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-vix-volatility-gauge-shows-u-s-stocks-on-verge-of-bear-market-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "In an "unhealthy sign," the average closing level of the index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, over the last 30 sessions has been 21.4, above its long-term average of 19.5, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Wednesday night note. Since its launch in
- [MarketWatch: "The ‘VIX’ is on the verge of signaling a bear market for U.S. stocks, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-vix-is-on-the-verge-of-signaling-a-bear-market-for-u-s-stocks-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "But it’s not so much the fresh lurch higher for the “VIX” that is a concern for Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Such spikes often signal buying opportunities for stocks, he observed. What worries him is that, even before the latest bout of market anxiety, the
- [CNBC:"Wall Street’s fear gauge is close to signaling a bear market, says DataTrek Research"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbcwall-streets-fear-gauge-is-close-to-signaling-a-bear-market-says-datatrek-research/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Wall Street’s fear gauge is close to signaling a bear market, according to DataTrek Research. The CBOE Volatility Index topped the 29 level on Thursday in a sign the stock sell-off will continue unless volatility abates from here. Typically, a reading above 20 indicates elevated fear and uncertainty
- [Barron's: "Microsoft, and Nvidia. Here’s Why That’s Problematic."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-microsoft-and-nvidia-heres-why-thats-problematic/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ..."Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, pointed out in a Thursday report that according to research from FactSet, more than 90% of the analysts covering Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Nvidia have Buy ratings on those stocks".... Full article here on Barron's.
- [Barron's: "The Market Snaps Its Losing Streak. Don’t Let Your Guard Down."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-market-snaps-its-losing-streak-dont-let-your-guard-down/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Investors might want to curb their enthusiasm for small-caps, however. The sheer proliferation of private-equity and venture-capital firms in recent years has translated into more quality small-cap stocks being kept in private hands rather than debuting in public markets, notes DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. “That explains
- [Bloomberg: "Tesla’s Retail Fans Buy the Stock at a Pace Never Seen Before"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-teslas-retail-fans-buy-the-stock-at-a-pace-never-seen-before/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Tesla made some rookie to mid-stage public market investors extremely wealthy, a lot of people became millionaires because of this stock,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research. “People don’t forget that. And they will come back to a stock again and again if they feel it has been
- [Bloomberg: "Cathie Wood Fans Plow $300 Million Into Battered Flagship ETF Despite Big Losses"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-cathie-wood-fans-plow-300-million-into-battered-flagship-etf-despite-big-losses/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Part of what catapulted Wood to fame was her bold calls on speculative tech firms, which comprise many of her holdings. An analysis by DataTrek Research LLC shows that a number of ARKK’s 10 largest positions in November 2021 remain at the top of her leaderboard —
- [Barron's: "The Stock Market Selloff Looks Scary. Watch This Sign for the Time to Buy."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-stock-market-selloff-looks-scary-watch-this-sign-for-the-time-to-buy/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "An elevated VIX reading can provide a buying opportunity—but we aren’t quite there yet, suggests a note Friday from market researcher DataTrek. The key VIX levels to watch for are 27.3 and 35.1, which represent one- and two-standard deviations from long-term average, according to DataTrek co-founder Nicholas
- [Gold or Tech Stocks: Which is the Better Investment?](https://datatrekresearch.com/gold-or-tech-stocks-which-is-the-better-investment/): In our latest video DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe explains why investors are best served owning both US large cap growth stocks and gold. The former reflects human innovation, which outperforms over the long run. The latter outperforms when humans question their own ingenuity, like now. Innovation deserves a much larger allocation, while gold serves
- [WSJ: "Stocks Have a Big, Expensive Problem"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-stocks-have-a-big-expensive-problem/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek: .... "The U.S. stock market is the big dog of the global stock market, and recently it has taken on Clifford proportions at two-thirds of global market value. That outweighs America’s one-quarter of the world’s economy and 4% of the world’s population, but the U.S. tail has
- [The Dull Market Sell Signal](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-dull-market-sell-signal/): “Never short a dull market” is one of Wall Street’s oldest sayings. In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shows how the VIX can tell us when it’s time to sell. Dull markets are always bull markets. But… When volatility starts to pick up, bear markets usually follow. Watch it here on our YouTube channel. Please hit
- [YTD Global/US Equity Performance Review](https://datatrekresearch.com/ytd-global-us-equity-performance-review/): The year has started off with non-US stocks dramatically outperforming the S&P 500, a very different dynamic versus the last 2 years. In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas puts that performance in historical perspective and explains why non-US stocks are simply playing a bit of catchup after their dramatic Q4 2024 underperformance. He
- [Inc Mag: "The Stock Market Wasn’t Supposed to Look Like This Under Trump 2.0"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-the-stock-market-wasnt-supposed-to-look-like-this-under-trump-2-0/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Tariffs likely raise prices, at least in the short term, on a population still suffering from the inflation of the past few years,” DataTrek Research founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe wrote in a note. “Restrictions on immigration will reduce growth in the U.S. labor force and
- [Barron's: "Auto Stocks Hate Tariffs. The ‘Chicken Tax’ Explains Why."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-auto-stocks-hate-tariffs-the-chicken-tax-explains-why/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "With tariffs looming, it’s time to tell “the tale of one of the longest running tariffs in U.S. history. It is called the Chicken Tax,” DataTrek Research co-founder and former Wall Street auto analyst Nicholas Colas wrote in a Thursday report. In 1964, President Lyndon Johnson imposed a 25% tariff on several
- [MarketWatch: "Tech stocks seem to have ended their ‘difficult relationship’ with the bond market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-tech-stocks-seem-to-have-ended-their-difficult-relationship-with-the-bond-market/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "U.S. large-cap technology and growth stocks appear to have finally broken off their “difficult relationship” with long-term Treasury yields, according to DataTrek Research. “We consider that good news for investors since markets have returned to their normal condition and fundamentals are now back in the driver’s seat,”
- [Does Bitcoin Trade like Gold or Stocks?](https://datatrekresearch.com/does-bitcoin-trade-like-gold-or-stocks/): Bitcoin is neither “digital gold” nor an amped up play on US stocks. In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas, the first Wall Street analyst to write about bitcoin, shows that its price action shares little in common with either gold or the S&P 500. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are unique, making it a useful portfolio
- [Barron's: "These Bonds Look Like a Bad Bet. What to Buy Instead."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-these-bonds-look-like-a-bad-bet-what-to-buy-instead/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "U.S. high-yield corporate spreads remain well below their 2019 trade-war levels, an optimistic sign from this risk-wary market,” writes DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas".... Full article here on Barron's.
- [MarketWatch: "This ETF briefly beat the S&P 500 in 2025. Why one analyst remains cautious."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-this-etf-briefly-beat-the-sp-500-in-2025-why-one-analyst-remains-cautious/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: ...."While RSP aims to provide a broader picture of the stock market’s performance by limiting the concentration risk in megacap technology companies, it is not as unbiased of an index as it may appear, according to DataTrek Research. “Companies, not sectors, are weighted equally in the equal-weight S&P
- [Yahoo Finance: "Why Trump's tariffs aren't steering Wall Street off a 'bullish' path for stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-why-trumps-tariffs-arent-steering-wall-street-off-a-bullish-path-for-stocks/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed out in a note to clients that over the past 10 years, the average daily move of the index falls in a range of 1.1% in either direction, showing that recent losses in the market haven't been abnormal. The same could
- [MarketWatch: "Investors shake off trade-war fears, but wonder how long the calm will last"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-investors-shake-off-trade-war-fears-but-wonder-how-long-the-calm-will-last-2/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Investors are largely seeing through worrisome trade war headlines, which is entirely understandable,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Tariffs and trade wars thus far fail to meet the criteria of an actionable market shock,” Colas wrote in a note on Tuesday. This criteria includes whether
- [CNBC: "A trader’s guide to surviving Trump’s trade war market volatility: 4 questions you should ask"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-a-traders-guide-to-surviving-trumps-trade-war-market-volatility-4-questions-you-should-ask/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "With tariff uncertainty expected to loom over markets for the foreseeable future, here are four questions traders should ask to navigate the volatility, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research... ....But wary investors can keep in mind a “4-point playbook” before they start to worry about
- [MarketWatch: "Investors shake off trade-war fears, but wonder how long the calm will last"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-investors-shake-off-trade-war-fears-but-wonder-how-long-the-calm-will-last/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Investors are largely seeing through worrisome trade war headlines, which is entirely understandable,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Tariffs and trade wars thus far fail to meet the criteria of an actionable market shock,” Colas wrote in a note on Tuesday. This criteria includes whether
- [CNBC: "What did we learn from Monday’s market action? Cheap AI is a good thing, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-what-did-we-learn-from-mondays-market-action-cheap-ai-is-a-good-thing-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ....But DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas sees all this as positive. “Almost 80 percent of [Monday’s] DeepSeek-related S&P 500 selloff was due to Nvidia. Apple, Meta, and Amazon were up. Microsoft/Alphabet were down, but not horribly so,” he said. “The market is telling us that cheap, open source AI is a good thing. Less AI-related
- [How Much Tech Do You Own?](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-much-tech-do-you-own/): In today’s video, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe goes over information that is crucial for every investor to know: how much Tech exposure you have in popular funds by region and investment style. That’s especially important given the 8 US Big Tech companies’ high valuations, a concern of many investors. For example, did you realize over
- [Barron's: "Why the Stock Market Loves the Latest Raft of Earnings"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-why-the-stock-market-loves-the-latest-raft-of-earnings/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Similarly, DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas calculates that companies are beating earnings estimates by 9.1%, better than “the 5% earnings beat amount we recently outlined as the target to keep analysts’ 2025 estimates intact,” he wrote. But there are a couple caveats: First, only 12% of S&P 500
- [MarketWatch: "The 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 5% again. Why stock-market investors are freaking out."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-10-year-treasury-yield-is-nearing-5-again-why-stock-market-investors-are-freaking-out/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... “Markets are spooked by the 5% level on the 10-year [yield] because it is the outer limit of an entire generation’s experience with prevailing interest rates [over the past 20 years]. The last time we went past 5% was in mid-2007, and we all know how that
- [Yahoo Finance: "Why rising bond yields are such a problem for stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-why-rising-bond-yields-are-such-a-problem-for-stocks/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "For one, it's not normal. At least not in the post-financial crisis world. DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed out in a note to clients that the 10-year Treasury yield has averaged 2.91% over the past two decades. "Markets are spooked by the 5% level on
- [CNBC: "These are the only two things that have mattered and will matter for stocks, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-these-are-the-only-two-things-that-have-mattered-and-will-matter-for-stocks-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Markets rode the wave of both factors, mostly up but occasionally down, through the year, and likely face the same fate in 2025 as both serve as vital catalysts for the fate of risk assets, according to a DataTrek Research analysis. “We continue to believe that U.S./global
- [Barron's: "The Stock Market Is Partying Like It’s the ’90s. There Are Some Big Differences."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-stock-market-is-partying-like-its-the-90s-there-are-some-big-differences/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ...."The stock market’s stellar gains in recent years, paired with exuberance about artificial intelligence and other technology trends, have drawn comparisons to the dot-com bubble. Yet there are important differences, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.... The S&P 500 back-to-back years of gains north of 20% in
- [Opening Bell Daily: "The $28 trillion Treasury market is flashing a warning for the economy"](https://datatrekresearch.com/opening-bell-daily-the-28-trillion-treasury-market-is-flashing-a-warning-for-the-economy/): ...."In any case, to DataTrek Research cofounders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, zooming out provides a less insidious explanation for the bond market. Real 10-year yields — that is, adjusted for inflation — have averaged 1.9% over the last 12 months, just below the 2.1% seen from 2003 to 2007, an era when the debt-to-GDP ratio
- [Inc Magazine: "Big Tech Is So Dominant the Stock Market Would Have Been Flat for 2 Years Without It"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-magazine-big-tech-is-so-dominant-the-stock-market-would-have-been-flat-for-2-years-without-it/): Excerpt from Inc Magazine quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe: .... "To DataTrek Research co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, the Magnificent Seven will once again determine what sort of year the S&P 500 has, and how large-cap stocks perform compared with small-caps and other countries’ indices. On a price return basis, the S&P
- [MarketWatch: "Market participants focus on historical anomaly in 10-year Treasury yield"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-market-participants-focus-on-historical-anomaly-in-10-year-treasury-yield/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The 10-year Treasury yield has spiked by roughly 100 basis points since mid-September to 4.68% as of Wednesday, an amount that's just as large as the Federal Reserve's total interest-rate cuts last year. This dynamic is something that's rarely been seen before, sparking debate among market
- [Warren Buffett Underperforms US Tech Stocks Over Time (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/warren-buffett-underperforms-us-tech-stocks-over-time-transcript/): In today’s video, we show that the S&P 500 Tech sector (ETF symbol XLK) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have, on average, outperformed Berkshire Hathaway by 4.3-5.0 percentage points over any given year back to 2010. That’s because they leverage disruptive innovation rather than rely on exposure to more traditional industries. BRK sometimes outperforms, but that’s when
- [The Most Important Lesson I Learned in B-School (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-most-important-lesson-i-learned-in-b-school-transcript/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas goes back to his time at the University of Chicago and shares the most important lesson he learned while getting his MBA. It starts with a famous Harvard Business School case study about a greeting card company and ends with lessons for every trader and investor. Watch it here on our YouTube channel! Please hit
- [Station F, Disruption, and Long Run Stock Returns (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/station-f-disruption-and-long-run-stock-returns-transcript/): In today’s video, we show that the S&P 500 has dramatically outperformed MSCI Europe over the last decade (CAGR of 13.4% vs 5.7%), in large part due to the success of US Big Tech. For Europe to be competitive, it must embrace risk taking and entrepreneurship. Last month we toured Station F, the largest startup campus
- [S&P +50% Over the Last 2 Years, So What’s Next? (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-50-over-the-last-2-years-so-whats-next-transcript/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses 2- and 3-year return averages for the S&P 500 and shows why US large caps still look attractive after their +50% gain over the last 2 years. Watch it here on our YouTube channel! Please hit the like and subscribe button if you find it useful, thank you. (Published October 3, 2024) Transcript
- [Our Best Investment Hack (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/our-best-investment-hack-transcript/): (Published September 22, 2024) DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares his simple hack to help you avoid long-run investment losers and give you a decent shot at finding great stocks. He gives 8 examples of both good and bad names and explains why they ended up being productive or lousy investments. Watch it here on our YouTube channel! Please hit
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC Giving his Market Outlook](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc-giving-his-market-outlook/): "Nicholas Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss market outlooks." Watch it here on CNBC!
- [CNBC: "Investors need to adjust rate outlook but shouldn’t panic, DataTrek’s Colas says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-investors-need-to-adjust-rate-outlook-but-shouldnt-panic-datatreks-colas-says/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ...."Investors, though, shouldn’t get too nervous, as the central bank is merely responding to a strong economy and the elevated inflation that comes with it, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. “Equity markets were clearly disappointed by Powell’s comments, but nothing he said fundamentally alters the bull
- [MarketWatch: "Why stock-market volatility spike signals Wednesday’s rout could be a buying opportunity"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-why-stock-market-volatility-spike-signals-wednesdays-rout-could-be-a-buying-opportunity/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Wednesday’s steep selloff in the U.S. stock market triggered a sudden spike in Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” posing a buying opportunity for investors and may spark a strong year-end stretch for stocks, according to market analysts. “The sudden spike in the VIX strongly suggests that Wednesday’s selloff is
- [MarketWatch: "Nvidia is in correction territory. Should investors be worried?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-nvidia-is-in-correction-territory-should-investors-be-worried/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "But according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, they shouldn't be. Because as it turns out, the bull market can continue without Nvidia's help. "The S&P 500 and large cap Tech are up 1.7 percent since NVDA’s November highs, and the QQQs have rallied 4.8 pct. On
- [Bloomberg: "Can Trump Make American Exceptionalism Last?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-can-trump-make-american-exceptionalism-last/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: "As shown by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek in the following chart of the rolling relative one-year performance of MSCI’s everyone-but-the-US index, deep underperformance has been the norm, and periods when the US was beaten have been fleeting. Recently, they’ve trailed to a statistically significant degree..." Full article here
- [Inc Mag/Opening Bell Daily: "Attention Investors: Betting Against the U.S. Is a Losing Strategy"](https://datatrekresearch.com/inc-mag-opening-bell-daily-attention-investors-betting-against-the-u-s-is-a-losing-strategy/): Excerpt from Inc and Opening Bell Daily quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe: "In effect, diversification fails just as investors need it most. “Even worse, when correlations decline it’s usually because U.S. equities are trouncing rest-of-world stocks,” said DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe. With a second Trump administration weeks away, it’s useful
- [IBD Quoting DataTrek's Colas on Bearish Signals](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-quoting-datatreks-colas-on-bearish-signals/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "Nicholas Colas of Datatrek Research says three "usual suspects" and five less common triggers could turn markets bearish. The usual suspects would be a geopolitical shock that pushes oil prices up, a halt in Fed rate cuts and worries about global growth. And the less-likely problems
- [Reuters: "Stunning rally in Big Tech drives Nasdaq to 20,000"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-stunning-rally-in-big-tech-drives-nasdaq-to-20000/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: "The Nasdaq Comp’s latest rally pales in comparison to the late 90s/early 2000 experience, rising more gradually and does not yet look unsustainable as a result," Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note on Wednesday." Full article here on Reuters.
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Fox Business](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-fox-business/): "DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas explains why he's optimistic about the stock market in 2025 on 'Making Money'." Watch the interview here on Fox Business!
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc-tv/): "Nicholas Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss his three Trump trades, how to positions from here, and more." Watch it here on CNBC!
- [Yahoo Finance Quoting DataTrek's Colas on Valuations](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-quoting-datatreks-colas-on-valuations/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: "DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas also addressed why high valuations might not be a reason to stay out of stocks in a note to clients on Tuesday. "As uncomfortable as owning a 22x S&P 500 might be, let’s remember that math is not a useful investment edge,"
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Bloomberg Radio](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-bloomberg-radio-6/): "DataTrek Research co-founder Nick Colas discusses how big-money prediction market bets on the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could impact investors more broadly. Nick speaks with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio." Watch it here on Bloomberg!
- [Using Correlations to Call Turns in NVDA/S&P 500 (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/using-correlations-to-call-turns-in-nvda-sp-500-transcript/): (Published August 14, 2024) DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares one key measure we’ve used to make the right calls on US equities this year, including the recent selloff. One example: S&P 500 sector correlations to the index were abnormally low in mid-July, which told us that investors were too optimistic about US stocks. The pullback since
- [The Compound & Friends: Cut Your Losses, Size up Your Winners](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-compound-friends-cut-your-losses-size-up-your-winners/): On episode 170 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Nick Colas, Co-Founder of DataTrek Research to discuss: the market's reaction to the latest Fed cut, if international stocks are worth the risk, the outlook for 2025, the latest in Tesla, the wisdom of Steve Cohen, and much
- [WDWL with Josh Brown: The Biggest Investing Lessons of 2024](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-with-josh-brown-the-biggest-investing-lessons-of-2024/): On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown is joined by Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, to discuss today's market vs the dot com bubble, U.S. Stocks compared to the rest of the world, top performing S&P financials, ROE machines, and much more! Watch it here on YouTube, and please like and subscribe if
- [Warren Buffett Underperforms US Tech Stocks Over Time](https://datatrekresearch.com/warren-buffett-underperforms-us-tech-stocks-over-time/): In today’s video, we show that the S&P 500 Tech sector (ETF symbol XLK) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have, on average, outperformed Berkshire Hathaway by 4.3-5.0 percentage points over any given year back to 2010. That’s because they leverage disruptive innovation rather than rely on exposure to more traditional industries. BRK sometimes outperforms, but that’s
- [The Most Important Lesson I Learned in B-School](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-most-important-lesson-i-learned-in-b-school/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas goes back to his time at the University of Chicago and shares the most important lesson he learned while getting his MBA. It starts with a famous Harvard Business School case study about a greeting card company and ends with lessons for every trader and investor. Watch it here on our YouTube channel! Please
- [WDWL with Josh Brown: What if This Is the Minsky Moment Right Now?](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-with-josh-brown-what-if-this-is-the-minsky-moment-right-now/): On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown is joined by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, to discuss: bond spreads, investor confidence, the risks of excessive speculation, the U.S. labor market, valuations, and much more! Watch it here on YouTube, and please like and subscribe if you enjoy it! (Published November
- [Station F, Disruption, and Long Run Stock Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/station-f-disruption-and-long-run-stock-returns/): (Published November 18, 2024) In today’s video, we show that the S&P 500 has dramatically outperformed MSCI Europe over the last decade (CAGR of 13.4% vs 5.7%), in large part due to the success of US Big Tech. For Europe to be competitive, it must embrace risk taking and entrepreneurship. Last month we toured Station
- [WDWL with Josh Brown: Here's the Real Reason Treasury Yields Are Rising](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-with-josh-brown-heres-the-real-reason-treasury-yields-are-rising/): On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown is joined by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, to discuss the Election, current market valuations, and the Federal Debt. Watch it here on YouTube, and please like and subscribe if you enjoy it! (Published October 28, 2024)
- [S&P +50% Over the Last 2 Years, So What’s Next?](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-50-over-the-last-2-years-so-whats-next/): (Published October 3, 2024) DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses 2- and 3-year return averages for the S&P 500 and shows why US large caps still look attractive after their +50% gain over the last 2 years. Watch it here on our YouTube channel! Please hit the like and subscribe button if you find it useful, thank you.
- [WDWL with Josh Brown: Did the Fed just blow it?](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-with-josh-brown-did-the-fed-just-blow-it/): On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown is joined by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, to discuss the Election, current market valuations, and the Federal Debt. Watch it here on YouTube, and please like and subscribe if you enjoy it! (Published September 23, 2024)
- [Our Best Investment Hack](https://datatrekresearch.com/our-best-investment-hack/): (Published September 22, 2024) DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares his simple hack to help you avoid long-run investment losers and give you a decent shot at finding great stocks. He gives 8 examples of both good and bad names and explains why they ended up being productive or lousy investments. Watch it here on our YouTube channel! Please
- [WDWL with Josh Brown: "Only One Factor Drives Bitcoin Prices and This Is It"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-with-josh-brown-only-one-factor-drives-bitcoin-prices-and-this-is-it/): On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown is joined by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, to discuss what happened with the carry trade, what to do with an elevated Vix, bitcoin vs gold, and much more! Watch it here on YouTube, and please like and subscribe if you
- [WDWL with Josh Brown: "Surprise" is the Most Powerful Force in the Stock Market](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-surprise-is-the-most-powerful-force-in-the-stock-market/): On this episode of What Did We Learn, Josh Brown is joined by Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, to discuss how the market fares in election years, the seasonality of the Vix, and much more! Watch it here on YouTube, and please like and subscribe if you enjoy it! (Published July
- [Using Correlations to Call Turns in NVDA/S&P 500](https://datatrekresearch.com/using-correlations-to-call-turns-in-nvda-sp-500/): (Published August 14, 2024) DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares one key measure we’ve used to make the right calls on US equities this year, including the recent selloff. One example: S&P 500 sector correlations to the index were abnormally low in mid-July, which told us that investors were too optimistic about US stocks. The pullback
- [WDWL: "Predicting The Next Recession Using Unemployment"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wdwl-predicting-the-next-recession-using-unemployment/): On this episode of What Did We Learn with Josh Brown, here's some of what we discussed: The biggest misconceptions in the market Nvidia and tech overcrowding Energy and oil stocks The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Click here to watch it on YouTube! (Published June 24, 2024)
- [New WDWL: Longest-Running Unsolved Mystery on Wall Street](https://datatrekresearch.com/new-wdwl-longest-running-unsolved-mystery-on-wall-street/): On our latest episode of What Did We Learn with Josh Brown, we discussed: Global stock market new highs and what that means Whether you should "sell in May and go away" Why Wall Street analysts underestimate the quarter but overestimate the year Big Tech's edge over venture-backed startups Click here to watch it on
- [How to Launch Your Career: Jessica’s Journey and Advice (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-to-launch-your-career-jessicas-journey-and-advice-transcript/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares: How she used her unconventional background to start working as an analyst for a global brokerage in NYC at 19 years old Her best career advice for Millennials and Gen Z 3 interview questions and answers young adults should know if they want to work on
- [How to Launch Your Career: Jessica’s Journey and Advice](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-to-launch-your-career-jessicas-journey-and-advice/): In our latest video, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares: How she used her unconventional background to start working as an analyst for a global brokerage in NYC at 19 years old Her best career advice for Millennials and Gen Z 3 interview questions and answers young adults should know if they want to work on
- [Reuters: "Amazon.com may be feeling pressure to join the dividend club"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-amazon-com-may-be-feeling-pressure-to-join-the-dividend-club/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "That has left Amazon and Tesla as the only companies in the group that do not pay a dividend. Microsoft's payouts date back some 20 years, while Apple and Nvidia have been paying dividends for over a decade... “It certainly puts the spotlight on (Amazon) because
- [Fox Business TV Interview w/ DataTrek's Nick Colas](https://datatrekresearch.com/fox-business-tv-interview-w-datatreks-nick-colas/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Fox Business TV discussing corporate earnings, the VIX, and why Tesla's stock imploded. Watch it here!
- [How We Use Google Trends to Beat The Street](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-we-use-google-trends-to-beat-the-street-2/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares how we use Google Trends search volumes to gauge everything from the strength of the US consumer and labor market to retail investor sentiment in real time in our latest YouTube video. That’s because it’s a crowdsourced indicator of broad social attention on a wide range of topics. Watch it here, and
- [How We Use Google Trends to Beat The Street](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-we-use-google-trends-to-beat-the-street/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe shares how we use Google Trends search volumes to gauge everything from the strength of the US consumer and labor market to retail investor sentiment in real time in our latest YouTube video. That’s because it’s a crowdsourced indicator of broad social attention on a wide range of topics. Watch it here,
- [Did the Stock Market Top in March?](https://datatrekresearch.com/did-the-stock-market-top-in-march/): DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe joined Josh Brown for their latest episode of What Did We Learn on The Compound. They discussed energy stocks as a hedge, if US equities peaked in March, why gold is rallying, and how Millennial/Gen Z investors can prepare for a recession. Watch it here!
- [Barron's: "Why the Stock Market Drop Is Far From Over"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-why-the-stock-market-drop-is-far-from-over-2/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Equities are caught between a strong, inflation-enabling US economy and worries of a wider Mideast conflict that creates the preconditions for a recession,” writes DataTrek Co-Founder Nicholas Colas. In a Tuesday note, he points out that the CBOE Volatility Index, which measures implied volatility and is often
- [MarketWatch: "These three things make this bullish Wall Street pro question whether stocks are still worth the risk"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-these-three-things-make-this-bullish-wall-street-pro-question-whether-stocks-are-still-worth-the-risk/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Being long U.S. stocks — especially large-cap U.S. stocks — has paid off for investors over the long term. But at least one stalwart bull is starting to question whether they are still worth it at current levels. And it isn’t just stocks’ relatively high valuations
- [Yahoo Finance: "The 2 'micro' companies powering the small-cap Russell 2000 this year"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-2-micro-companies-powering-the-small-cap-russell-2000-this-year/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The Russell is down well over 3% this year, and without these two stocks’ performance, it would be down around 7% as of Thursday, according to DataTrek. As DataTrek’s co-founder Nicholas Colas put it this week, “The Russell needs a few more meme-ish stocks, not
- [MarketWatch: "S&P 500 heads for worst month since 2022 as bond yields jump on inflation fears"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-sp-500-heads-for-worst-month-since-2022-as-bond-yields-jump-on-inflation-fears/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker estimated as recently as April 16 that real gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.9% during the first quarter. That is “its highest reading in over a month,” said DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas, in a note emailed
- [Reuters: "Worsening US debt outlook seen more in gold and bitcoin than in bonds"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-worsening-us-debt-outlook-seen-more-in-gold-and-bitcoin-than-in-bonds/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "So far, however, several Treasury market indicators show that bonds are not pricing in a worsening fiscal outlook, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. These include 10-year Treasury yields trading well below those on three-month notes. Real 10-year yields, which “reflect all risks other than
- [Barron's: "Why the Stock Market Drop Is Far From Over"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-why-the-stock-market-drop-is-far-from-over/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Industrial metals like copper, he says, benefit not just from the inflationary backdrop but also increased demand from an artificial intelligence revolution. Energy is linked to geopolitics and gets a bit of an AI boost, he adds. DataTrek Reseach Co-Founder Nick Colas also favors energy for those worried
- [Barron's: "Inflation Could Stick Around Much Longer. What to Do About It."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-inflation-could-stick-around-much-longer-what-to-do-about-it/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Reseach Co-Founder Nick Colas also favors energy for those worried about inflation or a geopolitical flare-up spoiling the economy’s recent Goldilocks phase. It is one of the sectors that has reliably worked as a hedge. Plus, accounting for just 5% of the S&P 500, owning a
- [MarketWatch: "Oil prices a chief market fear after Iran attack on Israel"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-oil-prices-a-chief-market-fear-after-iran-attack-on-israel/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "U.S. stocks were attempting a rebound on Monday, after fears over the conflict in the Middle East sparked a flight to safety Friday in U.S. markets. “The Mideast has been a constantly tumultuous part of the world for decades, but the only time that fact affects
- [Barron's: "Most of the Magnificent Seven Look Set for Strong Earnings"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-most-of-the-magnificent-seven-look-set-for-strong-earnings/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Analysts are certainly upbeat about big tech. As DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe notes, all of the Magnificent Seven megacap tech companies except Apple and Tesla have seen consensus expectations jump—not only for the first quarter, but for this year and next as a whole... According to Rabe, over the
- [CNBC: "Costco selling as much as $200 million in gold bars monthly, Wells Fargo estimates"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-costco-selling-as-much-as-200-million-in-gold-bars-monthly-wells-fargo-estimates/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Central banks have been large buyers of gold, especially in Asia, and the run-up in prices this year suggests that while purchases are down in the early part of 2024, they are likely to pick up later, according to DataTrek Research. “The move suggests that many
- [Barron's: "US Stocks Mixed As Markets Await Key Data"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-us-stocks-mixed-as-markets-await-key-data/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek: .... "The rise in US Treasury bond yields reflects shifting expectations on interest rates, but stocks have largely taken things in stride. "Part of this is due to the recent measured, rather than dramatic, increase in yields," said a note from DataTrek Research. "The other is attributable to expectations for
- [When Is The Next Recession?](https://datatrekresearch.com/when-is-the-next-recession-2/): Many institutional investors are concerned about a US recession in the next 12 - 24 months. In our latest YouTube video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas 1) explains why they think the American economy may see a slowdown very soon and 2) discusses various portfolio hedges that can help offset this risk. Watch it here, and please
- [When Is The Next Recession?](https://datatrekresearch.com/when-is-the-next-recession/): Many institutional investors are concerned about a US recession in the next 12 - 24 months. In our latest YouTube video, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas 1) explains why they think the American economy may see a slowdown very soon and 2) discusses various portfolio hedges that can help offset this risk. Watch it here, and please
- [MarketWatch: "Fed-funds futures point to doubts over June rate cut as inflation data looms"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-fed-funds-futures-point-to-doubts-over-june-rate-cut-as-inflation-data-looms/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."Wage growth has eased from a 5.9% peak two years ago, “not including the wonky numbers during the Pandemic Crisis,” according to a note from DataTrek Research emailed on Monday. “It has been moving down by an average of 0.08 percentage points/month over the last 24 months,”
- [Bloomberg: "Tesla’s Market Story Is About Growth. That’s Now in Question"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-teslas-market-story-is-about-growth-thats-now-in-question/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "There is not a lot of visibility on where Tesla’s next leg of growth will be — whether EVs or its other projects,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “If you are going to command a premium multiple you will have to have great earnings
- [Barron's: "Gold and Energy Rallies Are Sending a Message. It’s Not a Good One for Stocks."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-gold-and-energy-rallies-are-sending-a-message-its-not-a-good-one-for-stocks/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Indeed, gold outperformed stocks for the year through Wednesday, with an 11.9% gain versus 9.3% for the S&P 500, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a research note. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, while often cited as a motivation for gold’s rise, have been trimmed
- [MarketWatch: "Gold hits another all-time high as investors take cues from near-record buying by central banks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-gold-hits-another-all-time-high-as-investors-take-cues-from-near-record-buying-by-central-banks/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note Thursday that his company’s positive view on gold stems from the belief that foreign central banks will be “consistent buyers for many years,” even as the pace of purchases has been slowing so far in 2024.
- [Yahoo Finance: "S&P 500, Nasdaq edge higher after Powell says rate cuts coming 'at some point' this year"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-sp-500-nasdaq-edge-higher-after-powell-says-rate-cuts-coming-at-some-point-this-year/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek Research: .... "DataTrek Research looked at the sectors rolling 100-day relative performance compared to the S&P 500 dating back to 2008. The chart reveals Energy is still chasing the S&P 500. "Energy stocks are playing catch up and their history points to further near-term gains," DataTrek co-founders Nicholas Colas and
- [MarketWatch: "Oil, gold and the dollar are surging. Here’s why that could derail the Fed’s rate-cut outlook."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-oil-gold-and-the-dollar-are-surging-heres-why-that-could-derail-the-feds-rate-cut-outlook/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Indeed, the positive correlation between oil prices and energy stocks indicates a “structural shift in oil supply and demand dynamics,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a newsletter dated March 28. The S&P 500 energy sector does not usually move with oil prices. Since
- [Yahoo Finance Interview with DataTrek's Jessica Rabe](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-interview-with-datatreks-jessica-rabe/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe was interviewed about the IPO market's return on Yahoo Finance TV. Watch it here!
- [Yahoo Finance: "Crude oil prices reach highest since October as energy stocks lead market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-crude-oil-prices-reach-highest-since-october-as-energy-stocks-lead-market/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Energy stocks are playing catch up and their history points to further near-term gains," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a client note on Tuesday. "Oil prices have stabilized, a necessary precondition to sector outperformance. And, should we see a geopolitically-driven oil price
- [Bloomberg: "Tesla’s $350 Billion Stock Slump Shreds Investor Expectations"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-teslas-350-billion-stock-slump-shreds-investor-expectations-2/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Delivery estimates have been cut a lot, and that has really killed investor confidence in the name. It will be hard to spin the first-quarter numbers positively, even if they modestly beat expectations,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Valuations are often tied to a
- [Barron's: "Dividend Stocks Made a Comeback in March. Treasury Yields Dictate the Next Move."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-dividend-stocks-made-a-comeback-in-march-treasury-yields-dictate-the-next-move/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "In turn, dividend ETFs’ rally in March was a result of the 10-year Treasury yield staying largely fixed. It ended Thursday at 4.192%, just a few basis points away from 4.251% at the start of the month. “This [dividend] investment style has been deeply out of
- [MarketWatch: "Nvidia’s stock snaps a record weekly winning streak but a monthly streak still lives"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-nvidias-stock-snaps-a-record-weekly-winning-streak-but-a-monthly-streak-still-lives/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, noted that the “Magnificent Seven” wasn’t the main driver of the S&P 500’s 3.1% gain in March, as the tech giant contributed 23% of the index’s advance while they had a combined index weighting of 29%. But despite last week’s
- [US Stocks Are Not In A Bubble… Yet (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-stocks-are-not-in-a-bubble-yet-transcript/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares why we don’t think US equities are in a bubble, and the 3 signs that can help spot one in the latest video on our YouTube channel. He also explains how a stock bubble could develop later this year and into 2025. Watch it here, and please hit the like and
- [US Stocks Are Not In A Bubble… Yet](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-stocks-are-not-in-a-bubble-yet/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares why we don’t think US equities are in a bubble, and the 3 signs that can help spot one in the latest video on our YouTube channel. He also explains how a stock bubble could develop later this year and into 2025. Watch it here, and please hit the like and subscribe
- [Make Investing Your Side Hustle](https://datatrekresearch.com/make-investing-your-side-hustle/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses how to make investing your side hustle in the latest video on our YouTube channel. Many of her peers want other sources of revenue to supplement their salaries and create wealth over the long run. Investing is one way they’re interested in making their money work for them instead of
- [Make Investing Your Side Hustle (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/make-investing-your-side-hustle-transcript/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses how to make investing your side hustle in the latest video on our YouTube channel. Many of her peers want other sources of revenue to supplement their salaries and create wealth over the long run. Investing is one way they’re interested in making their money work for them instead of
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC's Squawk Box](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbcs-squawk-box/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC's Squawk Box with Joe Kernen and Becky Quick. They discussed the Fed's latest rate decision, investor sentiment and Nick's market outlook. Watch it here!
- [Barron's: "IPOs Are Back. What They Say About a Stock Market Bubble."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-ipos-are-back-what-they-say-about-a-stock-market-bubble/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Not so, says DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe, who argues that the recent success of Reddit and Astera may instead simply mark the fact that “the IPO window is finally starting to open".... ....Still, the volume of IPOs is far from bubblicious. Even if every quarter of
- [Bloomberg: "Tesla’s $350 Billion Stock Slump Shreds Investor Expectations"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-teslas-350-billion-stock-slump-shreds-investor-expectations/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Delivery estimates have been cut a lot, and that has really killed investor confidence in the name. It will be hard to spin the first-quarter numbers positively, even if they modestly beat expectations,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Valuations are often tied to a
- [YT Video: Avoid This Terrible Investing Strategy](https://datatrekresearch.com/yt-video-avoid-this-terrible-investing-strategy/): DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe just filmed the second video of their new series with Josh Brown on his YouTube platform, The Compound. They discuss why EM stocks don't work, the S&P's recent unusual rally, why the equal weight S&P 500 is a bad investment approach, and a potential Starlink IPO. Watch it here!
- [Crain's NY: "Crain's 20 In Their 20s showed promise at a young age. They're living up to the hype"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-crains-20-in-their-20s-showed-promise-at-a-young-age-theyre-living-up-to-the-hype/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business highlighting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Many past honorees were recognized for starting their own business ventures at a young age. Take Anam Lakhani and Eve Halimi, who joined the ranks of the 2022 class for founding Gen Z-targeted investing platform Alinea. Or take Jessica Rabe, who was honored in 2020 for co-founding DataTrek
- [MarketWatch: "Why earnings growth, not the Fed’s interest-rate policy, is driving U.S. stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-why-earnings-growth-not-the-feds-interest-rate-policy-is-driving-u-s-stocks/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Corporate earnings growth matters more to stock prices than the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy over the longer run, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said Monday in a client note. U.S. stocks have “entirely” ignored structurally higher Fed-funds rates since 2019 and moved almost exactly in
- [CNBC: "Nvidia’s terrible Friday gives traders a preview of what a momentum unwind would look like"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-nvidias-terrible-friday-gives-traders-a-preview-of-what-a-momentum-unwind-would-look-like/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The tricky part is sorting out how this comfortable macro moment has been priced to produce future returns. In most respects the market is behaving in “mid-cycle” fashion. As Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research has said, these are periods when markets are generally stable, up-trending
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas' Interview on Tesla](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-interview-on-tesla/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was interviewed about Tesla on the Brighter with Herbert YouTube channel. Nick explained why Tesla should do a capital raise of between $10-15 Billion dollars. Watch it here!
- [Barron's: "Stocks Are Falling Ahead of Powell Testimony"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-stocks-are-falling-ahead-of-powell-testimony/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "While stock prices are not part of the Fed’s official mandate, we do wonder if he will try to dampen the market’s recent enthusiasm by delivering a more hawkish than expected message,” writes Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Colas also points out that the Atlanta
- [Business Insider: "Billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn't think the stock market is in a 'full-on bubble'"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-doesnt-think-the-stock-market-is-in-a-full-on-bubble/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek Research: .... "In a note last week, DataTrek Research cofounders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe pointed to the S&P 500's 31% three-year gain on a price return basis, which is squarely below the typical returns indicative of a bubble forming ahead of a crash. "We are nowhere near that level
- [Barron's: "Nvidia Stock’s Rally Is Amazing, but Not Extraordinary"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-nvidia-stocks-rally-is-amazing-but-not-extraordinary/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "But Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, argues that this is neither unusual nor a reason for concern. “This is not an anomaly, let alone a reason to be bearish,” Colas wrote. “Rather, it is exactly how markets work. The wisdom of crowds usually gets things
- [MarketWatch: "This biotech ETF sees ‘breakout’ while U.S. small-cap technology stocks lag"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-this-biotech-etf-sees-breakout-while-u-s-small-cap-technology-stocks-lag/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Small-cap stocks in information technology usually outperform small-cap equities overall, but they have “done the opposite by a statistically significant amount over the last 100 days,” said Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note emailed Thursday. That may mean a shift is coming. “History
- [MarketWatch: "Are U.S. stocks in a bubble? History says no."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-are-u-s-stocks-in-a-bubble-history-says-no/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek Research: ... "This means that if history is any guide, investors can take “bubble risk” off the table, DataTrek co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe said in a report shared with MarketWatch on Tuesday. Although a more modest pullback isn’t out of the question, the DataTrek team said they continue
- [Business Insider: "Wall Street's favorite recession gauge has been flashing for 16 months, but the other key ingredient of a downturn is nowhere to be seen"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-wall-streets-favorite-recession-gauge-has-been-flashing-for-16-months-but-the-other-key-ingredient-of-a-downturn-is-nowhere-to-be-seen/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek Research: .... "But the classic recession indicator is only one half of the recipe needed for a slowdown, and the other component is still missing, DataTrek Research wrote in a note this week. The firm pointed out that the spread between the 10-year and three-month treasury yields has been
- [VC Boom/Bust, And Why Stock Investors Should Care (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/vc-boom-bust-and-why-stock-investors-should-care-transcript/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe explains the relationship between venture capital and public equity markets. The speculative craze of 2021 is over in both the VC community and stocks. Until there’s more clarity on the macro front and a successful batch of venture-backed IPOs, VC funding will likely struggle to reaccelerate. The sooner this happens, the better
- [VC Boom/Bust, And Why Stock Investors Should Care](https://datatrekresearch.com/vc-boom-bust-and-why-stock-investors-should-care/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe explains the relationship between venture capital and public equity markets. The speculative craze of 2021 is over in both the VC community and stocks. Until there’s more clarity on the macro front and a successful batch of venture-backed IPOs, VC funding will likely struggle to reaccelerate. The sooner this happens, the
- [Business Insider: "The volatility that made bitcoin so appealing is dwindling"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-volatility-that-made-bitcoin-so-appealing-is-dwindling/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek Research: .... "DataTrek Research cofounders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe highlighted in a Monday note that bitcoin's long-run volatility is more than triple that of the S&P 500, which typically sees about 1% daily price moves in either direction. Since September 2022, bitcoin's volatility has been below its long-term
- [MarketWatch: "Do stock-market investors care more about Nvidia than the Fed? Inflation data will provide a test."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-sp-500-has-room-to-rally-before-fed-rate-cut-according-to-this-stock-playbook/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The S&P 500 was up 6.7% for the year to date through Thursday, with just five trading days accounting for that gain, noted Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note. That includes Thursday’s 2.1% rise, driven by Nvidia’s earnings, and four days with gains
- [MarketWatch: "Nvidia’s stock could rise above $600 — despite signs it’s already overbought"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-nvidias-stock-could-rise-above-600-despite-signs-its-already-overbought/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "And as DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe wrote, even though Nvidia’s stock is at an all-time high, it has “yet to reach statistically significant overbought levels.” As the above RSI chart shows, some previous similarly high readings may have prompted brief pauses in the stock’s rally,
- [Investment Prepping 101 (Transcript)](https://datatrekresearch.com/investment-prepping-101-transcript/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas gives his 3 key pieces of advice for disaster planning in both real life and investing in our latest YouTube video. He shares what’s in his “go bag” in the event of a crisis and how those items relate to the strategies he uses to get through a shock in capital markets.
- [Investment Prepping 101](https://datatrekresearch.com/investment-prepping-101/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas gives his 3 key pieces of advice for disaster planning in both real life and investing in our latest YouTube video. He shares what’s in his “go bag” in the event of a crisis and how those items relate to the strategies he uses to get through a shock in capital
- [What Did We Learn? Josh Brown Interviews Nick and Jessica](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-did-we-learn-video-with-josh-brown/): DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe joined Josh Brown to discuss the key takeaways from earnings season, the recent high correlation between stocks and long-term Treasury bonds and how Super Micro Computer is driving the small cap stock index higher. Watch it here on YouTube!
- [DataTrek 2024 Investment Outlook Survey Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatrek-2024-investment-outlook-survey-results/): We shared the results to our recent DataTrek 2024 Investment Outlook Survey in the latest video on our YouTube channel. Well over 500 people took our survey, the vast majority from our own readership base which is mostly investment professionals. Overall, most survey respondents are bullish on US equities this year and Tech more specifically.
- [DataTrek 2024 Outlook Survey: Full Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatrek-2024-outlook-survey-full-results/): For today’s report we have the findings of our DataTrek 2024 Outlook Survey. Thanks to everyone who participated! Before we get into the numbers, a few descriptive points: We had a total of 538 responses. Each of the 11 questions required a single answer. Where appropriate, we randomized possible responses. The vast majority (97 percent) of
- [Millennial/Gen Z Rookie Investor Mistakes](https://datatrekresearch.com/millennial-gen-z-rookie-investor-mistakes/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses the 7 rookie investment mistakes she sees her millennial peers or younger cohorts making in our latest YouTube video. She covers everything from investing in stocks, virtual currencies and options to debunking myths like needing lots of money to invest or feeling like you missed out on investment opportunities from
- [Millennial/Gen Z Rookie Investor Mistakes](https://datatrekresearch.com/millennial-gen-z-rookie-investor-mistakes-2/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe discusses the 7 rookie investment mistakes she sees her millennial peers or younger cohorts making in our latest YouTube video. She covers everything from investing in stocks, virtual currencies and options to debunking myths like needing lots of money to invest or feeling like you missed out on investment opportunities from seeing
- [US Labor Market: Too Resilient for Rate Cuts](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-labor-market-too-resilient-for-rate-cuts-2/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe takes a deep dive into the current state of the US labor market in our latest YouTube Video, given that it is a critical driver of future Federal Reserve monetary policy, domestic economic growth, and corporate profits. She uses some unconventional and more detailed metrics, from Google Trends to Quits and Job
- [US Labor Market: Too Resilient for Rate Cuts](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-labor-market-too-resilient-for-rate-cuts/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe takes a deep dive into the current state of the US labor market in our latest YouTube Video, given that it is a critical driver of future Federal Reserve monetary policy, domestic economic growth, and corporate profits. She uses some unconventional and more detailed metrics, from Google Trends to Quits and
- [Business Insider: "Here's how much Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has lagged tech stocks over the last 20 years"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-heres-how-much-warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-has-lagged-tech-stocks-over-the-last-20-years/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "If you had put $10,000 in Berkshire Hathaway stock 20 years ago, you would have about $65,300 today. If you had put that same money in the Nasdaq, you would have $110,700. That's according to an analysis by Jessica Rabe at market research firm DataTrek
- [Skydiving Lessons for Investors](https://datatrekresearch.com/skydiving-lessons-for-investors-2/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe is a licensed skydiver, so she discusses some of the important lessons she's learned from the sport that apply to investing in our latest video on our YouTube channel. No matter one’s level of experience, both disciplines are process-driven and have small margins for error. Both also force you to confront natural
- [Skydiving Lessons for Investors](https://datatrekresearch.com/skydiving-lessons-for-investors/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe is a licensed skydiver, so she discusses some of the important lessons she's learned from the sport that apply to investing in our latest video on our YouTube channel. No matter one’s level of experience, both disciplines are process-driven and have small margins for error. Both also force you to confront
- [Barron's: "The Stock Market Had a Wonderful Thanksgiving. Now It’s Time to Celebrate Christmas."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-stock-market-had-a-wonderful-thanksgiving-now-its-time-to-celebrate-christmas/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "But there’s more to a potential rally than purely technical matters. Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, points to the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. The central bank last raised interest rates in July, and the market is coming around to the idea that it
- [Business Insider: "ETFs that track meme stocks have been surging, as 'animal spirits' return to markets](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-etfs-that-track-meme-stocks-have-been-surging-as-animal-spirits-return-to-markets/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "In a note on Tuesday, DataTrek Research cofounders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe broke down the recent performance of several exchange traded funds with exposure to popular meme stocks, including the Roundhill MEME ETF (MEME), the Robotics & AI ETF (BOTZ), and iShares Russell 2000
- [MarketWatch: "The Fed hasn’t driven the U.S. stock-market rally this year. AI has."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-fed-hasnt-driven-the-u-s-stock-market-rally-this-year-ai-has/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The dominant force behind the rally in U.S. stocks this year is generative artificial intelligence and not the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions and corporate earnings, according to DataTrek Research... ... The rally has mostly been driven by a few megacap tech stocks, according to Nicholas Colas,
- [Business Insider: "CHART OF THE DAY: Recession fears appear to be cooling among US companies"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-chart-of-the-day-recession-fears-appear-to-be-cooling-among-us-companies/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Our chart of the day comes from DataTrek Research, which notes that mentions of certain economic buzzwords are down on company earnings calls, signaling corporations' feelings about the economy heading into year-end. As disinflation continues at a steady clip and the labor market shows signs of loosening,
- [Business Insider: "History shows the S&P 500 sees double-digit growth the year after the Fed is done hiking rates"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-history-shows-the-sp-500-sees-double-digit-growth-the-year-after-the-fed-is-done-hiking-rates/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Markets are betting on the fact that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are over. If that's the case, it could mean the S&P 500 can swing up by double-digits in the next year. That's because rate "tops" in history have typically been followed by strong gains for
- [MarketWatch: "This closely watched stock-market indicator shows the current rally is poised to extend through year end"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-this-closely-watched-stock-market-indicator-shows-the-current-rally-is-poised-to-extend-through-year-end/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The correlations between some sectors in the large-cap S&P 500 and the major index are consistently hovering around their five-year average level, which is sending some positive signals as investors “see clear skies ahead” and are willing to pick and choose between individual sectors and stocks,
- [Business Insider: "A key historical indicator says the latest stock market rally is poised to push on through the end of the year"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-a-key-historical-indicator-says-the-latest-stock-market-rally-is-poised-to-push-on-through-the-end-of-the-year/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder .... "The stock market is in the midst of a strong November rally, and according to DataTrek Research, the gains could last through year-end thanks to a key historical trend. In a Tuesday note, the firm's co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe point to US large-cap sector correlations as
- [Barron's: "Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Is on a Tear, With ‘Supercharged Tech Returns’"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-is-on-a-tear-with-supercharged-tech-returns/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF has significantly outperformed the broader market lately, thanks to robust gains in tech stocks. DataTrek Research says the exchange-traded fund’s top holdings are worth further research and consideration for investors betting on a year-end rally. Since Oct. 27, the ARK Innovation ETF (ticker: ARKK) has
- [CNBC: "Why market timing doesn’t work: S&P 500 is up 14% this year, but just 8 days explain the gains"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-why-market-timing-doesnt-work-sp-500-is-up-14-this-year-but-just-8-days-explain-the-gains/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas at DataTrek notes that there have only been 11 more up days than down days this year (113 up, 102 down) and yet the S&P 500 is higher by 14% year to date. How to explain that the S&P is up 14% but the
- [Barron's: "Big Tech Has Surged. Why It Isn’t Just AI Hype."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-big-tech-has-surged-why-it-isnt-just-ai-hype/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ... "On Wednesday, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe took a look at the so-called Magnificent Seven big tech firms— Apple, Amazon, Google parent Alphabet, Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. These collectively account for nearly 28% of total market capitalization of the S&P 500, ranging from 7% for Apple alone, to 1.8% for Meta... Little wonder then that their
- [MarketWatch: "Could rising oil prices tip the U.S. into a recession? Here’s why investors are nowhere near having to worry about it"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-could-rising-oil-prices-tip-the-u-s-into-a-recession-heres-why-investors-are-nowhere-near-having-to-worry-about-it/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "History shows that surging energy costs usually play a role in tipping the U.S. into recession. When oil prices doubled in September 1990, February 2000, and June 2008, the economy was either in a recession or would shortly be in one, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of
- [MarketWatch: "What the ‘mysterious shrinking’ of Wall Street’s fear gauge means for stocks, according to DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-what-the-mysterious-shrinking-of-wall-streets-fear-gauge-means-for-stocks-according-to-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge has been subdued this year, in a “mysterious shrinking” pattern, that’s a bullish signal for equities, according to DataTrek Research. Declines for the Cboe Volatility Index VIX fear gauge come despite continued worries over inflation and elevated interest rates. “We’ve been saying for
- [CNN Business: "Gas is rapidly approaching $6 in one state"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnn-business-gas-is-rapidly-approaching-6-in-one-state/): Excerpt from CNN Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The good news is that energy prices are not close to levels where they would pose an immediate risk to the US economy. “History says we are nowhere near having to worry about rising oil prices tipping the US economy into a recession,” Nicholas Colas,
- [Business Insider: "The stock market's fear gauge just signaled the bull market is alive and well"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-stock-markets-fear-gauge-just-signaled-the-bull-market-is-alive-and-well/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The bull market in stocks is alive and well based on the stock market's fear gauge, according to a Monday note from DataTrek Research. DataTrek highlighted that the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, closed at a post-pandemic low of 12.8 on Thursday, representing its second
- [Barron's: "Tesla Should Sell Stock to Raise Capital to Pressure EV Rivals, Says Strategist"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-tesla-should-sell-stock-to-raise-capital-to-pressure-ev-rivals-says-strategist/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "Tesla worked hard over the years to become a profitable maker of electric vehicles. Now one analyst thinks it needs more capital, and should issue more stock to help extend its lead over the EV competition. “If I were advising Tesla (ticker: TSLA), I would recommend an equity
- [MarketWatch: "S&P 500 sector correlations are low, a welcome sign for 2023 bull market, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-sp-500-sector-correlations-are-low-a-welcome-sign-for-2023-bull-market-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "U.S. stocks remain in a strong bull market despite recent choppiness, as the correlations between 11 S&P 500 sectors and the major index are sending some positive signs, according to DataTrek Research. The S&P 500’s sector correlations to the large-cap index have been below the average
- [CNBC: "Stocks notch back-to-back wins Monday, Nasdaq pops 1% as tech shares rebound"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-stocks-notch-back-to-back-wins-monday-nasdaq-pops-1-as-tech-shares-rebound/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Late last week, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas argued that expectations of future volatility may gather force due to lackluster corporate profits away from tech leaders, rising bond yields, the Fed’s “higher for longer” rates messaging and declines in smallcap and international stocks in August".... Full article
- [DataTrek's Jessica Rabe on Bloomberg Radio](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-jessica-rabe-on-bloomberg-radio/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe was on Bloomberg Radio discussing the lessons she's learned from solo skydiving and how they apply to investing. You can listen to it here starting at the 28:00 minute mark on Bloomberg.
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on The Compound & Friends](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-the-compound-friends/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was back on The Compound and Friends podcast with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick. They discussed everything from corporate earnings and interest rates to the future of the automotive industry and his time working directly for Steve Cohen. Watch it here on YouTube!
- [CNBC: "Warning signs for at least a near-term stock pullback are building"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-warning-signs-for-at-least-a-near-term-stock-pullback-are-building/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Those moves come at a time when other signs are mounting for a potential modest pullback, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Colas advised investors to watch the Cboe Volatility Index for clues about where the market is heading in the near term. The VIX is
- [MarketWatch: "Pressure on consumers from higher interest rates is the most since the financial crisis, economist says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-pressure-on-consumers-from-higher-interest-rates-is-the-most-since-the-financial-crisis-economist-says/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Jessica Rabe, co-fonder of DataTrek, noted that the latest Beige Book contained 15 references to recession, up from three in the July report, and that most districts reported higher delinquencies on consumer credit lines. “[T]he Fed’s latest Beige Book suggests the U.S. economy is slowing and
- [WSJ: "Falling Profit Forecasts Are Weighing on Tech Stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-falling-profit-forecasts-are-weighing-on-tech-stocks/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Some of the big tech stocks that pulled the market higher this year have lagged in recent weeks. That is partly because analysts have been cutting their earnings estimates for many of the big tech companies, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek
- [Why We’re Bullish on Gold](https://datatrekresearch.com/why-were-bullish-on-gold-2/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares his outlook on gold in the latest video on our YouTube channel. This discussion includes the process behind how he values the yellow metal, its relationship to equities and why he’s bullish. You can watch it here, and read the transcript from the video below: Transcript: Hi, Nicholas, from DataTrek here. And
- [Why We’re Bullish on Gold](https://datatrekresearch.com/why-were-bullish-on-gold/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares his outlook on gold in the latest video on our YouTube channel. This discussion includes the process behind how he values the yellow metal, its relationship to equities and why he’s bullish. Watch it here, and please hit the like and subscribe button if you enjoy the video!
- [Forbes: "Bull Market Rally: How Long Can It Last?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/forbes-bull-market-rally-how-long-can-it-last/): Excerpt from Forbes quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas says an end to the Fed tightening cycle will be good news for the stock market, but investors must also ask themselves what the next positive catalyst for the S&P 500 will be. “The most logical answer is continued operating leverage
- [Bloomberg: "VinFast’s Stock Surge Is a ‘Coin Toss’ for Investors"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-vinfasts-stock-surge-is-a-coin-toss-for-investors/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Boasting a higher market capitalization than General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. put together, loss-making VinFast Auto Ltd. raises a familiar question for EV investors: how long can it hold its stellar gains. Wild swings since its first day of trading as a public company
- [CNBC: "Powell’s pivotal speech Friday could see a marked shift from what he’s done in the past"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-powells-pivotal-speech-friday-could-see-a-marked-shift-from-what-hes-done-in-the-past/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek: .... "Despite the anticipation for a circumspect Powell, markets Thursday braced for an unpleasant surprise, with stocks selling off and Treasury yields climbing. Last year’s speech also featured downbeat anticipation and a sour reception, with the S&P 500off 2% in the five trading days before the speech and down 5.5%
- [CNBC: "Here’s more evidence that it’s really hard to make money picking stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-heres-more-evidence-that-its-really-hard-to-make-money-picking-stocks/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, also reviewed the paper and came to the same conclusion: “The truth is a handful of truly stellar companies generate persistently strong returns over a long period of time. Those create all the value and are the reason equities generate
- [CNBC: "The Fed’s focus on ‘real’ rates is what investors should be watching"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-the-feds-focus-on-real-rates-is-what-investors-should-be-watching/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The market is taking the Fed’s hawkishness as a signal about their views on long run real interest rates, not just where nominal Fed Funds have to go this year and next,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in his market note Wednesday evening. “Real
- [MarketWatch: "Apple only Big Tech stock ‘really hitting’ the S&P 500 as ‘little’ about August’s market slump appears worrisome, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-apple-only-big-tech-stock-really-hitting-the-sp-500-as-little-about-augusts-market-slump-appears-worrisome-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "U.S. stocks have been rattled in August by a rise in real interest rates and bond-market volatility, yet “very little about this selloff strikes us as fundamentally worrisome,” according to DataTrek Research. Real yields, which are adjusted for inflation, of more than 2% on 10-year Treasurys
- [Barron's: "Bond Yields Are the Highest in a Decade. 4 Reasons Behind the Surge."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-bond-yields-are-the-highest-in-a-decade-4-reasons-behind-the-surge/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The Fed’s effort to reduce its balance sheet is also a factor, as it has the same effect as an increase interest rates. The central bank has a goal of reducing its Treasury and agency debt holdings by $95 billion a month, although it has largely fallen short
- [Business Insider: "Markets should brace for a turbulent few weeks as slow motion rate shock continues, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-markets-should-brace-for-a-turbulent-few-weeks-as-slow-motion-rate-shock-continues-datatrek-says-2/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "By refocusing the market's attention on stubbornly high inflation, the Fed is implicitly telling us that they are comfortable keeping their current pace of balance sheet reduction for quite some time," DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a note on Thursday. The Fed is unlikely
- [MarketWatch: "U.S. stocks may bounce this week, but summer selloff is only halfway done, analysts warn"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-u-s-stocks-may-bounce-this-week-but-summer-selloff-is-only-halfway-done-analysts-warn/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."Nick Colas of DataTrek pointed out in a Monday research note that “at 1.26 percentage points over Treasurys for investment-grade corporates and 3.95 points for high-yield bonds,” spreads for corporate bonds remain “remarkably low"... That suggests that investors are simply reining in equity valuations from levels considered
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Barron's Live](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-barrons-live/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was interviewed today on Barron's Live podcast to discuss which parts of the stock market look attractive and if there's value in bonds. The episode is titled "Managing Your Money: Finding Bargains in Today's Market". You can listen to it here on Barron's, which also includes links to hear it on
- [Business Insider: "Markets should brace for a turbulent few weeks as slow motion rate shock continues, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-markets-should-brace-for-a-turbulent-few-weeks-as-slow-motion-rate-shock-continues-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... ""By refocusing the market's attention on stubbornly high inflation, the Fed is implicitly telling us that they are comfortable keeping their current pace of balance sheet reduction for quite some time," DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a note on Thursday. The Fed is unlikely
- [MarketWatch: "A sign of ‘excessive market confidence’ could spell trouble for stocks over next 2 months"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-a-sign-of-excessive-market-confidence-could-spell-trouble-for-stocks-over-next-2-months/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "U.S. stocks may face a challenging time in the next two months, as the correlations between the S&P 500 sector indexes and the main index are extremely low, according to a report Tuesday by Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. The S&P 500 SPX’s sector correlations to the
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc-3/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC today discussing upcoming retail earnings and what the bond market is currently telling us. Watch it here on CNBC!
- [The BEST Way to Value Tesla](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-best-way-to-value-tesla/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas discusses 3 ways to value Tesla in our latest YouTube video: • The wrong way, but often used: price earnings multiples• The better way: valuing now versus the future• The BEST way: think of TSLA as an option on autonomous vehicles, not a stock Nick started his career analyzing auto stocks
- [Disruptive Innovation: The Most Misunderstood Investment Concept](https://datatrekresearch.com/disruptive-innovation-the-most-misunderstood-investment-concept/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas discusses the theory of disruptive innovation in our latest YouTube video, the most misunderstood concept in investing today. It’s so important that this is the first of 2 videos we’ll post on the topic. Why? Getting it right matters more than any other single thing for long-term investors. Nick describes the
- [Use the VIX to Invest/Trade Smarter](https://datatrekresearch.com/use-the-vix-to-invest-trade-smarter/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares his thoughts on how to use the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, in our latest YouTube video. He’s been trading options and analyzing the VIX since the late 1990s. In fact, some of his best wins were in options while working for Steve Cohen at the old
- [Our 3 Cardinal Rules of Investing!](https://datatrekresearch.com/our-3-cardinal-rules-of-investing/): In the first video on our new YouTube channel, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas shares his “3 Cardinal Rules of Investing” based on what he’s learned during his +30 years on Wall Street, including when he worked directly with Steve Cohen at SAC as a PM/Analyst. They touch on everything from technical and fundamental analysis to
- [MarketWatch: "A stumbling stock market faces a crucial summer test. Here’s what will decide the bull’s fate."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-a-stumbling-stock-market-faces-a-crucial-summer-test-heres-what-will-decide-the-bulls-fate/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Going back to 1990, the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, has seen its yearly peak most often in January (six times), followed by August and October at five times each, noted Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note last week. By that measure,
- [Barron's: "Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet Were the Standouts in Tech Earnings. Here’s Why."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-amazon-meta-and-alphabet-were-the-standouts-in-tech-earnings-heres-why/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The U.S.’s biggest technology companies had a mixed earnings season as continued excitement over artificial intelligence was balanced against fears about slower consumer spending. Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet came out strongest, according to DataTrek Research. Following the reports, Wall Street analysts raised their forecasts for
- [Barron's: "Dow Closed Up 400 Points. The Fear Gauge Is Cooling."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-dow-closed-up-400-points-the-fear-gauge-is-cooling/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, told Barron's that with stocks bouncing back from last week’s sell-off, he thinks it’s worth noting that the S&P 500 was outpacing the Nasdaq Composite. “The Nasdaq’s had a very strong run, obviously, and the S&P has lagged, relatively speaking,” Colas says.
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc-2/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on our good friends' Josh Brown and Mike Santoli's new show on CNBC last Friday. They discussed how most equities don't even deliver T-bill returns over the long run, and how just 2.4% of stocks around the world are responsible for all the gains in global equities from 1990 to 2020.
- [Bloomberg: "Strategist Short Squeeze Is On. Investors Beware."](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-strategist-short-squeeze-is-on-investors-beware/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Here’s how DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas (a former sell-side stock analyst covering autos) described the challenges of projecting stock prices in a very sage and candid research note last week: Estimating earnings to within +5/-5 percent is typically not all that difficult, but valuing
- [MarketWatch: "Nasdaq rebalancing is coming, and it’s boosting interest in Friday’s $2.3 trillion option expiration"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-nasdaq-rebalancing-is-coming-and-its-boosting-interest-in-fridays-2-3-trillion-option-expiration/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "If the rally in Big Tech stocks does falter, history suggests it won’t be because of the rebalancing. Here’s more on that from Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, who discussed the topic in commentary emailed to MarketWatch on Wednesday. “…[T]here is the natural inclination to
- [Investor's Business Daily: "11 Little-Known Major Stocks Blow Away The 'Magnificent Seven'"](https://datatrekresearch.com/investors-business-daily-11-little-known-major-stocks-blow-away-the-magnificent-seven/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Cyclical sectors, which do best when the economy is strong, are driving much of small stocks' outperformance in the quarter, says Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research. That includes stocks in the energy, financial and materials sectors, he says. "When small cap cyclicals start to
- [Barron's: "The Fed Could End the Stock Market’s Rally Anytime It Wants To"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-fed-could-end-the-stock-markets-rally-anytime-it-wants-to/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "That’s one reason Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, remains optimistic, despite signs that Big Tech, the driver of this year’s rally, may be losing momentum. With the S&P 500 up so much this year, some investors may opt to take profits and sit out the
- [Business Insider: "The Dow's rally is broadening as first-half laggards catch up"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-dows-rally-is-broadening-as-first-half-laggards-catch-up/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."Six names have made up 98% of its advance since June, according to DataTrek: Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth, Boeing, Home Depot, Amgen, and Salesforce. Through the first half of the year, Goldman, UnitedHealth, and Amgen were among the index's worst performers. The first two are the two highest-weighted stocks in the index.
- [Barron's: "Apple Stock Deserves the Big Selloff. The iPhone 15 Needs to Come to the Rescue."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-apple-stock-deserves-the-big-selloff-the-iphone-15-needs-to-come-to-the-rescue/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Microsoft (MSFT) knows Apple’s pain. Its product sales fell 6.1% in the latest quarter, wrote DataTrek Research’s co-founder Nicholas Colas on Monday. But Microsoft MSFT +0.71% made up the loss with growth in its services, up 16% from a year ago. Apple showed 8.2% growth in services. For Apple, the heat
- [MarketWatch: "U.S. corporate bonds flash ‘green light’ for further stock-market gains as equities soar in 2023"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-u-s-corporate-bonds-flash-green-light-for-further-stock-market-gains-as-equities-soar-in-2023/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The bond market is expressing confidence in company cash flows, flashing a sign of support for the stock market’s rally, according to DataTrek Research. “U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to tighten and are now essentially the same as 2017–2019,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research,
- [USA Today: "Best AI stocks in 2023 for performance"](https://datatrekresearch.com/usa-today-best-ai-stocks-in-2023-for-performance/): Excerpt from USA Today quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The hype surrounding AI technology has raised awareness of AI stocks and generated big returns for the AI stocks mentioned in this list. However, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe says additional upside for these stocks hinges on their ability to improve upon their current offerings
- [Business Insider: "Despite huge rally in tech stocks, VC investors aren't sure markets are stable and have slashed spending"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-despite-huge-rally-in-tech-stocks-vc-investors-arent-sure-markets-are-stable-and-have-slashed-spending/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "In a separate note, DataTrek Research cofounder Jessica Rabe attributed the decline to the uncertain macroeconomic environment and dampened investor appetite, except for AI. "As much as public tech companies have rallied this year, VC investors aren't yet convinced equity markets will remain stable. Whether
- [MarketWatch: "Stock-market bubble trouble? Check out the 3-year view on Nasdaq, S&P 500 returns."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-stock-market-bubble-trouble-check-out-the-3-year-view-on-nasdaq-sp-500-returns/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "A 2023 stock-market rally led by megacap tech names is stirring fears another bubble may be forming as the Nasdaq Composite index significantly outpaces strong gains for the S&P 500. But a longer term look at the tape indicates the Nasdaq may merely be playing catch-up
- [USA Today: "Best bank stocks in August 2023"](https://datatrekresearch.com/usa-today-best-bank-stocks-in-august-2023/): Excerpt from USA Today quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The U.S. banking crisis weighed on bank stocks in 2023, but it may have also created opportunities for investors to scoop up high-quality bank stocks at a valuation discount. “With earnings expectations now stable and valuations still at a deep discount to the overall U.S.
- [Business Insider: "'Rich Dad Poor Dad' author Robert Kiyosaki warns of a market 'crash landing' after US credit rating gets slashed"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-rich-dad-poor-dad-author-robert-kiyosaki-warns-of-a-market-crash-landing-after-us-credit-rating-gets-slashed/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Many economists, meanwhile, are warming to the idea that the US will see a soft landing of its economy. Though Fitch's downgrade shocked investors, the move didn't reveal anything that investors didn't already know about the economy, experts say, meaning the sell-off could be more
- [MarketWatch: "BofA holds No. 1 position in corporate bond underwriting, with Wells Fargo moving up to No. 2 as the overall pie shrinks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-bofa-holds-no-1-position-in-corporate-bond-underwriting-with-wells-fargo-moving-up-to-no-2-as-the-overall-pie-shrinks/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "However, some encouraging signs have surfaced as spreads on high-yield corporate bonds over comparable Treasurys have tightened in recent weeks. “U.S. corporate bond spreads continue to tighten and are now essentially the same as 2017–2019,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research".... Full article here on
- [CNBC: "This year’s big rally has come to only a few days, again challenging market-timers"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-this-years-big-rally-has-come-to-only-a-few-days-again-challenging-market-timers/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."Nearly all the S&P 500′s 18.1% gain this year can be traced to 10 days, all of which have coalesced around three general themes, according to a DataTrek Research analysis. “If 2023 to date is all some sort of huge head fake, the burden of proof for contrarian
- [CNBC: "Why better-than-expected earnings this reporting season may have trouble boosting market further"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-why-better-than-expected-earnings-this-reporting-season-may-have-trouble-boosting-market-further/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "No wonder bulls are praying for the market to broaden out. It’s the easiest path to get the overall market higher. “While headline S&P 500 Q2 revenue and profit growth will likely prove uninspiring, at the sector level there are many groups performing reasonably well,” Nicholas
- [WSJ: "Big Banks, Healthcare and Nvidia: Why Stocks Are up in July"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-big-banks-healthcare-and-nvidia-why-stocks-are-up-in-july/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "ChatGPT can’t take most credit for July’s stock rally. That’s according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Just 6% of July’s 1.9% gain in the S&P 500 comes from large tech stocks, he said in a note to clients Monday morning".... Full
- [MarketWatch: "Why stocks could get a boost from a falling U.S. dollar"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-why-stocks-could-get-a-boost-from-a-falling-u-s-dollar/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The S&P 500 may receive a lift from a softening U.S. dollar, according to market analysts. “A weaker dollar is a positive sign about global investor risk appetites and is therefore a welcomed shift from last quarter,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a
- [Bloomberg: "Wall Street Already Positioning for a Post-Rate-Hike World"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-wall-street-already-positioning-for-a-post-rate-hike-world-2/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Despite some investors’ wariness, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research says that overall, the market isn’t worried anymore about what the Fed will do. S&P 500 sector correlations are running below five-year averages, indicating that traders are making stock-specific bets, he said. The equity rally has
- [MarketWatch: "As tech stocks skyrocket, here are the S&P 500’s best and worst sectors for profit margins"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-as-tech-stocks-skyrocket-here-are-the-sp-500s-best-and-worst-sectors-for-profit-margins/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The U.S. stock market has seen company profit margins shrink consistently over the past two years, but they remain “solid” for the S&P 500 while estimates for the information-technology sector appear to be holding up relatively well, according to DataTrek Research. “The last few years have
- [Business Insider: "The S&P 500 is moving on from its Big Tech fixation, but that could mean smaller 3rd-quarter gains"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-sp-500-is-moving-on-from-its-big-tech-fixation-but-that-could-mean-smaller-3rd-quarter-gains/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Big Tech's hold on the S&P 500 is finally loosening, as other sectors strengthen their presence on the index, according to Nicholas Colas, cofounder of DataTrek Research. While those stocks accounted for virtually all the S&P 500's gains at the start of the year, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta have contributed less
- [Business Insider: "Here's where history says the latest bull market is headed next"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-heres-where-history-says-the-latest-bull-market-is-headed-next/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The stock market's current bull rally is likely to be of the slow-and-steady variety if history is a guide, and that means sluggish gains ahead, according to a Wednesday note from DataTrek Research... ...With the S&P 500 having bottomed in mid-October, or 185 trading days ago, it has
- [Business Insider: "Investors are once again chasing some of the most speculative names in the stock market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-investors-are-once-again-chasing-some-of-the-most-speculative-names-in-the-stock-market/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Many of these types of stocks make up the Roundhill MEME ETF, which has jumped about 60% so far in 2023. And according to DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe, the gains could continue as the ETF is still about 50% below its record high seen in
- [Bloomberg: "Wall Street Already Positioning for a Post-Rate-Hike World"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-wall-street-already-positioning-for-a-post-rate-hike-world/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Despite some investors’ wariness, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research says that overall, the market isn’t worried anymore about what the Fed will do. S&P 500 sector correlations are running below five-year averages, indicating that traders are making stock-specific bets, he said. The equity rally has
- [Bloomberg: "Stock Investors Are on Notice After Wall Street’s Fear Gauge Jumps"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-stock-investors-are-on-notice-after-wall-streets-fear-gauge-jumps/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The VIX tumbled 8 points to 13.6 in the first half of 2023. Going by the calendar alone, the odds of a short-term spike are long. July has been the calmest of all months since the VIX began. The index just closed below its long-term average
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas Talking Earnings on TD Ameritrade Network](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-talking-earnings-on-td-ameritrade-network/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on the TD Ameritrade Network with Oliver Renick discussing why the upcoming earnings season is the most important of the year. He also highlighted that tech is still driving earnings expectations, especially names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN). Watch the interview here!
- [Business Insider: "China's economic recovery is still 'stuck in first gear' as pollution readings show air quality is cleaner than pre-pandemic"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-chinas-economic-recovery-is-still-stuck-in-first-gear-as-pollution-readings-show-air-quality-is-cleaner-than-pre-pandemic/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "That's according to DataTrek Research, which tracks pollution levels in major Chinese cities to gauge the economic rebound of the country. China's economy is in recovery mode as it emerges from its strict COVID-19 lockdown measures, but it still has a long way to go based on recent
- [2H 2023 Outlook Survey Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/2h-2023-outlook-survey-results-2/): Today’s entire report will be dedicated to reviewing the results of last week’s DataTrek Second Half 2023 Outlook Survey. Thanks to all who participated! A few details, and then on to the results: We had a total of 578 responses. The vast majority (548 respondents, 95 percent) came from the DataTrek community, with 5 pct (30
- [MarketWatch: "Big Tech’s added bulk in S&P 500 in 2023 outweighs index’s energy sector, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-big-techs-added-bulk-in-sp-500-in-2023-outweighs-indexs-energy-sector-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "These “seven stocks are just over a quarter of the S&P after starting the year as one-fifth of the index,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, wrote in the note. “One might have convincingly argued that even 20 percent was too high a weighting, but that has
- [Bloomberg: "AI-Powered ETF Getting Left Behind by an AI-Powered Stock Rally"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-ai-powered-etf-getting-left-behind-by-an-ai-powered-stock-rally/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The irony at the heart of AIEQ’s underperformance is that the current AI investment craze is fueling recent gains in the broader equity indexes. Investors have piled into stocks such as chipmaker Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc., which are bulking up their AI efforts. While that boom has helped to
- [Business Insider: "The hype in AI stocks isn't a bubble yet, and little buy in from retail investors means there's room for more upside"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-hype-in-ai-stocks-isnt-a-bubble-yet-and-little-buy-in-from-retail-investors-means-theres-room-for-more-upside/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The hype in artificial intelligence is real, but that has yet to spill over into the stock market despite year-to-date rallies in mega-cap tech stocks like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia, according to DataTrek Research. That's because retail investors have yet to pile into the space as they're still licking
- [Business Insider: "Tech stocks are 'the only game in town' right now as they outperform the S&P 500"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-tech-stocks-are-the-only-game-in-town-right-now-as-they-outperform-the-sp-500/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "In a note on Tuesday, DataTrek founder Nicholas Colas pointed to the stellar returns tech stocks have posted since the start of the year, with the sector gaining 27% since January. That makes tech the second-best performing sector in the S&P 500, beating the benchmark
- [Reuters: "Wall St Week Ahead Artificial intelligence gives real boost to U.S. stock market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-wall-st-week-ahead-artificial-intelligence-gives-real-boost-to-u-s-stock-market/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Five stocks - Microsoft (MSFT.O), Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Apple (AAPL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) - are responsible for the S&P 500's entire year-to-date return, said Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research. About 25% to 50% of those gains are owed to "the buzz around artificial intelligence," she noted".... Full article
- [Business Insider: "There are 2 things needed to sustain this year's blistering rally in tech stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-there-are-2-things-needed-to-sustain-this-years-blistering-rally-in-tech-stocks/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "DataTrek, in a Thursday note, outlined history illustrating that the Nasdaq is carrying early-year momentum after surging 10.7% in January, which was above the average January return since 1980. Its 2.3% gain so far in the second quarter appeared on pace to reach or exceed
- [MarketWatch: "Debt ceiling debate: How U.S. government debt and stocks will perform if a resolution is reached, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-debt-ceiling-debate-how-u-s-government-debt-and-stocks-will-perform-if-a-resolution-is-reached-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Wall Street was watching as President Joe Biden said Wednesday that he is confident that the White House and congressional leaders would reach a deal on the debt ceiling. One worry is that once a resolution is reached, the government could start to issue new debt, which
- [Everything I Learned Working For Steve Cohen](https://datatrekresearch.com/everything-i-learned-working-for-steve-cohen/): I (Nick Colas) worked for Steve Cohen from 1999 to 2001. Over that time, I learned 6 lessons that inform everything we do at DataTrek Research today. #1: There is always a specific reason a stock is moving. In trading circles these are called catalysts: an unexpected event that reshapes the market’s perspective about a
- [WSJ: "Narrow Bond Spreads Signal Market Confidence in Profit Margins, DataTrek Says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-narrow-bond-spreads-signal-market-confidence-in-profit-margins-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek Research: ..."Corporate bond spreads lower than those seen during past periods of economic stress reflect investors’ confidence in the resilience of companies’ profit margins—even during a recession, DataTrek analysts wrote. Corporate bonds tend to offer higher yields than ultrasafe Treasurys. That spread compensates investors for the increased risk
- [MarketWatch: "Bond market signals interest rates will drop in 2023, but stock investors unsure if that’s ‘good news or bad,’ DataTrek chart shows"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-bond-market-signals-interest-rates-will-drop-in-2023-but-stock-investors-unsure-if-thats-good-news-or-bad-datatrek-chart-shows/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The U.S. stock market can’t seem to figure out whether the recent decline in Treasury yields is good or bad for equities, according to DataTrek Research. “The tie between 2-year yields and S&P 500 returns is mostly clear” over the past 16 months, Nicholas Colas, co-founder
- [Business Insider: "Berkshire Hathaway investors should diversify into tech after decades of the sector outperforming Warren Buffett's conglomerate, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-berkshire-hathaway-investors-should-diversify-into-tech-after-decades-of-the-sector-outperforming-warren-buffetts-conglomerate-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Over the past two decades, tech stocks have significantly outperformed Warren Buffett's conglomerate, and that's one reason why Berkshire investors should diversify their portfolio exposure into large cap tech, according to a Monday note from DataTrek Research... Compared against the SPDR S&P 500 Technology ETF, Berkshire Hathaway stock
- [Barron's: "Apple Stock and Big Tech Are Winners. Why Cathie Wood’s ARK Is Still a Loser."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-apple-stock-and-big-tech-are-winners-why-cathie-woods-ark-is-still-a-loser/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: Unfortunately, unlike a rising tide lifting all boats, Big Tech’s surge has largely been self-contained. Using Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ARKK) as a proxy for the more-speculative basket of tech stocks, DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe notes that it “continues to underperform the Nasdaq’s dot-com bubble meltdown during
- [DataTrek's Jessica Rabe on Yahoo Finance TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-jessica-rabe-on-yahoo-finance-tv/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe was on Yahoo Finance TV discussing investing and generative AI. She also discussed the differences in investment answers between OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard. Watch it here on Yahoo Finance!
- [Buffett Versus The S&P Tech Sector](https://datatrekresearch.com/buffett-versus-the-sp-tech-sector/): With the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting this past weekend, we got to wondering about BRK’s long run historical performance versus the US large cap Technology sector. Buffett and Munger are generally averse to buying tech stocks, with Apple being a notable exception. Does that predilection help or hurt their long run performance? We pulled the
- [Q1 Earnings Season Explains the Melt Up](https://datatrekresearch.com/q1-earnings-season-explains-the-melt-up/): US Q1 earnings season is half over, and a combination of the results to-date and how Wall Street analysts are responding to them explains why the S&P 500 is pushing through 6-month highs. Two points on this topic: First, Q1 is starting to look like it was a good, if not great, quarter versus expectations.
- [The Real Story about Q1’s Big Stock Gains](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-real-story-about-q1s-big-stock-gains/): After a strong Q1 for US/global equities, how should investors think about portfolio composition for Q2 and the rest of 2023? If this is the beginning of a new bull market, then it makes sense to keep equity allocations stable or even increase them. On the other hand, if Q1 was just a head fake,
- [Big Tech Drives US/EM YTD Gains](https://datatrekresearch.com/big-tech-drives-us-em-ytd-gains/): With just a week left in Q1 2023, the headline appears to be “Global stocks begin the year by clawing back some of 2022’s outsized losses”. Here is the quarter to date price return data for major regions: S&P 500: +3.4 percent year to date MSCI Europe: +5.5 pct YTD MSCI Japan: +4.9 pct YTD MSCI
- [Using The VIX To Time The Market](https://datatrekresearch.com/using-the-vix-to-time-the-market/): The S&P 500 is down 17% since the start of 2022, but there have been many trading opportunities over the last 15 months. The key question for both short term traders and longer-term investors has been, and continues to be, “How do I identify good entry/exist points?” At DataTrek, we have relied on the CBOE
- [The Real Story About Analysts’ Estimates](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-real-story-about-analysts-estimates/): “Why are Wall Street analysts’ earnings estimates almost always too high for the upcoming year but too low for the current quarter?" I (Nick) spent 9 years as a senior equity analyst at the old First Boston (now Credit Suisse) and was on the Wall Street Journal’s “Most Accurate Earnings Estimates” list every year until
- [Inflation Hedges: 3 Sectors Stand Out](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-hedges-3-sectors-stand-out/): If we’ve learned one thing this year, it is that US equities are not an inflation hedge. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are each down 19 percent YTD, and 1-year CPI inflation is running 8 pct. Stock investors have lost more than 25 percent this year on a real, after inflation, basis. Aggressive Federal
- [Q3 Earnings: What You Need to Know](https://datatrekresearch.com/q3-earnings-what-you-need-to-know/): With US equity markets deep into Q3 corporate earnings season, today we have 3 points to keep in mind as you evaluate what these datapoints signal about the future direction of stocks: #1: Always remember that the stock market looks 6 months into the future. A given stock might rise or fall after its earnings
- [The VIX Says “Lighten Up”](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-vix-says-lighten-up/): US large caps have had a great run from their October 12th lows, with the S&P 500 up 12.6 percent through last Friday. That’s not quite as good as the June – August move of 17.4 percent from trough to peak, but it is still better than every other “bear market rally” this year. Moreover,
- [Reuters: "Cannabis shares rally as Canopy seeks to accelerate U.S. market entry"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-cannabis-shares-rally-as-canopy-seeks-to-accelerate-u-s-market-entry/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Gaining exposure to the U.S. market would be a plus for Canopy, but since public marijuana companies' stocks are low-priced, "any move is amplified because markets expect little from these names," Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in an e-mail... ...Federal legalization of marijuana in the
- [3 Lessons from the 1987 Crash](https://datatrekresearch.com/3-lessons-from-the-1987-crash/): This Wednesday, October 19th, marks the 35th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash. I (Nick) was working as a customer service representative at the old Alliance Capital (now AllianceBernstein) that day. I have, therefore, had a lot of time to reflect on how October 1987 changed investor perceptions of how markets function. To our
- [Business Insider: "ARK Invest's flagship fund is outpacing the decline seen during the dot-com bubble burst and a long-term recovery will be difficult for 2 reasons"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-ark-invests-flagship-fund-is-outpacing-the-decline-seen-during-the-dot-com-bubble-burst-and-a-long-term-recovery-will-be-difficult-for-2-reasons/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "ARK Invest's flagship fund fell to a new 52-week low on Tuesday, and the decline could get worse from here for two big reasons, DataTrek Research said in a Wednesday note. In the 419 days since its all-time high, the ARK Invest's Disruptive Innovation ETF has fallen 77%. That's
- [MarketWatch: "What stock-market investors will be watching in Thursday’s U.S. inflation report"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-what-stock-market-investors-will-be-watching-in-thursdays-u-s-inflation-report/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "The S&P 500 SPX, -0.33% is down 24.6% year to date through Wednesday, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Most of the single days that are responsible for the decline occurred on or around CPI reports or Fed-related events, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note on
- [Yahoo Finance: "The stock market's 'nightmare' chart is already a reality"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-stock-markets-nightmare-chart-is-already-a-reality/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas reminded us in a newsletter this week why it’s so hard, pointing out that even though the S&P 500 is down over 23% year to date, "9 single days make up that entire decline." “Without them, in fact, the index would be
- [MarketWatch: "Why Nasdaq is ‘reasonable alternative’ to Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF in this stock-market environment, according to DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-why-nasdaq-is-reasonable-alternative-to-cathie-woods-ark-innovation-etf-in-this-stock-market-environment-according-to-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ... "With Cathie Wood’s flagship ARK Innovation ETF potentially facing more pain in the stock-market slump, the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite may provide investors more “insulation” in today’s “challenging macroeconomic environment,” according to DataTrek Research. “If you want exposure to disruptive tech, the Nasdaq is a reasonable alternative
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on The Compound & Friends Podcast w/ Josh Brown & Michael Batnick](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-the-compound-friends-podcast-w-josh-brown-michael-batnick/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was recently on The Compound and Friends podcast with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick, discussing everything from his useful tool for trading these volatile markets and the strong dollar to Tesla/Apple and disruptive vs sustaining innovation. The episode has received a huge positive response and tens of thousands of views on
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas' CNBC Segment](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-cnbc-segment/): Excerpt from DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas' segment on CNBC: ...“It’s important to remember that efficient market theory doesn’t say markets are priced correctly every day,” Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in the same segment. “It says that there’s no reliable way to find the mispricing, and that’s still true. And that is why
- [CNBC: "How a decline in some Google searches shows retail investors are leaving the market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-how-a-decline-in-some-google-searches-shows-retail-investors-are-leaving-the-market/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Judging by online search trends, the curiosity over stock prices has returned back to its pre-pandemic levels. Terms related to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Apple and Tesla are reliable proxies for retail investor interest, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Market-related searches peaked in mid-March
- [MarketWatch: "‘This is not healthy’: The latest advance for stocks could signal more pain ahead for markets. Here’s why"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-this-is-not-healthy-the-latest-advance-for-stocks-could-signal-more-pain-ahead-for-markets-heres-why/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "But as tempting as it might be to call a bottom in stocks, Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said Tuesday that investors should brace for more carnage in the near term as several reliable historical signs of a durable bottom are still missing from markets. Valuations
- [Crain's NY Business: "How New York workplaces are defying the Great Resignation"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-business-how-new-york-workplaces-are-defying-the-great-resignation/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "However, the pendulum may be starting to shift again. Job openings posted their third-largest monthly drop on record in June, at 605,000, behind only March and April 2020. Even so, “data does not yet indicate a meaningful shift in the balance of power from
- [Barron's: "The Market Has Taken a Beating. Why It’s Still Too Soon for Bargains."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-market-has-taken-a-beating-why-its-still-too-soon-for-bargains/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas also sees signs for concerns. In a note to clients, Colas noted that Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet ’s Google (GOOG), Facebook owner Meta Platform (META) and Nvidia (NVDA) hit 52-week lows on Friday even though the S&P 500 didn’t. “That is a bad sign going into third quarter financial reporting season and implies coming earnings
- [Outsized Vol, Finding a Low](https://datatrekresearch.com/outsized-vol-finding-a-low/): This year has been exceptionally volatile for US equities, with the S&P 500 down over 3 percent on 8 days. That’s over 3 standard deviations (1 percentage point apiece) away from the long run mean for daily returns (+0.03 pct). To show just how unusual this is, consider these stats: The S&P has only fallen
- [How the Pros Call The Bottom](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-the-pros-call-the-bottom/): You have probably seen and/or heard dozens of market commentators discuss their views on where the S&P 500 bottoms in the current market cycle. Some say we are at the lows right now. Others think the index might make its lows at 3,400 or 3,000 or even lower still. This is an important debate for
- [Bloomberg: "Disorderly UK Gilt Rout Is a Test of Confidence for Fearful Markets"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-disorderly-uk-gilt-rout-is-a-test-of-confidence-for-fearful-markets/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "That’s just a hairline away from the panic level Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, is looking at. To him, 33 to 36 is the range that would signify “panic,” a level the VIX hit just once this year on March 7. (The VIX closed at
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas' Interview on CNBC's ETF Edge](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-interview-on-cnbcs-etf-edge/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC's ETF Edge with Bob Pisani discussing the evolution of the ETF industry. Watch it here on CNBC!
- [Bloomberg: "Stocks Bounce as Yields Drop in Countdown to Fed: Markets Wrap"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-stocks-bounce-as-yields-drop-in-countdown-to-fed-markets-wrap/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas at DataTrek Research expects the Fed’s boss to sound much like his Jackson Hole speech at the end of August: “unapologetically resolute.” While fed fund futures are pricing in a possible cut or two in rates next year, Colas noted the central bank’s new
- [MarketWatch: "The stock market has rallied on day of every Fed rate-hike decision in 2022. Could it happen again Wednesday?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-stock-market-has-rallied-on-day-of-every-fed-rate-hike-decision-in-2022-could-it-happen-again-wednesday/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "With the Federal Open Market Committee kicking off its two-day policy meeting, where central bankers are expected to announce a 0.75 percentage point rate hike, the Fed decision on Wednesday may once again be followed by stock-market gains, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. According to
- [Bloomberg: "Bitcoin Touches 3-Month Low; Ether Extends Swoon Since ‘Merge’"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-bitcoin-touches-3-month-low-ether-extends-swoon-since-merge/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Meanwhile, interest in digital currencies has waned, according to Google trends data compiled by Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research. Search volumes have trended lower as Bitcoin fell toward $20,000 this year. Bitcoin “works best when new investors come into the fold with fresh money. It is
- [WSJ: "The Nasdaq Has Crushed ARKK Since 2019"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-the-nasdaq-has-crushed-arkk-since-2019/): Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund raced past the markets in 2020 and the start of 2021. It hasn't done as well since. In fact, going back to the start of 2019, the Nasdaq Composite has risen 74%, while the ARK Innovation ETF is
- [WSJ: "Why Stocks Could Test June's Lows"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-why-stocks-could-test-junes-lows/): Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The stock market's lows of June 2022 might not turn out to be the year's lows, of course. Some data from DataTrek highlight the risk. Out of the last 64 years, according to DataTrek, the S&P 500 has ended the year lower 13
- [WSJ: "Big Tech Stocks Still Look Expensive After Earnings Revisions"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-big-tech-stocks-still-look-expensive-after-earnings-revisions/): Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ....Analysts are cutting down earnings estimates for megacap technology stocks at a faster pace than the S&P 500, but shares still mostly look expensive, DataTrek Research points out in a Thursday note. Looking at Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook parent Meta Platforms
- [Business Insider: "Recession indicators are flashing and Wall Street's fear gauge suggests stocks haven't hit bottom. Here's what you want to know."](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-recession-indicators-are-flashing-and-wall-streets-fear-gauge-suggests-stocks-havent-hit-bottom-heres-what-you-want-to-know/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "But it's not just bonds that are flashing a warning. The stock market's fear gauge is off, too, according to DataTrek. In a Thursday note, DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said the VIX's current reading of about 26 was too low, signaling stocks haven't bottomed. "A VIX below 28 in
- [Business Insider: "Wall Street's fear gauge is too low after Tuesday's brutal sell-off, signaling stocks haven't yet hit bottom"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-wall-streets-fear-gauge-is-too-low-after-tuesdays-brutal-sell-off-signaling-stocks-havent-yet-hit-bottom/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Chances that the stock market has found its bottom appear unlikely based on the current measurement of Wall Street's closely followed fear gauge, also known as the CBOE Volatility Index. That's according to DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas, who highlighted in a Thursday note that the VIX's current reading
- [Yahoo Finance: "Stock market news live updates: Stocks log worst day since 2020 as CPI triggers meltdown"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-stock-market-news-live-updates-stocks-log-worst-day-since-2020-as-cpi-triggers-meltdown/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Once we get past this week’s CPI and PPI inflation reports and next week’s FOMC meeting, the next major market catalyst will be Q3 earnings,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas said in a note this week. According to data from FactSet Research, earnings growth expectations for the S&P
- [Financial Times: "Wall Street stocks drop for third straight day on rate rise expectations"](https://datatrekresearch.com/financial-times-wall-street-stocks-drop-for-third-straight-day-on-rate-rise-expectations/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The index could rise further, warned Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “US equities do not reflect sufficient fear given current macro and micro uncertainties,” he said".... Full article here on the Financial Times.
- [MarketWatch: "How low can the stock market go? 4 bear scenarios investors should keep in mind"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-how-low-can-the-stock-market-go-4-bear-scenarios-investors-should-keep-in-mind/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ..."Bears who reckon the S&P 500 hasn’t yet found its bottom see the large-cap benchmark falling 15% to 35% from current levels, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. With that in mind, the Wall Street veteran, in a Thursday note, outlined four downside scenarios that investors should
- [Bloomberg Interview w/ DataTrek's Nick Colas](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-interview-w-datatreks-nick-colas/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was interviewed on Bloomberg TV explaining why there's been a resurgence in meme stocks, where retail money flows are going, and his advice for those trading individual names. You can watch it here starting at 6:26 on Bloomberg.
- [Bloomberg: "Two Nations Divided by an Uncommon Inflation"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-two-nations-divided-by-an-uncommon-inflation/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Zooming in on the quarter to date, the grind upward may have been a bit bumpier, but the S&P 500 has still outperformed. That’s mainly because it bottomed on June 16, according to Nicholas Colas, cofounder of DataTrek Research. That eventful week, he says, also saw the Nasdaq
- [Near Term Outlook Survey Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/near-term-outlook-survey-results/): Today we will take the entire Morning Briefing to discuss the results of last week’s “DataTrek Near Term Outlook Survey”. Thanks to all who took the time to complete it! A few background points to set the stage: We had a total of 610 responses. Most surveys were completed between August 8th (last Monday) and August
- [CNN Business: "America has fewer open jobs. Is that reason to worry?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnn-business-america-has-fewer-open-jobs-is-that-reason-to-worry/): Excerpt from CNN Business quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Job openings still need to fall by 3.7 million to get back to their February 2020 pre-pandemic level, but June's print shows they are now coming down at the fastest rate since the start of the pandemic crisis," Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research said in a
- [CNBC: "Market signals like the ‘VIX’ indicate this comeback rally may be getting ahead of itself"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-market-signals-like-the-vix-indicate-this-comeback-rally-may-be-getting-ahead-of-itself/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."A key measure of stock volatility is providing clues that investors should be wary of the recent market rally, according to Data Trek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. The CBOE Volatility Index has come off its most recent mid-June highs and now is trading around its long-term average of 20.
- [FT: "Wall Street stocks start the week higher as traders assess rate rise outlook"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-wall-street-stocks-start-the-week-higher-as-traders-assess-rate-rise-outlook/): Except from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Seeing stocks hold firm after a hot jobs report is genuinely surprising,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, who cautioned against attributing too much importance to stocks’ resilience. “To our thinking, the idea that investors must reset their expected timing of a Fed-induced
- [Axios: "Investors like the climate deal"](https://datatrekresearch.com/axios-investors-like-the-climate-deal/): Excerpt from Axios quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Yes, but: If the bill passes, a lot needs to happen before it translates into a deployment surge, given workforce challenges, project siting hurdles and more. And the bill is unlikely to end volatility in the clean energy sector, where companies are grappling with input cost fluctuations and other variables.
- [Bloomberg: "Clean Energy ETFs Spike on Senate’s Passage of Climate Bill"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-clean-energy-etfs-spike-on-senates-passage-of-climate-bill/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "This political tailwind should continue to act as a positive catalyst for these names in the near-term,” Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said last week after Manchin’s approval of the deal. “However, Republicans are expected to take back control of Congress this fall, so it’s
- [Business Insider: "The July jobs report reset the recession clock but 2 warning signs show there are still near-term risks to the stock market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-july-jobs-report-reset-the-recession-clock-but-2-warning-signs-show-there-are-still-near-term-risks-to-the-stock-market/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Investors may have reset the clock on their recession expectations after last week's strong jobs report, but the market's favorable reaction to the data on Friday shouldn't discount two warning signals of still-looming risks to stocks, DataTrek said on Monday.... ...."We won't take too much away
- [WSJ: "High U.S. Valuations Don't Make Foreign Shares More Attractive"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-high-u-s-valuations-dont-make-foreign-shares-more-attractive/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "U.S. stocks are trading at 17.1 times their projected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with 11.5 times for Europe, 12.4 times for Japan and 10.9 times for emerging markets, according to DataTrek Research. Yet investors have piled into U.S. equities: Since
- [Only 2 Things Matter to Stocks Right Now](https://datatrekresearch.com/only-2-things-matter-to-stocks-right-now/): Whether or not Federal Reserve monetary policy eventually causes an official US “recession”, every US equity investor must have a perspective on two key questions: The first relates to US corporate earnings: how bad will they get in an economic slowdown, and how quickly will they recover? The second is about valuation: what will the
- [Spotting Entry Points With the VIX](https://datatrekresearch.com/spotting-entry-points-with-the-vix/): How can we tell when US large cap stocks have hit near term highs and lows? Whether you are a trader or investor, this has been a critical issue all year. Equity market volatility has been very high, making it difficult to know when to lighten up or add to portfolio positions. Getting these calls
- [Yahoo Finance: "Stocks slip to start August lower amid earnings, data deluge"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-stocks-slip-to-start-august-lower-amid-earnings-data-deluge/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek's Nicholas Colas points out that in recent weeks, equities have reflected typical “risk-on” behavior, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-caps, and the Nasdaq Composite beating the S&P 500. The rebound came amid expectations that recent signs of a slowing economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to
- [Yahoo Finance: "What if the markets are misreading the Fed"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-what-if-the-markets-are-misreading-the-fed/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "I think Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, really nailed it. From his note on Thursday (emphasis added): After a very difficult year-to-date, U.S. equity markets desperately want to forecast an end to rate increases, start assuming rate cuts, and look through the valley to the next economic
- [Forbes: "Economy Shrank 0.9% Last Quarter As Experts Warn ‘Worse To Come’"](https://datatrekresearch.com/forbes-economy-shrank-0-9-last-quarter-as-experts-warn-worse-to-come/): Excerpt from Forbes quoting DataTrek: .... "Though economist projections continued to call for a return to growth in the second quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model late last month began signaling the start of a technical recession, pushing its GDP forecast into negative territory after economic data showed consumer spending dropped in
- [MarketWatch: "S&P 500, Dow score biggest monthly gains since November 2020, Nasdaq books best July ever"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-sp-500-dow-score-biggest-monthly-gains-since-november-2020-nasdaq-books-best-july-ever/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "The iShares Global Clean Energy ETF, Invesco Solar ETF and First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund — the three largest U.S.-listed ETFs in clean energy — illustrate the recent outperformance, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe. “All three clean-energy ETFs have handily outperformed the S&P over
- [Bloomberg: "Stocks Rise to Kick Off Busy Week for Wall Street"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-stocks-rise-to-kick-off-busy-week-for-wall-street/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The question for investors is how much of the slowdown is already reflected in stock prices. For Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, this week will be something of a “make-or-break” period for investors’ confidence in US corporate earnings power... ...“For the recent rally to continue,
- [Yahoo Finance: "Tech leads stocks higher as earnings rush in, ECB hikes rates"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-tech-leads-stocks-higher-as-earnings-rush-in-ecb-hikes-rates/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "“Only earnings truly matter; other issues are simply sidebars to that main narrative,” Nicholas Colas, Co-founder of DataTrek Research said in a Thursday morning note, adding that Fed policy, investor confidence, and events may shock the system and understanding them can provide helpful context. “Ultimately, however,
- [Axios: "Stocks add to gains, shrug off Fed and data fears"](https://datatrekresearch.com/axios-stocks-add-to-gains-shrug-off-fed-and-data-fears/): Excerpt from Axios quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "What they’re saying: Some market analysts believe the market is looking oversold and is ripe for buying — hence why benchmarks have quietly stitched together an improbable win streak. Bank of America found that its clients were net buyers of stocks for 3 consecutive weeks. “Retail and
- [Barron's: "3 Speed Bumps for the Rally in Chinese Stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-3-speed-bumps-for-the-rally-in-chinese-stocks/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Part of the draw has been the market’s steep declines. Take the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB), a proxy for China tech. Its decline from a high in February 2021 to this spring, when Chinese policy makers indicated their crackdown on the sector was winding down matched the
- [Barron's: "Why There’s a Chance the Stock Market Has Hit Bottom"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-why-theres-a-chance-the-stock-market-has-hit-bottom/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Plus, the fed funds futures market is reflecting a peak rate of about 4% and the possibility for rate cuts next year. That could provide relief for the economy—and the stock market. “Whether the FOMC raises interest rates by 75 or 100 basis points a week from
- [Bloomberg: "Corporate Profits May Be the Next Thing to Break"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-corporate-profits-may-be-the-next-thing-to-break-2/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "First, consider the outlook for earnings. Signs are emerging that the US is headed toward an economic contraction, and corporate profits typically shrink about 25% during a recession, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. Analysts are nowhere near baking that into their earnings outlooks. In
- [Forbes: "Surging Dollar Is Bad News For Stocks—History Shows Markets Won’t Recover Until Greenback Falls"](https://datatrekresearch.com/forbes-surging-dollar-is-bad-news-for-stocks-history-shows-markets-wont-recover-until-greenback-falls/): Excerpt from Forbes quoting DataTrek: .... "In the current environment, the dollar's strength is a sign of investors’ concerns about a global recession, say Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research, adding that it signals a flight to the relative safety of the world’s reserve currency, as the euro, British pound and Japanese yen
- [Business Insider: "The Treasury yield curve inversion is deepening as a key warning of a coming recession flashes its strongest signal since 2007"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-treasury-yield-curve-inversion-is-deepening-as-a-key-warning-of-a-coming-recession-flashes-its-strongest-signal-since-2007/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "An inverted yield curve preceded the 1990, 2001, and 2008 recessions, according to DataTrek. However, an inversion only predicts a downturn if it lasts for several months, as brief flashes in the 2-year Treasury yield typically don't determine much".... Full article here on Business Insider.
- [Barron's: "Elon Musk Never Should Have Tried to Buy Twitter"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-elon-musk-never-should-have-tried-to-buy-twitter/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek: ... "It’s not the fairy tale ending investors would have hoped for when Elon Musk made his bid in April. But was Musk ever a good fit for the company? Not according to Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, the co-founders of DataTrek Research... The team at DataTrek poured cold water
- [FT: "Treasury yields rise after Fed minutes show inflation concern"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-treasury-yields-rise-after-fed-minutes-show-inflation-concern/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "Data compiled by Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, showed that dollar peaks correlated with the exact days of lows for the S&P 500 in 2009 and 2020. “The dollar has given useful information at prior major US large-cap equity lows,” he said. “The fact
- [Axios: "The dollar’s "remarkable" double-edged sword"](https://datatrekresearch.com/axios-the-dollars-remarkable-double-edged-sword/): Excerpt from Axios quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "What they’re saying: Nick Colas, DataTrek’s co-founder, noted last month that the dollar’s “remarkable” strength has played a role in every major market meltdown since 1970. “To see so many of the developed world’s major currencies either at or through multi-year lows to the greenback is
- [CNBC: "Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows the U.S. economy is likely in a recession"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-atlanta-fed-gdp-tracker-shows-the-u-s-economy-is-likely-in-a-recession/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "“GDPNow has a strong track record, and the closer we get to July 28th’s release [of the initial Q2 GDP estimate] the more accurate it becomes,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research... ...To be sure, this tracker can be volatile and swing with every data
- [Bloomberg: "Corporate Profits May Be the Next Thing to Break"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-corporate-profits-may-be-the-next-thing-to-break/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "First, consider the outlook for earnings. Signs are emerging that the US is headed toward an economic contraction, and corporate profits typically shrink about 25% during a recession, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. Analysts are nowhere near baking that into their earnings outlooks. In
- [The S&P 500 and Recession: Where Do Stocks Bottom?](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-sp-500-and-recession-where-do-stocks-bottom/): The most important macroeconomic question facing investors today is “Can the Federal Reserve tame inflation without causing a recession?” As much as US stock prices are down this year, they do not reflect ANY recession risk. Here’s how we know that stock prices do not discount a recession: At 3,900, the S&P 500 is trading
- [Using VIX Levels to Trade US Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/using-vix-levels-to-trade-us-stocks/): With US stocks as volatile as they are this year, knowing when to add or reduce long exposure is key to maximizing every money-making opportunity this market offers. If you manage money for others, this may be the difference between keeping and losing customers in 2022. If you trade for yourself, playing the bounces and
- [Bloomberg: "All-Over-Map Valuation Models Thwart Unified Stock-Market Thesis](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-all-over-map-valuation-models-thwart-unified-stock-market-thesis/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "A scenario analysis by DataTrek Research shows that if a recession is avoided, existing earnings estimates point to an possible target of of 4,100 for the S&P 500. If not, 3,300 could be on the horizon. The index was little changed at around 3,770 in mid-morning
- [Barron's: "Thinking About Bargain-Hunting Stocks? Here’s Why You May Want to Hold Off."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-thinking-about-bargain-hunting-stocks-heres-why-you-may-want-to-hold-off/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas sees more pain ahead as well. In a note to clients on Friday, he mapped out possible paths for the S&P 500 based on the trajectory for earnings. With the S&P 500 trading at about 18 times earnings, Colas says a
- [Business Insider: "The crash in the Nasdaq is looking a lot like the bursting of the 2000 dot-com bubble — and that lasted almost 3 years"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-crash-in-the-nasdaq-is-looking-a-lot-like-the-bursting-of-the-2000-dot-com-bubble-and-that-lasted-almost-3-years/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "From January 2001 onwards, the Fed cut interest rates 11 times, according to Jessica Rabe, co-founder of financial analysts company DataTrek. "Not even an accommodative Fed was able to rescue the Nasdaq in the early 2000s, but who knows how much worse it could have
- [Forbes: "Stock Market ‘Carnage’ Set To Worsen As Fed Rate Decision Looms—Here’s How Bad It Could Get"](https://datatrekresearch.com/forbes-stock-market-carnage-set-to-worsen-as-fed-rate-decision-looms-heres-how-bad-it-could-get/): Excerpt from Forbes quoting DataTrek: .... "Despite all major indexes closing in bear-market territory on Monday, the CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of expected volatility known as the “fear gauge," failed to hit levels that are consistent with market lows, Datatrek analysts said in an overnight email, noting markets tend to bottom only after periods of panic
- [Yahoo Finance: "Bear markets 'always' bring down inflation: DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-bear-markets-always-bring-down-inflation-datatrek/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The S&P 500 is officially in a bear market. For anyone watching their portfolios — or near retirement — this is stressful. But there’s a bright side, of sorts: bear markets tend to scare away the inflation crushing investors today. “Equity bear markets have one hidden
- [CPI Inflation Primer](https://datatrekresearch.com/cpi-primer/): There’s a lot of attention on Friday’s US Consumer Price Index inflation report, and with that focus we’ve seen quite a bit of commentary that betrays a lack of understanding about how this measure is constructed. Today’s “Data” section is therefore a combination primer and look-ahead to Friday’s release in our usual 3-point format. #1: These
- [DataTrek's Jessica Rabe's Interview w/ Crain's NY Business](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-jessica-rabes-interview-w-crains-ny-business/): DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe was interviewed by Crain's New York Business on the US legal marijuana industry. Here is an excerpt: ...."Let's talk weed. Will the black market end when recreational cannabis becomes available in New York? I doubt it. The black market in California is twice the size of the legal one. You already see
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC's ETF Edge](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbcs-etf-edge-3/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC's ETF Edge with Bob Pisani discussing why retail investors are turning to leveraged and inverse funds. Nick also shared why the energy sector saw modest outflows in May despite its continued outperformance. Watch it here on CNBC!
- [Forbes: "Jobless Claims Keep Rising Unexpectedly—Experts Worry Stock Market Crash Could Have Spillover Effects On Economy"](https://datatrekresearch.com/forbes-jobless-claims-keep-rising-unexpectedly-experts-worry-stock-market-crash-could-have-spillover-effects-on-economy/): Forbes quoting DataTrek Research: ...“Claims have been rising since mid-March and can double before we even get to prior-period cycle lows,” DataTrek analysts Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe said in a morning note, pointing out employment growth tends to slow as interest rates go up and saying hiring could slow down as soon as this
- [CNBC's Interview w/ DataTrek's Nick Colas](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbcs-interview-w-datatreks-nick-colas/): CNBC interviewed DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas on his lessons for how to trade a volatile market, as well as his outlook for tech stocks and top equity sector pick. Watch it here on CNBC!
- [Crain's NY Business: "Tech firms face brain drain as their stocks sink"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-business-tech-firms-face-brain-drain-as-their-stocks-sink/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Tech bosses are having some heart-to-heart talks with important employees about sticking around while stock prices are in the dumps. “In most places, only a handful of people really move the ball forward,” said Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Make sure they
- [Yahoo Finance: "The S&P 500 is having its worst year so far in six decades: DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-sp-500-is-having-its-worst-year-so-far-in-six-decades-datatrek/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Recent analysis from DataTrek Research, a market research firm, revealed how the index's performance this year looks in the larger historical context. “While there’s still 3 weeks of trading left in May, 2022 has been the worst year-to-date return (-16.3 pct) so far relative to overall
- [Barron's: "Stocks Are Falling. Consider These Signs When Deciding Whether to Wade Into the Market."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-stocks-are-falling-consider-these-signs-when-deciding-whether-to-wade-into-the-market-2/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "With more pain likely for U.S. and global stocks, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas told clients in a note that investors’ primary goal right now “should be to get to that point with a minimum of incremental damage to their portfolios.” That means avoiding holding stocks
- [Barron's: "The S&P 500 Could Avoid a Bear Market If Apple Stock Holds Up"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-sp-500-could-avoid-a-bear-market-if-apple-stock-holds-up/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "That means that if Apple stock stands its ground above $150, the S&P 500 has a chance to remain above bear market territory, as the other 93% of the index’s market value would have to drop more than 5% to bring the entire index down to 3,836.
- [WSJ: "Apple Is No Longer World’s Most Valuable Company"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-apple-is-no-longer-worlds-most-valuable-company/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "For those readers who remember 2000-2002, you’ve seen this movie before. If you weren’t investing back then, just know today’s slide in Apple is part of a larger trend of investor risk aversion, not ‘the market getting it wrong,’” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder
- [FT: "Global stocks suffer worst day since June 2020 amid slowdown fears"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-global-stocks-suffer-worst-day-since-june-2020-amid-slowdown-fears/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "No one knows with any certainty if that’s enough to quell future inflation,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Hence all the recent market volatility.” Economists expect data released on Wednesday to show US consumer prices jumped 8.1 per cent in April compared
- [Business Insider: "Wall Street thinks the only thing that will save the stock market is a 'Fed pause' — but 3 things would need to happen first for the central bank to stop tightening"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-wall-street-thinks-the-only-thing-that-will-save-the-stock-market-is-a-fed-pause-but-3-things-would-need-to-happen-first-for-the-central-bank-to-stop-tightening/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: What separates the current market decline from others is that the Fed likely welcomes the ongoing stock sell-off as a tool to fight inflation, according to DataTrek. "Lower stock prices tell companies to stop hiring so aggressively and feeding wage inflation. They also create a reverse wealth
- [MarketWatch: "When will stocks find a bottom? Treasury yields need a footing first, says this strategist"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-when-will-stocks-find-a-bottom-treasury-yields-need-a-footing-first-says-this-strategist/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Maybe forget about finding a crystal ball for stocks. It’s “Finance 101 stuff” that Treasury yields need to stabilize before it’s possible for investors to gauge if U.S. equities have hit bottom, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Since Treasury yields provide the “bedrock of
- [Earnings Expectations](https://datatrekresearch.com/earnings-expectations/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Today’s US equity market rout was caused by disappointing earnings over the last 2 days at major retailers like Walmart and Target, which supports our ongoing belief that market expectations for S&P 500 earnings are still too high. Looking through the WMT and TGT press releases, the following items caught
- [Russell 2000 Volatility](https://datatrekresearch.com/russell-2000-volatility/): Continuing yesterday’s “Markets” discussion, which analyzed current S&P 500 price volatility to prior periods of investor uncertainty since 2005, today we have the same data but for the Russell 2000. By way of brief review: We measure price volatility by looking at the standard deviation of daily returns over the prior 100 days. In the case
- [Outlook on Energy Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/outlook-on-energy-stocks/): Large cap Energy is still our favorite sector even though it made a new 52-week high yesterday (ETF symbol XLE), so let’s talk about why we think this group still has room to work. To keep things simple, let’s look at ExxonMobil and Chevron. These two names comprise 44 percent of the S&P large Cap Energy
- [S&P Valuations: "Cheap"?](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-valuations-cheap/): The FactSet chart above of the last decade’s S&P 500’s price earnings ratios based on expected 12-month future earnings is making the rounds, so let’s talk about it. At first glance, it looks like US large caps are cheaper now (16.6x forward 12-month estimates, as noted) than the average of the last decade (16.9x, dotted blue
- [S&P 500 Recession Math](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-500-recession-math/): How much recession risk is baked into the S&P 500 at current levels? Here is one way to think about that question: Start with current earnings power, which we know is $54 - $55/share per quarter since that’s what the index’s companies generated in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022. This works out to $218/share, and that
- [Wall Street Analysts Cut Numbers/Targets](https://datatrekresearch.com/wall-street-analysts-cut-numbers-targets/): Wall Street analysts are starting to take their 2H 2022/2023 earnings estimates down, and they are slowly reducing price targets as well. The data here is from FactSet’s weekly Earnings Insight report (link below). To set the stage, here are the last 2 quarters of S&P 500 earnings per share: Q4 2021: $55.38/share Q1 2022, with
- [FT: "Buckle up"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-buckle-up/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The problem seems to be that investors seem unusually uncertain of the path forward. Nick Colas of DataTrek Research highlighted how the Vix volatility index didn’t go higher than 33 points on Thursday — below even March’s peak — despite the S&P 500 suffering its
- [Investor's Business Daily: "12 Horrific Stock Crashes Become Nightmares For Gen Z Investors"](https://datatrekresearch.com/investors-business-daily-12-horrific-stock-crashes-become-nightmares-for-gen-z-investors/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "And yet, this is a stock smackdown of historic proportions in many of the widely held positions. It's big enough to leave an indelible imprint on how this generation approaches investing in the future. Younger investors might be learning a lesson. "Feel free to
- [Barron's: "Stocks Are Falling. Consider These Signs When Deciding Whether to Wade Into the Market."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-stocks-are-falling-consider-these-signs-when-deciding-whether-to-wade-into-the-market/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "With more pain likely for U.S. and global stocks, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas told clients in a note that investors’ primary goal right now “should be to get to that point with a minimum of incremental damage to their portfolios.” That means avoiding holding stocks
- [CNBC: "A full recap of the Fed’s rate hike and big market rally"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-a-full-recap-of-the-feds-rate-hike-and-big-market-rally/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas noted that the market’s set-up heading into the Fed decision “is a near carbon copy” of the last two meetings. After those meetings, the S&P 500 rallied between 5.2% and 6.3% in the following one to two weeks, Colas said".... Read the full article
- [Bloomberg: "Big Stock Bears Say S&P 500 Bottom Still Another 700 Points Away"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-big-stock-bears-say-sp-500-bottom-still-another-700-points-away/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The only good thing about a bear market is that there are excellent returns available when they end. Until that point becomes clearer, however, risk is just another four-letter word".... Full article here on Bloomberg.
- [Business Insider: "There is one under-the-radar metric that suggests underperformance in Chinese stocks is likely to continue, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-there-is-one-under-the-radar-metric-that-suggests-underperformance-in-chinese-stocks-is-likely-to-continue-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The ongoing weakness in Chinese stocks is likely to continue as the country grapples with an outbreak in COVID-19, DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a note on Tuesday. One under-the-radar indicator he used to confirm his view on Chinese stocks is city air-quality data, according to the note. "The
- [CNBC: "The market won’t hit bottom until it gets a better handle on just how aggressive the Fed is going to be"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-the-market-wont-hit-bottom-until-it-gets-a-better-handle-on-just-how-aggressive-the-fed-is-going-to-be/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "But things could get worse if Wall Street keeps pricing in a more aggressive central bank. “We continue to believe that U.S./global equities will not bottom until markets stop discounting ever more aggressive Fed rate policy,” wrote DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas. “We believe the chances of
- [Financial Times: "Global stocks drop as China lockdowns trigger growth fears"](https://datatrekresearch.com/financial-times-global-stocks-drop-as-china-lockdowns-trigger-growth-fears/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Investors slightly scaled back their bets on the pace of Fed interest rate rises on Monday, but analysts stressed that inflation fears would continue to weigh on markets over the longer term after US inflation soared to a four-decade high of 8.5 per cent
- [Beige Book: More Inflation, More Rate Hikes](https://datatrekresearch.com/beige-book-more-inflation-more-rate-hikes/): The market continues to discount ever more aggressive US monetary policy and today was no different after the release of the Fed’s latest Beige Book, which showed elevated inflation becoming further entrenched. We’ve reviewed this report the day it comes out two weeks before each Fed meeting for over half a decade because it provides a
- [Fed Funds, Sector Currency Exposure, Big Non-Energy Winners](https://datatrekresearch.com/fed-funds-sector-currency-exposure-big-non-energy-winners/): Four “Data” topics today: Topic #1: Ahead of tomorrow’s Beige Book report, a brief update on what Fed Funds Futures are predicting for US monetary policy at upcoming FOMC meetings: The probability of a 50 basis point hike at the May 4th meeting stands at 93 percent. The remaining odds (7 pct) are for just
- [WSJ: "Crypto Stocks Perform Worse Than Cryptocurrencies"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-crypto-stocks-perform-worse-than-cryptocurrencies/): Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "The divergence between cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency companies shouldn’t be a surprise, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of research firm DataTrek. There is always some difference between the value of an asset and the companies that build businesses around that asset, he said. Bitcoin and
- [NASDAQ Market Cycles](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-market-cycles/): When will US tech stocks start working again? We are asking this question today because, over the last year, the NASDAQ Composite is down 5 percent and the QQQs (NASDAQ 100) are down 1 percent over the same period. These are not the sorts of returns one expects from disruptive tech companies. But … Here we
- [US Inflation Expectations, Online Shopping Loses Share](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-inflation-expectations-online-shopping-loses-share/): Two “Data” items today: #1: There’s some chatter around that US inflation may have peaked with the March CPI report’s 8.5 percent reading. Fair enough, in that the comparisons to last year get harder over the next few months and that should allow for lower inflation readings. For example, in March 2021 CPI inflation was 2.7
- [Barron's: "What We Learned at the New York Auto Show"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-what-we-learned-at-the-new-york-auto-show/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "At the auto show, “there is a fascinating dichotomy between the products that make all the money [and] the vehicles that need to make all the money in 10 years,” says DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas, a former auto analyst. The products that make money now are trucks. The
- [Bloomberg: "Online Traders Plow Into Twitter With Bet on the Power of Musk"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-online-traders-plow-into-twitter-with-bet-on-the-power-of-musk/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Retail traders had already fueled record Twitter trading volume on April 4, the day Musk reported his 9% stake in the company. As of the end of trading Wednesday, they had pushed $423.9 million into the stock since the disclosure. “Retail will follow Elon to the
- [PPI as CPI Predictor, S&P Returns, Money Flows](https://datatrekresearch.com/ppi-as-cpi-predictor-sp-returns-money-flows/): Three items for “Data” today: Topic #1: Today’s US Producer Price Index inflation report, and whether PPI inflation really leads Consumer Price Index inflation. We’ll start with the question of how much today’s 11.2 percent PPI inflation deserves to be called a “record”. Strictly speaking, yes, it is the highest reading in the history of the
- [Inflation and Recession, Rate Hike Odds, US Office Occupancy](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-and-recession-rate-hike-odds-us-office-occupancy/): Two items for “Data” today: Topic #1: Today’s US Consumer Price Index report and its effect on market expectations for future Federal Reserve monetary policy as well as an analysis of whether inflation causes recession. Four points here: First, the highlight reel: Headline CPI inflation for March came in at 8.5 percent, slightly higher than economists’
- [Barron's: "A Lesson About Wealth From Elon Musk, the World’s Richest Human"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-a-lesson-about-wealth-from-elon-musk-the-worlds-richest-human/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Elon Musk is worth a cool $274 billion. Now, a former auto analyst-turned-market researcher has broken down the number to show how the Tesla CEO amassed such a mind-boggling fortune—and drives home the point that the huge number is really no huge surprise. Musk stepped off
- [What’s Wrong With US Small Caps?](https://datatrekresearch.com/whats-wrong-with-us-small-caps-2/): We are dedicating today’s “Data” section to US small caps because year-to-date returns here are, for lack of a better word, awful. The Russell 2000 is down 11.7 percent so far in 2022. That’s far worse than the S&P 500 (-7.4 pct) or non-US equities (MSCI All-World ex-US Index -7.8 pct). Has the Russell gotten cheap
- [Dollar Strength, Fed Funds Futures, Q1 Earnings Season](https://datatrekresearch.com/dollar-strength-fed-funds-futures-q1-earnings-season/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The dollar’s continued strength versus the euro, yen, and pound. Consider the following charts: First, here is the US dollar-euro exchange rate over the last 5 years (CNBC.com chart). At 1.09 to the dollar today, the euro is almost back to the February – May lows around the 2020 pandemic crisis.
- [Hot US Labor Market, Inverted Yield Curve](https://datatrekresearch.com/hot-us-labor-market-inverted-yield-curve/): Two items for our “Data” section today. Topic #1: Friday’s US Employment Situation report was a case study in hot labor markets. Three points on that theme: First, March’s unemployment rate of 3.6 percent is among the lowest readings in the last 60 years. The chart below shows US unemployment from 1960 to the present. As noted,
- [Q1 2022 Equity Returns: Results and Comments](https://datatrekresearch.com/q1-2022-equity-returns-results-and-comments/): We have a wrap-up of global, regional, and country-specific equity market price returns (i.e., not including dividends) for Q1 2022 and over the last 12 months. All the data below reflects dollar-based returns. Global/regional Q1 and 1-year returns: MSCI All-Country World Index: -5.7 percent Q1, +4.9 percent 1-year MSCI All-Country ex-US Index: -6.0 pct Q1, -5.3
- [VIX “Buy” Signals, Fund Flows, US/EU Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/vix-buy-signals-fund-flows-us-eu-inflation/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: US mutual fund and ETF investors (retail and small institutions) continue to buy equities and gold but sell bonds. The data here is from the Investment Company Institute (link below) for the week ending March 23rd: US equity inflows totaled $2.3 billion last week. That is down noticeably from the
- [Yahoo Finance: "With inflation running hot, Google searches for food stamps remain elevated"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-with-inflation-running-hot-google-searches-for-food-stamps-remain-elevated/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Bruising levels of inflation from rent to gas to food continues to hit many American households hard, so hard it may be pushing a new group of the population into food stamps, hints new data. Google search volumes are still running 100% higher than pre-pandemic levels (see chart
- [MarketWatch: "‘The dam finally broke’: 10-year Treasury yields spike to breach top of downward trend channel seen since mid-1980s, says Deutsche Bank"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-dam-finally-broke-10-year-treasury-yields-spike-to-breach-top-of-downward-trend-channel-seen-since-mid-1980s-says-deutsche-bank/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Despite the spike higher in 10-year Treasury yields, “real interest rates remain solidly negative,” according to a DataTrek Research note emailed Monday morning. In 2013, a “tantrum” in the bond market “pushed real rates from similar levels to positive over the course of a month,” DataTrek
- [MarketWatch: "Is this it? More than half of workers still are not returning to office"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-is-this-it-more-than-half-of-workers-still-are-not-returning-to-office/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said the office occupancy data is consistent with employees having the upper hand in the job market. “Many businesses want their workers back in the office but know that pushing the issue risks increasing labor force turnover. Many workers want
- [Disruptive Innovation: Dos and Don’ts](https://datatrekresearch.com/disruptive-innovation-dos-and-donts/): As we discussed in yesterday’s “Markets” section, Q1 2022 has been a rollercoaster ride for global equity markets, and nowhere more so than in Technology stocks: The S&P 500 Tech sector was down 19 percent from the start of 2022 to the lows on March 14th; now, it’s only down 6 percent on the year.
- [Treasury Yield Curves, S&P Valuation, Food Stamps](https://datatrekresearch.com/treasury-yield-curves-sp-valuation-food-stamps/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: 5-year US Treasuries now yield more than 10-year Treasuries (2.56 versus 2.47 percent, 9 basis points), which some market observers are calling out as a sign of an impending US economic contraction. The more common yield curve-related recession indicators are the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries and the spread
- [Q1 US Corporate Earnings, 50 vs. 75 bps FOMC Moves](https://datatrekresearch.com/q1-us-corporate-earnings-50-vs-75-bps-fomc-moves/): Two “Data” items today: Topic #1: Wall Street analysts’ Q1 2022 earnings expectations for the S&P 500. Earnings season begins in just over 2 weeks here in the US. Also, there is no FOMC meeting in April (the next one is on May 4th) so earnings will have a shot at holding the market’s attention through
- [Barron's: "Will Americans Buy Millions of Teslas and Other EVs? One Analyst Says It’s a Hard Sell."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-will-americans-buy-millions-of-teslas-and-other-evs-one-analyst-says-its-a-hard-sell/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Will Americans buy millions of electric vehicles in the coming few years? That is the big question for the auto industry. Datatrek Research founder, and former auto analyst, Nicholas Colas tackled it in a Wednesday research note, and he isn’t so sure lofty EV goals will be met. The market
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on The Compound & Friends w/ Josh Brown](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-the-compound-friends-w-josh-brown/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on The Compound & Friends with Josh Brown and Michael Batnick. They discussed everything from cryptos, driverless vehicles and investor confidence to bank stocks and what it was like for Nick to work with billionaire investor and Met's owner Steve Cohen. Watch it here on YouTube!
- [Stagflation Money Flows, Fed Funds & Recession](https://datatrekresearch.com/stagflation-money-flows-fed-funds-recession/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Another week of “stagflation playbook” mutual and exchange traded fund money flows. The data here is from the Investment Company Institute, through the week ending March 16th, 2021 (link below): Fund investors added $15.5 billion to their US equity fund holdings last week, notable since those inflows coincide with the
- [The Future of EVs in the US](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-future-of-evs-in-the-us/): I (Nick) recently chatted with a longtime friend who works in the auto industry for a well known global brand; (I can’t be more specific than that, for obvious reasons). Since I have followed the sector for +30 years as a buy- and sell-side analyst, we had a lot to discuss. The big, chunky question neither
- [Bloomberg: "Stocks as Inflation Hedge Is New Catch-All Narrative for Market Rally"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-stocks-as-inflation-hedge-is-new-catch-all-narrative-for-market-rally/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "A look back at the 1970s and early ’80s inflationary period gives clues on the divergence. Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, found that inflation ran at 159% during that period, while a home-prices index rose by the same amount. Yet the S&P 500 returned an
- [Earnings Growth by Sector, Powell Comments](https://datatrekresearch.com/earnings-growth-by-sector-powell-comments/): Two items for “Data” today: Topic #1: Which S&P 500 sectors have the best chance to show earnings growth this year? In aggregate, Wall Street analysts expect the index to show 9.3 percent bottom line growth versus 2021. A good number – if it comes true – and it’s even better than it looks. At the
- [The +36 VIX US Equity Rally – What Now?](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-36-vix-us-equity-rally-what-now/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The bounce in US large caps since the +36 CBOE VIX Index close on March 7th (36.5, to be exact). There are 3 VIX levels where we recommend adding to US equity positions: 36, 44 and 52. These are, respectively, 2, 3 and 4 standard deviations (8 points) from the
- [Q1 GDP, US Gasoline Usage, Retail Trader Flows](https://datatrekresearch.com/q1-gdp-us-gasoline-usage-retail-trader-flows/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 2022 is out. We prefer this algorithmic model to human economists for 2 reasons. First, it tends to be more accurate. Second, the Atlanta Fed routinely provides updates based on the model’s readings of the latest data. It is as close to
- [FOMC Decision and Powell Presser, By the Numbers](https://datatrekresearch.com/fomc-decision-and-powell-presser-by-the-numbers/): For “Data” we have 3 points about today’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Chair Powell press conference. #1: Equity markets were relieved that Chair Powell did not put much emphasis on moving Fed Funds by 50 basis points at an FOMC meeting this year. To paraphrase his comment, “there were 7 meetings scheduled for this
- [WSJ: "Chinese Stocks Sink Further as Challenges Mount"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-chinese-stocks-sink-further-as-challenges-mount/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Shares of internet companies have been especially punished. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF fell 12% on Monday, its biggest one-day fall on record, to the lowest level since it started trading in 2013, according to FactSet data. It edged higher 3.6% in recent
- [US Stock and Real Estate Values During Stagflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-stock-and-real-estate-values-during-stagflation/): Today we will dedicate our “Data” section to stagflation, with 3 points on the history of the phenomenon and how US stocks and real estate have done when it occurs: #1: Definition and historical analysis. Stagflation is a portmanteau word, combining “stagnation” and “inflation”. It signifies the unusual combination of fast-rising prices and either slowly growing or
- [Oil Prices/Energy Stock Correlations, Rate Expectations](https://datatrekresearch.com/oil-prices-energy-stock-correlations-rate-expectations/): Two “Data” items today: Topic #1: The correlation between WTI oil prices and price returns for the S&P large cap Energy sector (symbol: XLE). Let’s start with some background data: Since 2010, the 50-day correlation between daily changes in WTI crude prices and daily returns for the S&P 500 Energy sector has averaged 0.59. That is
- [Inflation Expectations & Yields, US Corp Earnings](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-expectations-yields-us-corp-earnings/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Market-based expectations for future US inflation have broken out to new highs in the last 10 days. Using data from the TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) market back to its start in 2003: At present, TIPS are pricing 3.52 percent annual inflation for the next 5 years and 2.94 percent
- [Today’s CPI Report in A Historical Perspective](https://datatrekresearch.com/todays-cpi-report-in-a-historical-perspective/): For “Data” we will put today’s US Consumer Price Index report into a long run historical perspective: #1: First up is headline CPI inflation, which came in at +7.9 percent today. The chart below goes back to 1948 and shows the following: February’s reading is the highest since January 1982’s +8.3 percent. Inflation has come on strong
- [AMZN, GOOG Stock Splits: Why?](https://datatrekresearch.com/amzn-goog-stock-splits-why/): For several years in the 2010s we worked for a fellow who had been a very senior manager at the NASDAQ before becoming the CEO of our firm. One day we got to talking about stock splits and why none of the NASDAQ’s most prominent tech companies seemed interested in doing them. This was, and remains,
- [CNBC Interview w/ DataTrek's Nick Colas](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-interview-w-datatreks-nick-colas/): CNBC interviewed DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas on everything from why it's not time to short energy stocks to when oil prices signal a recession. Watch Nick's interview here on CNBC!
- [Update: ARKK 2022 vs NASDAQ 2000](https://datatrekresearch.com/update-arkk-2022-vs-nasdaq-2000/): Today we have an update on our comparison of Cathie Wood’s widely followed ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) to the NASDAQ in the early 2000s. We use ARKK as a general benchmark for speculative tech names. For example, here are ARKK’s current top 10 holdings to give you an idea of the types of public companies it
- [Never Has The Fed Ever: Rate Hikes, +36 VIX](https://datatrekresearch.com/never-has-the-fed-ever-rate-hikes-36-vix/): Has the Federal Reserve ever started a rate tightening cycle with US equities this choppy? The short answer is a resounding “No”, based on the 30-day expected volatility of the S&P 500, as measured by the CBOE VIX Index since it was created in 1990. The FOMC’s next monetary policy decision is just 7 trading days
- [Q122 S&P Earnings, Energy Earnings/Oil Prices, US Wage Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/q122-sp-earnings-energy-earnings-oil-prices-us-wage-inflation/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Wall Street analysts’ S&P 500 downward earnings estimate revisions for Q1 2022. As we discussed last Sunday, the Street has been reducing its aggregate expectations for index earnings this quarter. We’re not talking big cuts, mind you … only 1.2 percent thus far. But how does that trend compare to
- [NY Fed Data: Global Supply Chain Barely Improving](https://datatrekresearch.com/ny-fed-data-global-supply-chain-barely-improving/): Two “Data” items today: Topic #1: The NY Fed was out today with an update to its Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. This reading is based on actual international shipping costs as well as components from national Purchasing Managers Surveys across the world’s major industrialized economies. There is a link to the data below, and as
- [Ford’s EV “Not-A-Spinoff”](https://datatrekresearch.com/fords-ev-not-a-spinoff/): Nick here, with a discussion of Ford’s announcement today that it will restructure its global automotive business into two operations. It is not anything close to the electric vehicle operations spinoff we and many investors were hoping for. Still, in the conservative world of the Ford Motor Company and the auto industry generally, it still counts
- [Barron's: "Oil’s Spike Is Inflationary. Will It Become Recessionary?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-oils-spike-is-inflationary-will-it-become-recessionary/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "“History shows that a 100% increase in oil prices over a year usually triggers a recession (1990, 2000, 2008). We’re not quite there yet, but we are getting closer by the day,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note on Wednesday. The price increases
- [Energy Stocks: Past, Present and Future](https://datatrekresearch.com/energy-stocks-past-present-and-future/): Today’s Data section is all about the US Energy equity sector, with 3 points about large and small cap stocks in this space. #1: Starting with a telling fact which also helps frame the broader discussion: from 2012 to 2021, the US large cap Energy sector was either the worst or second-worst performing group in
- [March S&P Outlook After Bad Start](https://datatrekresearch.com/march-sp-outlook-after-bad-start/): The S&P 500 has officially ended the first two months of the year in negative territory, a historically uncommon occurrence. So what does that mean for the balance of the year? Three points: #1: The S&P has ended lower in BOTH January and February during fewer than a quarter (23 percent) of years since 1980 through
- [Q1 S&P Estimates Cuts, Fed Funds, Tax Refund Data](https://datatrekresearch.com/q1-sp-estimates-cuts-fed-funds-tax-refund-data/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Starting off on a positive point, US tax refund season is going very well. These remittances are often the largest lump sum payments US households receive in a given year. Their size and timing can affect consumer spending throughout the first half, and we’ve seen these payments skew macro data
- [S&P 500: What Happens After Bad Start](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-500-what-happens-after-bad-start/): After such a volatile trading session and with the S&P 500 down 10.0 percent year-to-date, today we want to reprise our work on how US equities tend to perform during poor returning years. We have three points on this topic: #1: History shows down Januarys (like this year), on average, correlate to subpar returns for BOTH
- [Recessions & Inflation, Fund Flows, RTO Still Slow](https://datatrekresearch.com/recessions-inflation-fund-flows-rto-still-slow/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The most straightforward way to bring down US inflation is to have a recession. That’s an awkward observation for a few reasons. First, no one wants to see the American economy contract, especially after the challenges of the last 2 years. Second, even with the S&P 500 down 11 percent
- [Fed Funds, S&P Earnings, Russian Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/fed-funds-sp-earnings-russian-stocks/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: The latest Fed Funds Futures-based probabilities for FOMC interest rate policy this year (link to CME FedWatch tool below): For the upcoming March 16th meeting, Futures still give 33 percent odds of a 50 basis point rate hike. That is higher than Friday’s 22 percent reading, remarkable given the
- [Where is Fair Value on the S&P 500?](https://datatrekresearch.com/where-is-fair-value-on-the-sp-500/): Today was a bad one for US stocks and the close was especially troublesome, so let’s talk about what’s going on and what to do from here. Two points: #1: Based on the macro inputs that have moved markets this year, this should not have been a down 2 percent day on the S&P 500. That’s
- [US Wage Growth: No Signs of Cooling](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-wage-growth-no-signs-of-cooling/): US price inflation may capture the most attention in terms of upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions, but wage growth continues to gain momentum and shows no signs of slowing down. That’s flashing a warning sign to central bankers, as today’s minutes from the last FOMC meeting highlight: “Various participants cited other developments that had the potential
- [Bloomberg: "Cathie Wood’s ARKK Is a Year From Its Peak and Still Struggling"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-cathie-woods-arkk-is-a-year-from-its-peak-and-still-struggling/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Parallels with that era and the dot-com bust that followed are increasingly used in discussions of ARKK because its price chart is eerily similar to that of the Nasdaq index of tech stocks more than two decades ago. “Today marks the 253rd trading day from ARKK’s
- [BI: "Ark Invest's 54% decline mirrors the trajectory of the Nasdaq as the dot-com bubble burst — and data suggests more downside is coming, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bi-ark-invests-54-decline-mirrors-the-trajectory-of-the-nasdaq-as-the-dot-com-bubble-burst-and-data-suggests-more-downside-is-coming-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The 54% decline in Ark Invest's flagship ETF over the past year looks very similar to the unwind of the Nasdaq during early 2000's dot-com bust, according to DataTrek Research. The firm overlaid the performance of ARK Invest's Disruptive Innovation ETF since its February 12, 2021 peak with
- [How Modestly Positive S&P Years Work](https://datatrekresearch.com/how-modestly-positive-sp-years-work/): Even after today’s rally, the S&P 500 is still down 6.2 percent year-to-date, so will US large caps be able to squeeze out a gain this year? There’s still a long way to go in 2022, but the S&P just registered 3 straight years of positive double-digit total returns: 28.5 pct in 2021, 18.0 pct in
- [Comparing ARKK to the NASDAQ from 2000 - 2002](https://datatrekresearch.com/comparing-arkk-to-the-nasdaq-from-2000-2002/): Today marks the 1-year anniversary of the all-time high in Cathie Wood’s widely followed ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). We mention this fund not to pick on its performance over the last year (down 54 percent), but rather to use it as a general benchmark for speculative tech names and what it may signal for this theme
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas Interview w/ Seeking Alpha](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-interview-w-seeking-alpha/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Seeking Alpha's show, The Weekend Bite, discussing everything from monetary policy and corporate earnings to his outlook on oil and US equities. Nick's segment starts at the 10:10 mark, which you can watch here.
- [Updates on US Corporate Earnings, Fed Funds Odds](https://datatrekresearch.com/updates-on-us-corporate-earnings-fed-funds-odds/): Two “Data” topics today: Issue #1: An update on S&P 500 corporate earnings reports and expectations. (Data courtesy of FactSet, link to full report below.) First, here is an update on how Q4 earnings season is progressing, with 72 percent of S&P companies having reported as of Friday: 77 percent of companies have beaten Wall Street
- [Too Late to Sell, Too Early to Buy?](https://datatrekresearch.com/too-late-to-sell-too-early-to-buy/): Two points about today’s dreadful market action: #1: The hotter-than-expected CPI report (headline +7.5 percent) caused a major rethink in the Fed Funds Futures market about the likeliest path of rate policy this year: The odds of a 50 basis point hike in March rose from 24 percent yesterday to 85 pct today. Reminder: the
- [Fed Funds Odds, Recent College Grad Employment](https://datatrekresearch.com/fed-funds-odds-recent-college-grad-employment/): Published 2/10/22 Two “Data” topics today: #1: An update on what Fed Funds Futures are predicting for 2022 rate policy. Three points on this: First, the odds of a 50 basis point liftoff hike at the March meeting remain well in the range of “yes, they may actually do that”, at 27 percent. As we’ve noted in
- [Rate Cycles & Earnings Growth, Russell 2000 Update](https://datatrekresearch.com/rate-cycles-earnings-growth-russell-2000-update/): Two “Data” items today: Topic #1: S&P 500 earnings growth when the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates. In last night’s report we noted that the crux of the positive case for US stocks is strong corporate earnings. But can S&P companies continue to grow their bottom lines if the Fed starts to hike rates? Here
- [EZ Taper Tantrum, Gold Fund Flows, Used Cars](https://datatrekresearch.com/ez-taper-tantrum-gold-fund-flows-used-cars/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: European sovereign debt is having a bit of a “Taper Tantrum”. The European Central Bank is treading a similar path to the US Federal Reserve, if at a somewhat slower pace. Last Thursday, President Lagarde refused to rule out hiking interest rates this year. Over the weekend the Dutch central
- [CNBC: "What fear of a 50-basis point Fed rate hike says about future stock market volatility"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-what-fear-of-a-50-basis-point-fed-rate-hike-says-about-future-stock-market-volatility/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "History says the Fed leaves 50 basis point moves (or greater) for the middle to end of a tightening cycle, but remember that Chair Powell has explicitly said the current environment is different from the past,” DataTrek Research’s Colas wrote in a recent analysis. “Futures are putting
- [US Earnings Season Half Time, Fed Fund Policy Odds](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-earnings-season-half-time-fed-fund-policy-odds/): Two “Data” items today: Topic #1: US corporate earnings, with just over half (56 percent) of S&P 500 companies having reported Q4 2021 results. Three points here, using FactSet’s latest data (link below): First, here is the latest report card for Q4 results-to-date: 76 percent of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten Wall Street earnings estimates.
- [Facebook Thursday and Marlboro Friday](https://datatrekresearch.com/facebook-thursday-and-marlboro-friday/): Three thoughts about Facebook/Meta’s dramatic 26 percent drop today: #1: Scouring our memory for analogous surprising declines in market-leading stocks, we recalled “Marlboro Friday”. Back in 1993, Philip Morris was a premier US large cap growth stock. It had everything investors look for: strong margins, a stable base of repeat customers, and excellent international growth. The
- [Volcker’s Legacy, Powell’s Future](https://datatrekresearch.com/volckers-legacy-powells-future/): Today’s Data section is a bit more of a “Story Time”, but the subject – inflation and US central bank policy – is still very much a numbers-based analysis. We want to begin with a Paul Volcker (Fed Chair from 1979 to 1987) quote from an interview he gave in 2000. When asked why inflation was
- [JOLTS: Hot Wages, Slow Jobs Growth](https://datatrekresearch.com/jolts-hot-wages-slow-jobs-growth/): Fed Funds Futures have grown more aggressive in discounting +5 rate hikes this year and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) out today helps explain why. The difference between job openings versus unemployed workers continues to widen to unprecedented levels. Fed Chair Powell highlighted this imbalance when describing the US labor market as being
- [January Indicator: Update for February Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/january-indicator-update-for-february-returns/): The S&P 500 finished January down 5.3 pct, one of the 5 worst performances for this month since 1980. As we continue to note, that’s one cautionary sign for 2022 because history shows January’s performance is generally indicative of rest-of-year returns. Here’s a quick review of the data: As a baseline, the S&P’s average January return
- [US Rate Policy History, Q1 Earnings Est Lower](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-rate-policy-history-q1-earnings-est-lower/): Published 1/30/22 Two “Data” items today: Topic #1: Two points about what Fed Funds Futures are saying about US monetary policy in 2022: First: the odds of a 50 basis point increase at the March meeting stands at 9 percent, up from 5 pct a week ago and 4 percent a month ago. On the
- [Crain's NY Business Interview with DataTrek's Nick Colas](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-business-interview-with-datatreks-nick-colas/): Crain's New York Business interviewed DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas on everything from his bull case for US equities to his best sector picks for 2022. Here's an excerpt from the interview with Nick's thoughts on Bitcoin: "I think of it this way: People have lost money when the price of bitcoin fell or their wallets
- [Yahoo Finance: "Stocks stumble, yields jump on rates outlook; oil rallies"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-stocks-stumble-yields-jump-on-rates-outlook-oil-rallies/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "We are now entering a period where the Federal Reserve will engage in a never-before-seen experiment: raising interest rates off zero and reducing the size of its balance sheet in the same year," said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. "The market is still left
- [Bloomberg Quint: "Now It’s Apple’s Turn to Try and Boost Tech Stocks After Rout"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-quint-now-its-apples-turn-to-try-and-boost-tech-stocks-after-rout/): Excerpt from Bloomberg Quint quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "With predictions for rising interest rates putting pressure on valuations, it’s critical that technology companies beat earnings estimates that are rising, according to DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. “Flat/middling earnings revisions is not enough".... Read the full article here on Bloomberg Quint!
- [Oil Prices, Two US Recession Indicators](https://datatrekresearch.com/oil-prices-two-us-recession-indicators/): Three “Data” items today: #1: WTI crude prices remain strong at $87/barrel, but with all the talk about inflation recently we wondered how that price compares to inflation-adjusted oil prices from past cycles. Here’s the answer: Right after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, oil prices spiked to $40/barrel – a level they had
- [Rate Hike Odds, Office Occupancy, Fund Flows](https://datatrekresearch.com/rate-hike-odds-office-occupancy-fund-flows/): Three Data items today, 1 long and 2 quite brief: #1: Chair Powell’s press conference had the effect we suspect he wanted, namely to nudge capital markets into discounting a more aggressive pace of monetary policy tightening. Here is how that played out in Fed Funds Futures: March meeting rate expectations: The odds of a 25
- [Yahoo Finance: "Big Tech unlikely to see selling relief despite Q4 earnings"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-big-tech-unlikely-to-see-selling-relief-despite-q4-earnings/): Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek Research: ... "And although Microsoft (MSFT) on Tuesday bucked a trend of lackluster fourth quarter results, DataTrek Research thinks a couple of factors are sending the popular sector into a downward spiral, which aren't likely to be offset by encouraging earnings. That could spell bad news for Meta (FB), Google (GOOG), Tesla
- [Yahoo Finance: "Stocks plunge as investors await Fed policy-setting meeting"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-stocks-plunge-as-investors-await-fed-policy-setting-meeting/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek Research: .... "The CBOE volatility index, or VIX, closed Monday at about 29.90 after crossing above 37 in intraday trading, its highest level since November 2020. In their newsletter, Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research sounded the alarm on recent jumps by the so-called “fear gauge.” The
- [Barron's: "Looking For Cover During Market Selloff? Here Are Some Options."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-looking-for-cover-during-market-selloff-here-are-some-options/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Still unclear is whether this is the beginning of a bigger swoon. Retail investors, for example, appeared to see Monday’s drop as a buying opportunity, with DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas noting Fidelity’s data of most-traded stocks like Tesla and Apple seeing twice the buys than sells. But Barclays U.S. equity strategist
- [Bloomberg: "Retail Dip-Buyers Get Whiplashed Big Time by Historic Volatility"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-retail-dip-buyers-get-whiplashed-big-time-by-historic-volatility/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "To Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, the day-trading crowd still remains conspiciously bullish. He notes elevated buying interest Monday in stocks from Tesla Inc. to ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ), a fund that aims to treble the daily performance of the Nasdaq 100. “We’ve seen too
- [NASDAQ 2000 Bubble Comp](https://datatrekresearch.com/nasdaq-2000-bubble-comp/): How did the NASDAQ unravel in 2000 – 2002? The recent swoon in US Tech names is drawing comparisons to the bursting of the Internet 1.0 dot com bubble. Let’s see how apt a comparison that really is. The chart below shows 5 datapoints related to the NASDAQ melt up, melt down, and eventual recovery from
- [January Indicator: An Update](https://datatrekresearch.com/january-indicator-an-update/): The S&P 500 is down 7.5 percent so far in January, the second worst performance for this month since 1980. That’s a bad omen for 2022, because history shows January’s performance is generally indicative of rest-of-year returns: As a baseline, the S&P 500 has been up 1.0 pct on average in January since 1980. The S&P
- [WSJ: "Stocks Fall After Giving Up Early Gains"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-stocks-fall-after-giving-up-early-gains/): Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Whenever we see equities churn lower, as they have this year, we are mindful that the risk of a meltdown grows rather than diminishes,” said Nicholas Colas, the founder of analytics firm DataTrek Research".... Read the full article here in the Wall Street
- [MarketWatch: "Stock-market investors can’t count on the’Fed put’ — Why policy makers aren’t seen rushing to rescue"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-stock-market-investors-cant-count-on-thefed-put-why-policy-makers-arent-seen-rushing-to-rescue/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "But this time around, not only is inflation running at a roughly 40-year high, unemployment sits at 3.9% and the economy appears relatively resilient thanks to solid consumer balance sheets, analysts said. “Put another way: until we get a further selloff in risk assets, the Fed
- [CNBC: "The stock market slide is unlikely to budge the Fed from tightening"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-the-stock-market-slide-is-unlikely-to-budge-the-fed-from-tightening/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "By any measure as the Fed looks to assess capital markets stress ... we are nowhere near the same point as in 2018 where the central bank reconsidered its monetary policy stance,” DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas wrote in his daily note".... Read the full article here
- [Yahoo Finance: "Stocks fall ahead of a packed week of earnings, Fed meeting"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-stocks-fall-ahead-of-a-packed-week-of-earnings-fed-meeting/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "And the Fed is unlikely to be deterred from moving in this more hawkish direction even in the wake of recent volatility across markets, some strategists suggested. "Until we get a further selloff in risk assets, the Fed will simply not be convinced that raising
- [Market Discussion, Recent Crash History, BBB Spreads](https://datatrekresearch.com/market-discussion-recent-crash-history-bbb-spreads/): Three “Data” items today: Topic #1: Friday’s market action in the context of our VIX playbook: The VIX closed at 28.9, right on top of the 28 level we’ve been telling you is significant since it is 1 standard deviation (8 points) away from the long-run mean (20). That is the highest close for the
- [10-Year Yield Target, Vol Playbook Update, Energy Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/10-year-yield-target-vol-playbook-update-energy-stocks/): Nick here, with a quick note for clients: Jessica is temporarily indisposed with a really nasty flu. Since she is the one who makes the reports look so good, for the next few days our notes will appear a bit more spartan. We will also be running our “holiday format”, which condenses “Markets”, “Data”, and
- [Small Cap/Large Cap Sectors, Chinese Yuan](https://datatrekresearch.com/small-cap-large-cap-sectors-chinese-yuan/): Two “Data” items today, but first a quick comment about today’s market action. The S&P 500 closed on the lows of the day and the year to date. The Russell 2000 just avoided closing at the lows of the day, but it did make a new YTD low. Importantly, 10-year Treasury yields declined as the day
- [S&P 500 Fair Value, Inflation Expectations](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-500-fair-value-inflation-expectations/): Three “Data” topics today: #1: What is fair value for the S&P 500 if 10-year Treasury yields go to 2 – 3 percent? Our answer, based on recent historical data: 10-years reliably yielded 2 – 3 percent from 2016 – 2019. S&P 500 valuations during that period were as low at 14x (during the December 2018
- [Negative Earnings Guidance, Jobs Report](https://datatrekresearch.com/negative-earnings-guidance-jobs-report/): Two “Data” items today: #1: S&P 500 corporate earnings guidance as we kick off Q4 earnings season this week. Every quarter for the last 5 years about one-fifth of the companies (100 or so) in the index have provided and updated earnings guidance about their current quarter financial results. On average, these announcements have been bad
- [Volatility Playbook, Fed Runoff History](https://datatrekresearch.com/volatility-playbook-fed-runoff-history/): An eventful day yesterday (and not in a good way) in US equity markets, so for “Data” we have both some thoughts on how to trade the current environment and, well, data… Three points: #1: When we run into a choppy spell for stock prices, we’re always mindful of the old saying that “Markets crash
- [JOLTing American Labor Productivity](https://datatrekresearch.com/jolting-american-labor-productivity/): The latest US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey was out today for the month of November 2021. Even though this data is a month behind the more widely watched Jobs Report, we always review it because it gives a unique take on the state of the US labor market. On top of that, it was
- [So Goes January, So Goes the Year](https://datatrekresearch.com/so-goes-january-so-goes-the-year/): Can January’s US equity market performance tell us something about rest of year returns? We ran the data, but first here are some background points on this idea: There’s an old Wall Street adage that the stock market’s performance during the first 5 trading days or month of a year can predict whether the entire year
- [2021 Performance: A Year in Review](https://datatrekresearch.com/2021-performance-a-year-in-review/): For “Data” today we have a 2021 year-end rap up of global equity performance as well as a reminder of what we like going into 2022. All returns are price-only (no dividends) and dollar-based. Starting off with whole-world, regional and US major markets: MSCI All-World Equity Index: +16.6 percent MSCI All-World ex-US Equity Index: +4.8 pct
- [MarketWatch: "This fund driven by artificial intelligence is ditching big tech. Here’s what it’s doing instead."](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-this-fund-driven-by-artificial-intelligence-is-ditching-big-tech-heres-what-its-doing-instead/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The artificial-intelligence Powered Equity ETF AIEQ, -0.65% seems to have caught on. It’s an exchange-traded fund that uses IBM Watson to pick stocks, and now it doesn’t have any of the megacap tech giants in its top 10 holdings. Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, points out that as
- [20-Year S&P Returns, Full Price Consumers, AIEQ](https://datatrekresearch.com/20-year-sp-returns-full-price-consumers-aieq/): Three items today, still in our holiday week-shortened format: 1: What will the S&P 500 return over the next 20 years? One might be tempted to say, “11 percent annually”, since that is the average annual total return for the index back to 1928. Put into the simplest framework this means that, for every $100 invested
- [Should You Sell on Friday?](https://datatrekresearch.com/should-you-sell-on-friday/): Four items for your consideration today, still in our holiday week-shortened report format: #1: With the S&P 500 up 27.6 pct year-to-date and just 4 trading days left in 2021, what can investors expect for January 2022? History shows the January after a strong year can be a mixed bag. Here is the data: #1: Since
- [Barron's Interview w/ DataTrek's Nick Colas](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-interview-w-datatreks-nick-colas/): Barron's interviewed DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: "Nicholas Colas writes a widely-read morning note for money managers that draws on the New Yorker’s 30-year career on Wall Street, filled with insights gleaned from economic data, market dynamics, investor psychology, and disruptive trends... ....Barron’s talked with Colas about why he still likes U.S. stocks despite inflation, high valuations,
- [CNBC: "The ‘Santa Claus rally’ defined and the chances it occurs this year on Wall Street"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-the-santa-claus-rally-defined-and-the-chances-it-occurs-this-year-on-wall-street/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The bulls’ final piece of ammunition: During the month of December, the S&P 500 tends to peak during the last week or even the last day of the month, according to Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Since 1980, the S&P’s December high happened during the last
- [Reuters: "After another stunning U.S. stock market year, investors wonder how much gas is left"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-after-another-stunning-u-s-stock-market-year-investors-wonder-how-much-gas-is-left/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The S&P 500 has notched three straight years of double-digit returns nine times since 1928, according to Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Gains in the year following such periods have on average been weaker, with the index averaging 8.4%, compared with its overall average total
- [MarketWatch: "Don’t expect stock market volatility to subside in 2022"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-dont-expect-stock-market-volatility-to-subside-in-2022/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Get ready for another year of above average stock-market volatility. According to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, history suggests that the jump in volatility that accompanied the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 is likely to endure well into 2022. “Volatility comes as
- [Business Insider: "The stock market can continue to rise even in the face of rate hikes by the Fed next year, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-stock-market-can-continue-to-rise-even-in-the-face-of-rate-hikes-by-the-fed-next-year-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."Investors have been conditioned to believe that the stock market performs poorly when the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates, as a jump in the cost of capital can hurt the financial profile of long-duration assets like growth stocks. But the data tells a different story. According to DataTrek Research, the
- [Dow's Biggest Gainers, Money Flows & Eurozone "Inflation" Searches](https://datatrekresearch.com/dows-biggest-gainers-money-flows-eurozone-inflation-searches/): Four topics to discuss with you today, in our holiday-period shorter format: #1: We have a deep dive into which stocks have driven the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a healthy double-digit return year-to-date (+16.8 pct). Even though it’s not Wall Street’s go-to US equity performance benchmark and is imperfect due to its price-weighted composition, the
- [Bloomberg: "Tesla Sends S&P 500 Crowd on a Wild Ride of Surges and Crashes"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-tesla-sends-sp-500-crowd-on-a-wild-ride-of-surges-and-crashes/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "When companies get bigger, we tend to think of volatility as declining, since bigger means more stable. But that hasn’t happened with Tesla,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, who compared the company’s gyrations to those of Bitcoin. “Tesla, Bitcoin - they are still call
- [S&P Losers, ESG Returns, US Consumer Trends](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-losers-esg-returns-us-consumer-trends/): Four items to discuss with you today: #1: Every mid-December we publish a list of the year’s worst-performing names in the S&P 500. The point is not to cast stones, but rather to highlight stocks that might be seeing tax loss selling pressure this month. Over the years we’ve seen many investors buy such names in
- [2022 Look Ahead Survey Results, December Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/2022-look-ahead-survey-results-december-returns/): Two topics to discuss with you today: #1: Hard to believe given all the recent volatility, but the S&P 500 is UP for December. Not by a lot, true (1 point, or 0.02 percent), but up nonetheless. The index closed at an easy to remember 4,567 on November 30th, so tracking its progress this month is
- [Wall Street Analysts’ Earnings Estimates, City Unemployment](https://datatrekresearch.com/wall-street-analysts-earnings-estimates-city-unemployment/): Two “Data” items today: #1: The latest color on Wall Street analysts’ S&P 500 earnings revisions, where the news is quite good: As of December 10th (2 Fridays ago), the aggregate of Wall Street analysts’ earnings estimates for the companies of the S&P 500 bubbled up to $51.09/share for Q4 2021 and $52.02/share for Q1
- [Crain's NY Business: "Purging the internet of original sin"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-business-purging-the-internet-of-original-sin/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Andreesen envisions Web3 as a new sort of internet that unbundles Google, Facebook and other tech giants from our lives. “Venture capitalists are funding this vision of a decentralized future with billions of dollars, backing founders that share this very specific view of
- [MarketWatch: "Stock buybacks can keep surging next year after a potential record for 2021, analysts say"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-stock-buybacks-can-keep-surging-next-year-after-a-potential-record-for-2021-analysts-say/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Yet the market expects buybacks next year can rise much higher and “well beyond” the record pace seen during the third quarter, according to a note earlier this week from Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Companies are not buying anywhere near as much stock as they can,”
- [CNBC: "Stocks head for a rare third-straight year of double-digit returns. What happens next?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-stocks-head-for-a-rare-third-straight-year-of-double-digit-returns-what-happens-next/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, noted last week that 2021 will almost certainly be the third straight year of double-digit S&P returns. Such a three-year streak has happened nine times before. In the year following those streaks, the index rose five times and fell four times
- [Yahoo Finance: "Analysts are underestimating the S&P 500 again: DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-analysts-are-underestimating-the-sp-500-again-datatrek/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "With the Q4 2021 earnings season now underway, Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish in regard to the corporate profitability landscape in spite of slowing growth rates. According to DataTrek Research, however, analysts are still underestimating the S&P 500 (^GSPC). “Wall Street analysts have started increasing their
- [Crain's NY Business: "It’s hard to predict, especially about the future"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-business-its-hard-to-predict-especially-about-the-future/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "One of Wall Street’s most insightful analysts, Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research, said the S&P 500 is about to complete a third straight year of double-digit gains. That's unusual. Will it go up again? “The odds of this year’s positive momentum carrying into
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-12/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing why he "sees the recent rise in credit card balances as a good sign for the economy and the markets." Watch it here!
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-11/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing why he "is warning his clients to prepare for one more bout of profit-taking before the year ends." Watch it here!
- [Reuters: "Be like a scout and make that volatility plan"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-be-like-a-scout-and-make-that-volatility-plan/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Co-founder Nicholas Colas is watching for a one-day S&P 500 decline of 3% or more - unheard of in 2019 or early 2020, of course until Feb. 24th’s 3.4% drop. Colas saw that as a sell signal, because along with the benchmark's move the CBOE volatility
- [BI: "The stock market can continue to rise even in the face of rate hikes by the Fed next year, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bi-10-things-before-the-opening-bell/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "According to DataTrek Research, the S&P 500 has only had two losing years since 1990 when the Fed was raising interest rates: a 9% decline in 2000 and a 4% drop in 2018. That leads the firm to believe that investors need not be concerned about the
- [CNBC: "What investors can learn from all the Tesla and Rivian buying and selling"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-what-investors-can-learn-from-all-the-tesla-and-rivian-buying-and-selling/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "CNBC recently spoke with Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research and a former Wall Street auto industry analyst, about what’s going on in the EV space... .... Rivian’s valuation is extremely high, according to Colas. “There is no getting around that. Any time you are talking
- [CNBC: "Millions of people quit their jobs in the ‘Great Resignation.’ Here is why it may not last long"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-millions-of-people-quit-their-jobs-in-the-great-resignation-here-is-why-it-may-not-last-long/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."The numbers also show a jobs market that’s becoming increasingly dynamic. About half of all quits this year have come from leisure and hospitality, an industry under intense pressure from the virus and the associated restrictions and fears that have limited dining and drinking out. However, about
- [Barron's: "GM and Ford Need to Spin Off Their EV Businesses If They Want to Catch Tesla. Here’s Why They Won’t."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-gm-and-ford-need-to-spin-off-their-ev-businesses-if-they-want-to-catch-tesla-heres-why-they-wont/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research’s Nick Colas, a former Wall Street auto analyst, has a provocative idea for how traditional auto makers—including General Motors (ticker: GM) and Ford Motor (F)—can unlock more value: Spinning out their EV businesses as soon as possible... ....“When it was just Tesla with a crazy valuation, they could afford to dismiss
- [CNBC: "For the stock market’s biggest companies, there may never be a better time to break up"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-for-the-stock-markets-biggest-companies-there-may-never-be-a-better-time-to-break-up/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."The current market is making the case for not just spinoffs, but “a re-equitization of corporate assets,” said Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. The number of stocks in the U.S. equity market has been in secular decline since the 1990s, but it seems to have turned the
- [MarketWatch: "The anti-Cathie Wood ETF has landed. Here’s how it’s doing so far"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-anti-cathie-wood-etf-has-landed-heres-how-its-doing-so-far/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "A recent note from the folks at DataTrek highlights that investing based on environmental, social and governance, or ESG, is gathering momentum. On top of that, a number are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index on a year-to-date basis, notes DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe. The iShares MSCI
- [FT: "Government debt yields fall as traders prepare for Fed meeting"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-government-debt-yields-fall-as-traders-prepare-for-fed-meeting/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ....“It is clear markets are pricing in a lot of upside surprises for 2022,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Stock markets were also predicting that Fed rate rises would control inflation, Colas added, “while not causing an economic slowdown".... Read the full article
- [FT: "Tesla’s benchmark heft hurts growth-focused managers as shares soar"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-teslas-benchmark-heft-hurts-growth-focused-managers-as-shares-soar/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, warned that Tesla, like the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, was likely to continue to “march to their own frenetic drummer” for the foreseeable future. “The only reason they are trillion-dollar assets is because they have a 10 per cent chance of
- [FT: "US dollar rises as inflation data revive bets of tighter monetary policy"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-us-dollar-rises-as-inflation-data-revive-bets-of-tighter-monetary-policy/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek Research: ...."Many investors judge stocks to be less affected by inflationary concerns than fixed income-paying debt securities. According to research house DataTrek, during the high inflation period of 1972 to 1980, S&P companies’ profits grew 120 per cent, outpacing an aggregate 110 per cent rise in consumer prices
- [Bloomberg: "Next-Tesla Tag Sends Rivian Above $100 Billion Without Sales"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-next-tesla-tag-sends-rivian-above-100-billion-without-sales/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "“Rivian’s valuation makes it a legitimate option for institutional investors who have previously only had Tesla to play the electric-vehicle space,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note. Colas said some investors cycle through new companies as they go public, selling the “‘old’
- [Crain's NY: "Artificial intelligence investment fund beats the market, putting Wall Street jobs in jeopardy"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-artificial-intelligence-investment-fund-beats-the-market-putting-wall-street-jobs-in-jeopardy/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Its second-largest position is Denbury, an oil and natural gas company with just $4 billion in market capitalization. Another big holding is National Fuel Gas, with a $5 billion market cap. The fund also owns Chevron. “When something isn’t working, it’s quick to
- [Volatility and Market Cap: TSLA, NVDA, MSFT](https://datatrekresearch.com/volatility-and-market-cap-tsla-nvda-msft/): It is a long-established stock market maxim that as valuation increases volatility decreases. Large cap stocks should be less volatile than small caps. An index like the S&P 500, full of multi-billion-dollar market cap companies, should be less volatile than an emerging market country index. To see how well that theory holds up in practice, we
- [Powell Press Conference: Data and Thoughts](https://datatrekresearch.com/powell-press-conference-data-and-thoughts/): The US equity market’s response to today’s FOMC meeting, new Summary of Economic Projections, and Chair press conference was in line with the confidence we have expressed in recent notes. We gave you a playbook in case we were wrong (because hubris and profits never mix), but markets today sighed their collective relief that everything came
- [Fed Day Playbook](https://datatrekresearch.com/fed-day-playbook/): The odds that the Federal Reserve will surprise markets tomorrow with either its decision to accelerate tapering or in its Summary of Economic projections seem very low indeed: Chair Powell previewed the former during Congressional testimony a few weeks ago. Fed Funds Futures priced in a December FOMC “Dot Plot” featuring expectations of 2-3 rate
- [Has the S&P Peaked for the Year?](https://datatrekresearch.com/has-the-sp-peaked-for-the-year/): Did Friday mark this year’s high for the S&P 500? With the index up 24.3 percent year-to-date, that’s the question on most investors’ minds as they consider whether to lighten up and lock in this year’s strong gains or hope for a “Santa Claus” rally into year end. For greater insight into what we should expect
- [Wall Street 2022 S&P Price Targets, CPI Report](https://datatrekresearch.com/wall-street-2022-sp-price-targets-cpi-report/): Two “Data” items today: #1: In their weekly Earnings Insight report, FactSet noted that the aggregate S&P 500 12-month price target based on Wall Street analysts’ single-stock price goals is 5,225, 11 percent higher than Friday’s close. That got us to wondering: how often does this calculation deliver a useful/investable result? To help us answer that
- [US Sector Correlations Signal Caution Warranted](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-sector-correlations-signal-caution-warranted/): We remain cautious on US large cap stocks over the very near term (1-2 weeks) even with the recent snapback rally from the December 1st lows. To be clear, we’re not bearish. It’s just that markets have their own cadence and respecting that fact tends to lead to better investment and trading decisions. Case in point:
- [US Big Tech: Living on Borrowed Time?](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-big-tech-living-on-borrowed-time/): A loyal reader pinged us after last night’s Disruption section, where we outlined Ben Evans’ 2021 year-end lookahead presentation (link below). “Technology”, he very rightly pointed out, is a term we can apply to any innovation that fundamentally changes how humans live. The wheel, the internal combustion engine, air travel … All were disruptive technologies for
- [4th Year of +10 pct Returns for the S&P in 2022?](https://datatrekresearch.com/4th-year-of-10-pct-returns-for-the-sp-in-2022/): With the S&P 500 up a solid 25 percent year-to-date, it will almost certainly deliver a third consecutive year of double-digit returns (2019: +31 pct, 2020: +18 pct). That would mark only the 10th time the index has done so over the past +90 years. There’s good reason for why such sequences are uncommon. Markets discount
- [Google “Pandemic”, Credit Card Balances, Q4 GDP](https://datatrekresearch.com/google-pandemic-credit-card-balances-q4-gdp/): Three “Data” items today: #1: Google search volumes related to the pandemic, both in the US and around the world. The number of online searches has varied considerably over the last 2 years as the illness has ebbed and flowed. We associate declining search volumes with improving consumer/worker confidence and increasing search interest with declining confidence.
- [Wall Street is Cutting Q4 Estimates. Not Good.](https://datatrekresearch.com/wall-street-is-cutting-q4-estimates-not-good/): Three “Data” items today: #1: Wall Street analysts are starting to reduce their Q4 2021 S&P 500 corporate earnings estimates: On November 12th, the Street was at $51.00/share for Q4 S&P earnings. On November 19th, that estimate rose to $51.09/share (+0.2 percent). FactSet (the source of this data, link below) did not publish an update
- [What History Says About December Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-history-says-about-december-returns/): US equities are off to a much choppier start in December than is typical for this month. So, for today’s “Data” section, we’ll look back in history to see what it can tell us about potential S&P 500 price action for the rest of this month and 2021. We will focus on returns since 1980 because
- [Beige Book: More Inflation Equals Faster Tapering](https://datatrekresearch.com/beige-book-more-inflation-equals-faster-tapering/): The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book out today goes a long way of explaining Chair Powell’s change of plans for the FOMC to discuss an accelerated timeframe for its bond purchase tapering at its upcoming December 14-15 meeting. He’s been a vocal proponent of the report since heading the Fed and we’ve seen it influence his views
- [QTD & YTD Asset Performance Review](https://datatrekresearch.com/qtd-ytd-asset-performance-review/): For today’s “Data” section we have a performance review of global equities, looking at both their Q4-to-date returns as well as how they’ve fared so far this year. All data here is dollar-based and reflects only price returns (i.e., ex-dividends). We’ll do this in three sections, to chop up the discussion into manageable chunks, with some
- [Holiday 2021 Consumer Trends](https://datatrekresearch.com/holiday-2021-consumer-trends/): Holiday 2021 is here, and as much as we know the US consumer is strong, it’s still important to track which consumer categories are doing well and which are lagging. The last 20 months have seen a series of surprising twists and turns on this front. The Pandemic Recession was absolutely unique in that it saw
- [Market Volatility Playbook](https://datatrekresearch.com/market-volatility-playbook/): Even if Friday’s equity market selloff (S&P 500 -2.3 percent) came on a light volume day due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, it is still a +2 standard deviation move for the index. As such, it’s worth taking a few minutes to consider 1) what it may mean for future stock market returns and 2) how
- [Global Equity Valuations, BABA, US Wage Growth](https://datatrekresearch.com/global-equity-valuations-baba-us-wage-growth/): #1: October’s US state- and city-level unemployment data continues to show stark regional differences in the American labor market. October’s US national unemployment rate was 4.6 percent. 20 states had less than 4 percent joblessness last month, ranging from Nebraska’s 1.9 pct to Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina at 3.9 percent. A few other states
- [Powell Wins, Bonds/Tech Lose, 1 Percent Days](https://datatrekresearch.com/powell-wins-bonds-tech-lose-1-percent-days/): #1: Fed Chair Powell’s renomination yesterday had a marked effect on market expectations for future rate policy. The chart below, courtesy of CME FedWatch, shows the odds of various rate scenarios at the end of 2022 using Fed Funds Futures prices timestamped at today’s 4pm US equity market close. We’ve noted the change from Friday’s probabilities
- [S&P ex-Big Tech, Profit Margins, Used Car Prices](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-ex-big-tech-profit-margins-used-car-prices/): Four topics today: #1: When does the market finally figure out what the S&P 500 can earn over the next 12 months? The FactSet chart below shows the trailing 1-year history for Wall Street analysts’ aggregate S&P 500 earnings estimate for 2021 (bottom line) and 2022 (top line). Two points on this data: First, analysts’ earnings
- [Apple’s AV Ambitions: The Real Reason Why](https://datatrekresearch.com/apples-av-ambitions-the-real-reason-why/): Earlier today we got a note from Art Cashin, market sage and CNBC regular, asking us for a piece we wrote years ago about autonomous vehicles. Art’s memory is better than either Outlook’s or Apple Mail’s search function, so we had to recreate it for him. The spark behind his request was news (link below) that
- [Full Employment? Ask Young Workers](https://datatrekresearch.com/full-employment-ask-young-workers/): The $64 question for the US labor market is how close are we to full employment in a post-pandemic world? One way we can assess this topic is by looking at the current employment status of younger Americans. This cohort was disproportionately hurt after the Financial Crisis, particularly when it came to underemployment. It took a
- [Breaking up GM and Ford](https://datatrekresearch.com/breaking-up-gm-and-ford/): Regular readers will know that I (Nick) spent the 1990s as the senior auto analyst at First Boston/Credit Suisse. This was long before analysts were prohibited from pitching investment banking business, as they are now. I therefore spent a lot of time – probably 20-30 percent of my day for 9 years straight – working with
- [The Dollar Is Getting Stronger, And That’s OK](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-dollar-is-getting-stronger-and-thats-ok/): With the dollar strengthening over the last few weeks, we will use today’s “Data” section to discuss the greenback and the related topic of interest rate differentials between US Treasuries and other developed economy sovereign yields. We will also touch on what all this means for US stock prices, of course. Here is a chart of
- [US Corporate Earnings: Q4 and beyond](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-corporate-earnings-q4-and-beyond/): We’re going to dedicate today’s “Data” section entirely to US large cap corporate earnings for four reasons: First, with Q3 reports largely in the bag we have a solid baseline to consider. Second, the upside in US corporate earnings this year is entirely responsible for the S&P 500’s YTD gains (23 pct better than expected
- [Metaverse Companies In, Tech Companies Out](https://datatrekresearch.com/metaverse-companies-in-tech-companies-out/): Ever since Facebook recently rebranded as “Meta Platforms” to signal its change in focus to the metaverse, other major companies have started announcing their own ambitions in the space. But what exactly is the metaverse? The term comes from Neal Stephenson’s 1992 science fiction novel “Snow Crash”, where people use digital avatars to escape their own
- [CPI Report: Market Impact, Food/Housing Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/cpi-report-market-impact-food-housing-inflation/): The US Consumer Price Index report is the topic of today’s “Data” section. Three thoughts: #1: A hotter than expected print (+6.2 percent headline, +4.6 pct core) is resetting market expectations for the pace of Fed bond purchase tapering and the timing/magnitude of any change in policy rates. 10-year Treasury yields spiked by 12 basis points,
- [Real Yields, TSLA & PYPL Make the Market](https://datatrekresearch.com/real-yields-tsla-pypl-make-the-market/): Published 11/9/21 Two “Data” topics today: #1: Real US interest rates. There have been only 2 periods since the early 2000s when real 10-year Treasury yields (nominal minus expected inflation) were continuously negative for a noticeable stretch of time: The first was the 500 days between January 24th, 2012 and June 7th, 2013. The second is
- [US Big Tech: Valuations/Earnings Forecast Trends](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-big-tech-valuations-earnings-forecast-trends/): Large Cap Tech has been an important piece of the move in the S&P 500 over the last month, rallying 10.5 percent to the index’s 7.1 pct gain. That got us to wondering both how this sector’s valuation looks now and where analysts’ earnings estimates have gone since the most important companies here reported Q3 numbers.
- [US Corporate Earnings Estimates Are (Still) Too Low](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-corporate-earnings-estimates-are-still-too-low/): Two “Data” topics today. #1: Our entire edge in correctly predicting Q3 US corporate earnings would handily beat expectations and stocks would rise in Q4 as a result came down to one idea: there was no way the S&P 500 would print an aggregate Q3 earnings per share result that was lower than Q2. That’s
- [US Retail Investor Trends, Post-FOMC Fed Funds Odds](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-retail-investor-trends-post-fomc-fed-funds-odds/): Three “Data” Items today: #1: Americans’ interest in investing is starting to pick up again. We’ve chronicled the ebbs and flows here over the last 18 months, most commonly by looking at domestic Google Trends search volume data for “invest” and “buy stock”. Here is the latest version of that chart, where last week’s search volumes
- [US Corporate Earnings: How Much Is Too Much?](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-corporate-earnings-how-much-is-too-much/): A longtime client recently posed the following question (expanded here to flesh out his thinking): Think of aggregate US corporate profits as being a “share” of total US GDP plus some contribution from income created by non-US economic activity. As of the most recent data available (Q2 2021), we are at all-time peak levels of
- [TSLA and Small/Large Cap Tech: How Overbought?](https://datatrekresearch.com/tsla-and-small-large-cap-tech-how-overbought/): As bullish as we are about Technology over the long term, there are times when the group isn’t particularly attractive over time horizons as long as 3-6 months. As a theme it gets hot, then cold, then hot again. That’s not just true for the sector, but for names like Google, Facebook, and Tesla. We saw
- [US Corporate Earnings Expectations, Oct/YTD Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-corporate-earnings-expectations-oct-ytd-returns/): Two “Data” items today: #1: We often say that FactSet’s S&P 500 analysts’ earnings estimate graph is the “most important chart in the world” for US large cap equity investors. Estimates for 2021 earnings have gone from $167/share in January to $204/share today, an increase of 22 percent. The S&P 500 is up 23 percent year
- [US Q3 Money Velocity, Plus 3 Things That Worry Us](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-q3-money-velocity-plus-3-things-that-worry-us/): Two items for “Data” today: #1: Q3 US GDP was better than the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model (+2.0 pct actual, 0.2 pct expected), which is a relief; we were curious, however, as to how M2 Money Velocity looked in the most recent quarter. As you can see from the chart below (1960 – present), money velocity
- [COP26: Clean Energy Names to Watch](https://datatrekresearch.com/cop26-clean-energy-names-to-watch/): This Sunday President Biden along with other world leaders, business executives and activists will head to the U.N. Climate Change Conference – COP26 – in Glasgow, Scotland. Clean energy will garner lots of attention from this event over the next couple of weeks. Today we will check in with the top three US listed ETFs focused
- [TSLA Disrupts the S&P, New Bitcoin Research](https://datatrekresearch.com/tsla-disrupts-the-sp-new-bitcoin-research/): Two “Disruption” topics today: #1: How does Tesla’s +$1 trillion valuation affect commonly used measures of US large cap equity valuation and other commonly used market metrics? Three points on this: First, Tesla’s rally is making the S&P 500 even more of a concentrated bet on disruptive technology. When it was 1.X percent of the S&P, one
- [Seasonal Tailwind: Nov/Dec US Equity Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/seasonal-tailwind-nov-dec-us-equity-returns/): With October rapidly drawing to a close, today we have an update on our seasonal US equity return and volatility analyses to see what they signal for the S&P 500’s performance in November and December. In our last review at the end of September we showed that since 1980, on average, October (+1.1 pct) not only
- [US Earnings Reports, Corporate Taxes, State Labor Mkts](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-earnings-reports-corporate-taxes-state-labor-mkts/): Three “Data” items today: #1: An update on the “most important chart for US equity investors”: Wall Street analysts’ earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2021 (bottom line) and 2022 (top line). After 2 months of relative stagnancy, estimates have started to increase again and are now at record levels ($203/share for 2021, $221/share for
- [Barron's: "Turns Out Tesla Is Right. EV Buyers Only Want Teslas."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-turns-out-tesla-is-right-ev-buyers-only-want-teslas/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Exciting indeed. Kirkhorn’s observation led DataTrek Research to wonder about that EV-Tesla portion of the comment. DataTrek found that people do want Teslas—more than other EVs. “Aggregate the three Tesla models’ [Google] searches and they far outnumber ‘electric car’ queries,” wrote the firm in a Friday research note...
- [Tesla, Used Car Inflation, New Bund Yield Highs](https://datatrekresearch.com/tesla-used-car-inflation-new-bund-yield-highs/): Three “Data” topics today: #1: Given Tesla’s strong earnings report last night, we got to wondering how sustainable its competitive advantage in electric vehicles is here in the US. As more competition comes online, how big is Tesla’s “brand moat” in the space? This chart tracks US Google search volumes for “model 3” (blue), “model y”
- [Bloomberg: "Bitcoin Takes a Breather After Rallying to New High"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-bitcoin-takes-a-breather-after-rallying-to-new-high/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "This asset tends to peak around flashy events,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Our recommended approach is to scale in slowly, over a period of months or years, rather than chasing it when it becomes frothy,” he said, adding, “Be careful".... Read the full
- [Beige Book: Inflation Not Transitory](https://datatrekresearch.com/beige-book-inflation-not-transitory/): Early last month, we warned about the change in tone in the Fed’s Beige Book Reports, with the September edition saying there was a “downshift” in US economic activity over the summer. That was spot on, as captured by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model’s dramatic downward trend for Q3 US economic growth since August. Just yesterday,
- [Book Review: “The Future of Money”](https://datatrekresearch.com/book-review-the-future-of-money/): We recently read a book titled “The Future of Money” by Cornell University Economics Professor Eswar Prasad, and our thoughts about the work are the subject of today’s Disruption discussion. We picked it up because Prasad clearly knows some influential people in the space. The recommendation blurbs on the back cover include glowing praise from Larry
- [Dollar/Stock Correlations, S&P Margins](https://datatrekresearch.com/dollar-stock-correlations-sp-margins/): Two “Data” items today: #1: A long-run correlation analysis between the US dollar and the S&P 500. We got to thinking about this topic last week, when we looked at both the direction of the dollar and (separately) the percentage of S&P 500 sector revenues that come from non-US sources. Today we’ll pull the two ideas
- [Q3 GDP Update, Estimate Revisions, Retail Sales](https://datatrekresearch.com/q3-gdp-update-estimate-revisions-retail-sales/): Three “Data” items today: #1: Not to start on a down note, but the Altanta Fed GDPNow model just printed its lowest Q3 estimate to-date at just 1.2 percent. We are well within the window where GDPNow is most accurate since it has almost complete data for the most recent quarter. We had hoped this model
- [MarketWatch: "Earnings are headed for an all-time high, if supply-chain and staffing woes don’t get in the way"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-earnings-are-headed-for-an-all-time-high-if-supply-chain-and-staffing-woes-dont-get-in-the-way/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote in a Monday morning research note that companies will have to come closer to the second number than the first to see any gains for stocks in the coming months. “The companies of the S&P 500 need to beat by an
- [Reuters: "Powell favored for Fed reinstatement but investors examine alternatives"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-powell-favored-for-fed-reinstatement-but-investors-examine-alternatives/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a research note that if "history is any guide, we should know the outcome in the next few weeks," noting that prior announcements have come in October and November. Powell was nominated by former President Donald Trump on
- [CNBC: "S&P 500 earnings beats aren’t the make-or-break factor for this market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-sp-500-earnings-beats-arent-the-make-or-break-factor-for-this-market/): Excerpts from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "That comes back to what DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas says may be the difference between this quarter and every other recent quarter since the Covid outbreak — companies really need to deliver on guidance... ... What’s not baked into the S&P 500 is what companies say
- [Yahoo Finance: "The Great Resignation is ripping through the restaurant industry"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-great-resignation-is-ripping-through-the-restaurant-industry/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Workers continue to leave the retail and restaurant industries amid challenging demands put on existing staff due to labor shortages and other measures, such as mask requirements for customers. With the persistent high quits rate in these industries throughout the pandemic, both will remain constrained
- [Yahoo Finance: "‘Take this job and shove it’ indicator hits all-time high: DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-take-this-job-and-shove-it-indicator-hits-all-time-high-datatrek/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "According to data released in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday, Oct. 12, job quits to total separations reached a record high of 71.1% in August. Co-founder of DataTrek Research Jessica Rabe believes that this indicator
- [Business Insider: "Why you should be celebrating the record number of people saying, 'I quit'"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-why-you-should-be-celebrating-the-record-number-of-people-saying-i-quit/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "DataTrek Research, an economic-research group, tracks what it calls the "take this job and shove it" indicator. That's the share of job separations that were quits, as opposed to layoffs or other reasons for leaving work. Jessica Rabe, DataTrek's cofounder, told Insider in an email
- [Barron's: "The S&P 500 Could Drop 8%. Why the Stock Market Is on Shaky Ground."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-sp-500-could-drop-8-why-the-stock-market-is-on-shaky-ground/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Third-quarter profit estimates for the S&P 500, in aggregate, fell 0.8% between Sept. 3 and Oct. 8, according to DataTrek. Companies have dealt with supply and labor shortages, hampering their ability to meet sales expectations while raising costs and lowering profit margins. Recently, higher commodity prices have added to the dimming earnings picture".... Read the
- [MarketWatch: "The 2021 stock-market highs are ‘almost certainly’ in, unless earnings clear this bar"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-the-2021-stock-market-highs-are-almost-certainly-in-unless-earnings-clear-this-bar/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The companies of the S&P 500 need to beat by an aggregate 10 percentage points this quarter, or we’ve almost certainly seen the highs on U.S. equity markets for the year,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Monday note... ...Colas noted that companies
- [MarketWatch: "Beware ‘unrealistic complacency’ in stock market"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-beware-unrealistic-complacency-in-stock-market/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research has been pointing to third-quarter earnings as an area of potential concern for the U.S. stock market, as Wall Street analysts have trimmed estimates for company results. “We no longer have the tailwind of analysts increasing S&P 500 earnings estimates every week,” DataTrek co-founder
- [Crain's NY Business: "Secrets to keeping workers happy from the city’s best workplaces"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-business-secrets-to-keeping-workers-happy-from-the-citys-best-workplaces/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."What’s more, widespread labor shortages mean employees have more bargaining power than they’ve had in years. The ratio of workers quitting their job hit a record 69% of all separations in June, according to U.S. Labor Department data. The leisure and hospitality sector saw the most
- [Business Insider: "An upside surprise for stocks is brewing as historical trends show the S&P 500 is on track to buck analysts' gloomy forecasts, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-an-upside-surprise-for-stocks-is-brewing-as-historical-trends-show-the-sp-500-is-on-track-to-buck-analysts-gloomy-forecasts-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Would companies be hiring and advertising open positions as aggressively as the US labor market data shows if they were expecting a 7% sequential drop in profitability? It seems unlikely," DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said. And the US corporate bond market isn't signaling any stresses
- [Barron's: "3 Reasons the Stock Market Will Keep Falling"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-3-reasons-the-stock-market-will-keep-falling/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ...."The current move has a lot more going for it: Fed bond purchase tapering is coming,” wrote Nicholas Colas, a DataTrek co-founder. Colas sees the yield hitting 1.75% soon... ...That makes sense. Not only was that the yield’s 2021 high, but it also brings the real yield—the nominal yield
- [CNBC: "Wall Street’s fear gauge says the sell-off isn’t over yet"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-wall-streets-fear-gauge-says-the-sell-off-isnt-over-yet/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Judging by the Cboe Volatility Index, which is considered the best gauge of fear on Wall Street, a tradeable bottom hasn’t been reached, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “We don’t think [Tuesday] was the bottom of the current correction phase in US markets,” Colas
- [Airline Holiday 2021 Outlook](https://datatrekresearch.com/airline-holiday-2021-outlook/): US air travel demand missed expectations this past Summer as Americans continued to stay close to home. How are the latest trends shaping up? Today we address that question with an update on US airline demand using ticket prices as a measure of incremental real-time consumer interest and improvement in airline sector profitability. Computer algorithms set
- [Is 5 Percent US Inflation the “New Normal”?](https://datatrekresearch.com/is-5-percent-us-inflation-the-new-normal/): Just one “Data” topic, but an important one: today’s Consumer Price Index report. We’ll start with the easy bit: explaining why CPI is still running over 5 percent: Headline number: +5.4 percent annual inflation (note: highest reading since July 2008) Core (ex food and energy): +4.0 pct (note: lower than June 2021’s 4.4 pct reading)
- [Big Tech Sales Growth: Past, Present and Future](https://datatrekresearch.com/big-tech-sales-growth-past-present-and-future/): US Big Tech has become such a large part of the global equity landscape that every investor, no matter how “macro”, needs to understand at least a little bit about the fundamental drivers that power the stocks of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Facebook. Not only are those 5 names 22.2 percent of the S&P 500,
- [US Earnings Power Since 2019, Nat Gas Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-earnings-power-since-2019-nat-gas-inflation/): Two “Data” items today: #1: What can Q3 corporate earnings tell us about how structural earnings power has improved since pre-pandemic and where might markets be underestimating future improvements? In the next few weeks, we’ll see hundreds of headlines showing Company ABC posted some amazing earnings growth rate as compared to Q3 2020. Given how weak
- [Q3 Earnings, US Job Growth: How Much Is “Enough”?](https://datatrekresearch.com/q3-earnings-us-job-growth-how-much-is-enough/): Two “Data” topics today: #1: How good does Q3 US corporate earnings season have to be to get a large cap stock rally into the end of 2021? In a typical quarter, companies beat Wall Street’s earnings estimates by 3-4 percent. In Q1 and Q2 2021, however, the beats were much higher: 23 and 17 percentage
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-10/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing his outlook on oil prices and its impact on economic growth here. He also gave his thoughts on potential regulation for Facebook and what it means for the company's stock here.
- [Jalopy Inflation Rises, Gold and US GDP Fall](https://datatrekresearch.com/jalopy-inflation-rises-gold-and-us-gdp-fall/): Three “Data” items today. #1: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is still reducing its estimate for Q3 US economic growth. Yes, we said the same thing just a few days ago, when the model’s GDP estimate for the just-ended quarter was +2.3 percent. As of its latest readout, however, GDPNow is saying Q3 only showed +1.3
- [“B” Disruptive](https://datatrekresearch.com/b-disruptive/): There is a newly published academic paper on the National Bureau of Economic Research website titled “Decrypting New Age Capital Flows” that has not yet gotten much attention but really should. Why? Two of its authors are Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. The former is the Chief Economist at the World Bank, among other duties. The latter
- [Energy Stocks, US Wage Growth & Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/energy-stocks-us-wage-growth-inflation/): Two “Data” topics today: #1: Three reasons to look at US Energy stocks here, even after the run they have had recently: First, analysts’ earnings estimates look too low to us: S&P is showing a $30.51/share estimate for the large cap Energy sector in 2022. That is essentially the same as what the group earned
- [Real Interest Rates, VIX Update, Powell](https://datatrekresearch.com/real-interest-rates-vix-update-powell/): Published 10/4/21 Three “Data” items today: #1: We do not think today represented a near term low for US equities or, by extension, global stocks. Why? Our rationale is simple but based on decades of market history: the CBOE VIX Index only closed at 23. How can that be, given the S&P 500’s flirting with a down
- [Correlations, Q3 GDP, Clarida/Powell](https://datatrekresearch.com/correlations-q3-gdp-clarida-powell/): Three “Data” topics today: #1: There are many ways to measure equity market “stress”, but we favor the CBOE VIX Index and its close cousin, equity sector correlations. The tie between the VIX and correlations is mathematical: Under “normal” equity market conditions, sector correlations to the S&P 500 usually range between 0.7 – 0.8. That is
- [Are Treasuries Oversold Yet?](https://datatrekresearch.com/are-treasuries-oversold-yet/): Two “Data” items today: #1: Are long-term US Treasuries oversold enough to consider buying? To answer that question we: Pulled the price data for TLT (iShares +20-year Treasury ETF) back to 2005. Calculated rolling 50-day (about 1 calendar quarter) returns. Note: unlike similar analyses we’ve done recently for Emerging Markets or the Russell 2000, this is
- [Growth, Value, and ESG in Q3: Who Won?](https://datatrekresearch.com/growth-value-and-esg-in-q3-who-won/): Three “Data” items today: #1: With just one day left to go in the third quarter, today we will look at how various investment styles performed in Q3 2021 as well as how they are faring for the year-to-date. First, here are the current QTD and YTD price returns for the broad US equity benchmarks: S&P
- [Does Tech Really Trade on Treasury Yields?](https://datatrekresearch.com/does-tech-really-trade-on-treasury-yields/): “US Tech stocks decline as rates rise.” That was a prominent headline today, and simple valuation math supports the idea: Technology stocks typically have high valuations, which means markets are imputing many years of rising and relatively risk-free future cash flows. As Treasury/risk free yields rise, the discount rate on those cash flows also increases. That
- [Seasonal Tailwind: Q4 Equity Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/seasonal-tailwind-q4-equity-returns/): Today we want to build on our recent seasonal US equity volatility analysis to see what it signals for the S&P 500’s performance in Q4 2021. The S&P was up +20.4 pct YTD through August before this month, well over one standard deviation from the average since 1980. In our last note, we showed what happens
- [Q3 Performance Data, Our Q4 Picks](https://datatrekresearch.com/q3-performance-data-our-q4-picks/): With Q3 2021 ending in 4 days, today we will take an advance look at what worked and didn’t in the third quarter and how asset price returns are shaping up for the year. First up, global/regional/notable country equity price returns (data through Friday’s close, ETF symbol noted, bolding for emphasis): MSCI All-World Index (ACWI):
- [FOMC Meeting/Powell Presser: By The Numbers](https://datatrekresearch.com/fomc-meeting-powell-presser-by-the-numbers/): Three thoughts on today’s FOMC meeting and Chair Powell press conference for “Data”: #1: Powell’s comments reminded us of an important fact that doesn’t get enough attention: the Fed is trying to accomplish 2 very different goals with its monetary policy response to the Pandemic Recession. The first is to follow its mandate and do
- [Urban Unemployment, Slow RTO, Used Car Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/urban-unemployment-slow-rto-used-car-inflation/): With capital markets a bit calmer today, we’ll update a few important macro topics we have been tracking in recent months. #1: Regional trends in US unemployment. While the national level of joblessness is now 5.2 percent as of August, the state-level differences remain quite wide: 14 states have unemployment rates below 4 percent, typically considered
- [What 1987 Says About 2021](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-1987-says-about-2021/): This month’s US/global equity volatility after a strong January - August performance will spark inevitable comparisons to 1987. Some are fair and some are less so; we’ll cover both here. As we’ve mentioned before, the S&P 500 total return history going into both 1987 are 2021 is eerily similar. Total returns for the 2 prior years are
- [Time to Worry About Q3 Earnings?](https://datatrekresearch.com/time-to-worry-about-q3-earnings/): We’ll focus today’s Data section on just one topic: why are Wall Street analysts reducing their Q3 US corporate earnings expectations and what does that mean for equity prices? Here is the setup for the discussion: We are laser-focused on this issue because of the strong and logical year-to-date correlation between 2021 whole-year earnings expectations and
- [Comparing US/UK Post-Pandemic Social Trends](https://datatrekresearch.com/comparing-us-uk-post-pandemic-social-trends/): Every country is recovering from the pandemic in its own unique way, but the US is remaking its economy much differently than other developed nations. One reason is due to the massive suburbanization trend that has taken hold in the US, with swaths of Americans choosing to relocate from urban to suburban areas as they seek
- [US Inflation: 4 Takes](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-inflation-4-takes/): We’ll dedicate today’s Data section to the Consumer Price Index report out this morning as well as related topics regarding US inflation. Four points: #1: CPI inflation remains concentrated in two categories – gasoline and new/used motor vehicles – that either have easy comparisons to last year (the former) or are a function of supply
- [60/40 Still Alive and Well](https://datatrekresearch.com/60-40-still-alive-and-well/): Every few years for at least the last 2 decades we’ve read that “60 percent stock/40 percent bond portfolio” investing is dead. Some shock, so the storyline goes, will force down both fixed income and equity asset prices. Pop quiz: guess how many times both the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries have posted total return losses
- [Misery Index, S&P Earnings](https://datatrekresearch.com/misery-index-sp-earnings/): Three Data Items today: #1: We keep hearing that stagflation is a looming threat for the US economy, so let’s dredge up the old “Misery Index” from the economic history books and see what it has to say. The calculation here is simple enough: add the unemployment rate to CPI headline inflation and you get a
- [WSJ: "The Wrong Way to Target Corporate Excess"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-the-wrong-way-to-target-corporate-excess/): Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Stock buybacks are a sorely misunderstood punching bag. Uncommon before a rule change in 1982, they have exploded over the last couple of decades to overtake dividends as the most common way companies return money to shareholders. Companies in the S&P 500 paid out $178
- [Momentum > Seasonality: September Stock Returns](https://datatrekresearch.com/momentum-seasonality-september-stock-returns/): Today we want to take a deeper dive into what history can tell us about potential S&P 500 price performance over the balance of 2021 given the index’s already strong YTD return. We’ve recently covered the basics of seasonal equity returns with long run data back to 1928, and our conclusion was that September can be
- [Job Openings, End of Enhanced UI, Money Flows](https://datatrekresearch.com/job-openings-end-of-enhanced-ui-money-flows/): Three “Data” Items today: #1: With Jessica focused on today’s Beige Book release, I (Nick) will pinch hit on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, also out today. The July “Openings” print of 10.9 million positions got most of the headlines because that is 2.2 million higher than the total number of unemployed Americans in
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-9/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV explaining how investors should position their portfolios amid a historically choppy month of trading in September. Watch it here!
- [Q3 US GDP Mystery, Jobs Report](https://datatrekresearch.com/q3-us-gdp-mystery-jobs-report/): Three “Data” items today: #1: We’ll begin with a “Data” item that, ironically, has no data: the New York Fed’s automated Nowcast model of current-quarter US GDP growth. We got the following email from the NY Fed this morning: “Nowcasting Report: Suspension Notification The uncertainty around the pandemic and the consequent volatility in the data have
- [What could go wrong? 10 Ideas.](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-could-go-wrong-10-ideas/): We will dedicate today’s note to one topic: what could go wrong for stocks between now and the end of the year? As positive as we are on US large caps and European equities, it is always a useful exercise to consider when and why the tides may turn. That sentiment is doubly true just now,
- [US GDP Slipping, Housing Inflation Isn’t](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-gdp-slipping-housing-inflation-isnt/): #1: Both regional Federal Reserve automated US GDP models are showing declining economic momentum during Q3 2021. Here is the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, where the latest estimate calls for 5.1 percent growth. This is the lowest QTD estimate and differs noticeably from the +7 percent expected by economists. And here is the NY Fed’s Nowcast
- [In the Long Run …](https://datatrekresearch.com/in-the-long-run/): With that preface, on to the show … What is a reasonable expectation for long run US equity returns? The market history we all learned in finance class or on the job provides one approach to answering that question: Since 1928 the S&P 500 has averaged an 11.8 percent annual total return (price appreciation plus reinvested
- [Powell’s (Jackson) Hole-in-One, Satellite iPhone?](https://datatrekresearch.com/powells-jackson-hole-in-one-satellite-iphone/): Four grab-bag topics today: #1: Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday broke little new ground, and he waited until the very end to give his color on asset purchase tapering and the future path of interest rates. Here are the relevant 2 paragraphs (emphasis ours): “We have said that we would continue our asset purchases
- [Treasury Yields Vs. Issuance, Global Corp Earnings Power](https://datatrekresearch.com/treasury-yields-vs-issuance-global-corp-earnings-power/): Two Data items today: 1: US Treasury debt issuance and yields. We’ve heard concerns from clients that the Treasury will have to ramp up issuance over the rest of 2021 and this will cause a backup in yields. We are sharpening our pencils on this issue and will report back next week. As we wrote last
- [10-Year Yields & Cyclicals, Worst Case US Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/10-year-yields-cyclicals-worst-case-us-inflation/): Two Data Items today: #1: 10-year Treasury yields, which have started to show signs of life again. After going from 0.9 percent at the start of 2021 to 1.75 pct at the end of March, they pulled all the way back to 1.17 pct at the start of this month. At today’s close yields sit at
- [US Equity Vol During Tapering and Rate Hikes](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-equity-vol-during-tapering-and-rate-hikes/): Equity market volatility reminds us of the old saw “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” For example, the CBOE VIX Index, aka the “Fear Gauge”, is a regular topic of conversation even though very few market participants actually trade S&P index options. As we’ll discuss in a moment, the only thing
- [Back to School Bust, Global Returns since 2020](https://datatrekresearch.com/back-to-school-bust-global-returns-since-2020/): Two Data Topics today: #1: US back to school shopping season is either happening very late this year or American consumers are becoming a bit wary. This is a Google Trends chart of US query volumes for the term “back to school” over the last 5 years. Before the pandemic, peak “back to school” searches were
- [HY vs. IG Corporates: Which is Better?](https://datatrekresearch.com/hy-vs-ig-corporates-which-is-better/): Two Data items today: #1: What history says about choosing between investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) corporate bonds at this point in an investment/economic cycle. Since the start of Q3, IG has outperformed HY on a price basis (LQD ETF +0.6 pct, HYG ETF -0.9 pct) and the relative yield differential over that period
- [Tiny Taper Tantrum, Or Just “August”?](https://datatrekresearch.com/tiny-taper-tantrum-or-just-august/): Three Data items today: #1: A few thoughts about today’s selloff: The VIX seasonality work we showed you at the end of June remains relevant. July and August both tend to have higher CBOE VIX levels than June month end, with early and late August having the highest relative implied volatility versus the end of Q2.
- [Where Are Earnings Actually Growing Versus 2019?](https://datatrekresearch.com/where-are-earnings-actually-growing-versus-2019/): Published on 8/16/21 Two Data topics today: #1: We talk a lot about how the S&P 500 in 2021 is handily out earning its 2019 pre-pandemic self, but exactly which sectors are driving that and how sustainable is it? As a reminder: In 2019 the S&P 500 earned $157/share according to S&P. This is close enough
- [The Most Important Chart In Investing](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-most-important-chart-in-investing/): Two Data items today: #1: An update on “the most important chart in the world”, at least when it comes to understanding why the S&P 500 keeps making new highs. It is FactSet’s graphical representation of Wall Street analysts’ aggregate S&P earnings forecasts for 2021 (bottom line) and 2022 (top line), shown here: Three points here:
- [Goldman Carries The Dow](https://datatrekresearch.com/goldman-carries-the-dow/): With the Dow Jones Industrial Average at record highs, today we break down the index to see how it got there and what may drive it higher. No, it’s not Wall Street’s de facto benchmark for US equity performance, and yes, it is imperfect due to its price-weighted composition. BUT… it is still the way most
- [CPI Report, Energy & Health Care Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/cpi-report-energy-health-care-stocks/): Two “Data” items today: #1: Is it a “market of stocks” or a “stock market”? Grizzled finance veterans always like to say it’s the former as a reminder to stick to the fundamentals. In truth, however, when volatility hits it really is a “stock market” – everything goes up and down in unison. Take as an
- [Stock Ideas From An AI-Powered ETF](https://datatrekresearch.com/stock-ideas-from-an-ai-powered-etf-2/): Today we have an update on AIEQ, a US exchange traded fund that uses IBM Watson-powered artificial intelligence to pick stocks. Out of all the funds we write about, this ETF seems to pique our clients’ interest the most and for good reason. Not only does it take a novel approach to stock selection versus its
- [JOLTS: Take This Job And Shove It](https://datatrekresearch.com/jolts-take-this-job-and-shove-it/): It is a worker’s jobs market here in the US, as each month’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) has shown of late, including today. Most headlines noted that job openings surpassed 10 mn for the first time on the last day of June (latest available data). That’s true, but there are also other important
- [US Corporate Earnings, Friday Jobs Report](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-corporate-earnings-friday-jobs-report/): Two “Data” items today: #1: How and why Wall Street is still underestimating US corporate earnings power. Consider this chart, courtesy of FactSet, which shows S&P 500 actual quarterly earnings per share (solid blue) and projected earnings (shaded blue) from Q4 2019 to Q3 2022. The bar right in the middle (at $52.15/share) is Q2 2021,
- [Growth of Stablecoins](https://datatrekresearch.com/growth-of-stablecoins/): Today we will be discussing stablecoins – virtual currencies tied to fiat currencies like the dollar – but we want to start with an observation about $100 bills. These are about as “real” as currency gets, and demand for C-notes remains extremely strong. A few datapoints: The Federal Reserve reports that as of the end of
- [Energy, Health Care, Tech: 3 Sectors We Like](https://datatrekresearch.com/energy-health-care-tech-3-sectors-we-like/): We’ve mentioned this story about sector weights before, but for the benefit of our newer subscribers we will briefly recap it: When I (Nick) started covering the auto industry at the old First Boston Company in 1991, Fidelity was the US brokerage industry’s most important client. That meant every Wall Street analyst was in and out
- [Tech Stocks, Interest Rates, Growth Scares](https://datatrekresearch.com/tech-stocks-interest-rates-growth-scares/): With the continued slide in US Treasury yields beginning to worry equity markets, we will devote today’s Disruption section to what that means for Tech stocks in our usual 3-point format: #1: Valuation math. Any Tech company worth owning is a growth story, meaning its earnings should grow faster than those of the S&P 500. This
- [July and YTD Global Equity Returns, Our Picks](https://datatrekresearch.com/july-and-ytd-global-equity-returns-our-picks/): #1: We’ve been telling you for months that Wall Street’s S&P 500 earnings estimates for Q2 and the rest of 2021 were too low and that current earnings power was $50/share. Even 6 weeks ago, the Street was looking for $44.59/share for Q2 and saying $50/share was off the table for the rest of the year.
- [Powell by the Numbers](https://datatrekresearch.com/powell-by-the-numbers/): We’ll dedicate today’s Data section to discussing Fed Chair Powell’s press conference today. Our big picture takeaway: the contours of the US post-pandemic economic recovery are 1) upending the Fed’s assumptions about how it would go and 2) creating uncertainty about the US economy’s 1–2-year future. We’re reminded of the old military strategists’ saying that “the
- [China Stocks, US Gas Usage, Office Occupancy](https://datatrekresearch.com/china-stocks-us-gas-usage-office-occupancy/): Three “Data” items today: #1: US urban center office occupancy. We recently came across a dataset from Kastle Systems, a provider of building access monitoring. When you swipe one of their ID cards to get into your office building or work area, they log that activity. Their customers are in more than 2,600 buildings in 138
- [Is Tesla A Car Company?, Big Tech Geo Rev Splits](https://datatrekresearch.com/is-tesla-a-car-company-big-tech-geo-rev-splits/): Two “Disruption” topics today: #1: Tesla’s healthy earnings beat this afternoon and GAAP profits of +$1 billion got us to thinking about an age-old question: “As a shareholder, do you really want your disruptive tech company to show a large profit?” There are arguments for and against, each with good examples. Amazon remains the poster child
- [S&P 500 Earnings: How High?](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-500-earnings-how-high/): Two Data items today: #1: How much higher can S&P 500 earnings estimates go? Not to oversimplify, but this is essentially the only question that matters to US stocks and, by extension, global equities. The American economy, by dint of everything from consumer savings levels to vaccination rates, is best positioned to show further growth. The
- [CNBC: "Earnings season has been great with profit margins holding up in the face of inflation"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-earnings-season-has-been-great-with-profit-margins-holding-up-in-the-face-of-inflation/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Despite the effect of the pandemic on profits in early 2020, Nicholas Colas, who analyzes market trends as head of DataTrek, notes that this is the culmination of two remarkable years of growth: “In the 2 years since Q2 2019 the S&P 500 has generated 17
- [2H 2020’s Most Important Datasets](https://datatrekresearch.com/2h-2020s-most-important-datasets/): Earlier today we spoke on a panel hosted by Wall Street Horizon about the use of data in the investment process. The other speakers were both from the buyside and companies that provide data. It’s always impolite to ask someone’s age, but it’s safe to say there was at least 100 years collective investment experience among
- [US Retail Investors: A Deep Dive](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-retail-investors-a-deep-dive/): We usually dedicate part of Wednesday’s Data section to US retail investor fund flows, but today we’ll take a step back and do that plus address a few other more general issues related to this cohort. 3 points: #1: This chart of Robinhood’s account growth since 2013 speaks to 2020’s surge of new US retail
- [Real-Time US Consumer Spending Patterns: An Update](https://datatrekresearch.com/real-time-us-consumer-spending-patterns-an-update/): We continue to monitor US consumer behavior in real-time using non-traditional datasets as the domestic economy reopens. This has enabled us to call the end of 2020’s massive tech hardware upgrade cycle and show how Americans are enjoying outside experiences but still close to home rather than lots of traveling as was originally assumed would be
- [History Says Volatility is Not Over](https://datatrekresearch.com/history-says-volatility-is-not-over/): We have 2 “Data” items about US equity market volatility today: #1: At the end of June we showed you this chart, an analysis of seasonal patterns in the CBOE VIX Index (expected near-term S&P 500 volatility). The starting point is June 30th at 100, and the lines reflect the daily moves in the VIX through
- [Urban Unemployment: The Fed’s Blind Spot](https://datatrekresearch.com/urban-unemployment-the-feds-blind-spot/): Two Data items today: #1: The latest state-level US unemployment data shows American joblessness continues to be heavily concentrated in a handful of geographic regions: 33 states have unemployment levels below June’s national reading of 5.9 percent. 11 states show jobless levels below 4 percent, typically considered full employment. The range here goes from 2.5
- [Axios: "Very bad omen" for meme stocks as novice traders stop investing"](https://datatrekresearch.com/axios-very-bad-omen-for-meme-stocks-as-novice-traders-stop-investing/): Excerpt from Axios quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas says this is a "very bad omen" for meme stocks. "To our eyes, the data here says that the surge in US retail investor interest in investing is entirely over," Colas writes. "Every craze needs new adherents (i.e., not just the
- [Axios: "Leisure and hospitality workers quit at a record pace"](https://datatrekresearch.com/axios-leisure-and-hospitality-workers-quit-at-a-record-pace/): Excerpt from Axios quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "DataTrek Research monitors quits as a percent of total job separations. They call it the "take this job and shove it" indicator. For all industries combined, this figure came in at 67.8% in May — the second-highest level ever. "At a 5.9% unemployment rate, this level of
- [Business Insider: "More people are telling their jobs to 'shove it' amidst record quits"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-more-people-are-telling-their-jobs-to-shove-it-amidst-record-quits/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The number is still slightly lower than April's record-breaking high of 68.8%. Jessica Rabe, DataTrek's cofounder, told Insider that quits are still driven by reduced access to childcare and fears of infection. Also significant: Workers relocating to the suburbs from urban centers. But quits —
- [Yahoo Finance: "When to buy and sell bitcoin? It’s ‘exactly the opposite’ of stocks: DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-when-to-buy-and-sell-bitcoin-its-exactly-the-opposite-of-stocks-datatrek/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Though there’s no guarantee that what comes next won’t be different, hedge fund veteran and co-founder of DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, pointed out an interesting pattern with bitcoin different from what we usually see in stocks. Bitcoin is best bought when it's "boring" and best sold
- [Crain's NY Business: "Inflation is unlikely to derail city's slow tourism comeback"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-business-inflation-is-unlikely-to-derail-citys-slow-tourism-comeback/): Excerpt from Crain's NY Business quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Google searches for flights to New York and the term “visit New York” from within United States were rising steadily, with no sign of a slowdown because of prices. “It's coming back.,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Not at 2019 levels but getting
- [CNBC: "A key indicator shows we are past peak inflation fear, supporting the stock market rally"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-a-key-indicator-shows-we-are-past-peak-inflation-fear-supporting-the-stock-market-rally/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "If inflation expectations start to pick up again, markets will rightly worry if the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates sooner,” DataTrek’s Nick Colas wrote. “If they continue to trend lower, then the market’s expectation of one rate increase in 2022 will be a safe
- [Bloomberg: "Bonds Are Hinting They’ll Hedge Stocks Again as Growth Bets Ease"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-bonds-are-hinting-theyll-hedge-stocks-again-as-growth-bets-ease/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek Research: .... "While the S&P 500 was charging to successive new highs last week, Fed Funds Futures and Treasuries were beginning to flash a yellow light,” Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research wrote in a note. “It’s too early to call this a full-blown ‘growth scare,’ but we
- [Barron's: "Companies Are Giving Earnings Guidance Again. Why That’s Good for Stocks."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-companies-are-giving-earnings-guidance-again-why-thats-good-for-stocks/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "For 2021’s second quarter, the number of S&P 500 companies that made forecasts is 103—almost double from the same period last year, according to DataTrek. And that number should grow since earnings season isn’t even in full swing yet... Not only are companies forecasting again, but
- [MarketWatch: "Sustainable themes top investor searches, overshadow growth versus value debate, says DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-sustainable-themes-top-investor-searches-overshadow-growth-versus-value-debate-says-datatrek/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The battle over growth versus value in stocks isn’t over. But investors increasingly have been browsing with their fingertips to learn more about responsible investing themes, according to DataTrek Research. “We’ve reached the point where general investor interest in environmental, social and governance issues is stronger
- [FT: "Inflows into equity funds smash records"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-inflows-into-equity-funds-smash-records/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "While we’re at little risk of overtightening just now, the policy miscommunication issue is very much on the table,” said Nicholas Colas, the co-founder of DataTrek. Colas noted that US stocks did well even in the aftermath of the 2013 taper tantrum, when the
- [WSJ: "Stocks Were Unusually Quiet in June. Traders Think That Is About to Change."](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj/): Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "In turn, any surprising economic data, corporate news or monetary-policy news tends to “hit the market harder than they otherwise might,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in an emailed note. “And since volatility and returns have a negative correlation, this dynamic
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-8/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing his outlook on Emerging Market equities and the ongoing crackdown on Chinese tech companies. Watch it here!
- [CNBC: "Earnings season starts with sky-high stock prices and soaring expectations"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-earnings-season-starts-with-sky-high-stock-prices-and-soaring-expectations/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Markets clearly believe Q2 earnings reports will far exceed expectations,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas said in a recent note to clients. “The ‘right’ earnings growth rate for Q2 is likely closer to 80 percent assuming S&P EPS is only the same as Q1 2021. ... It could be
- [US Leisure Travel: Brighter Skies in 2022](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-leisure-travel-brighter-skies-in-2022/): Today we have one of our occasional updates on US airline demand as a gauge of both US consumer spending trends and the viability of travel-related reopening trades. Let’s start with airline ticket prices to measure incremental real-time consumer demand and improvement in airline sector profitability. Computer algorithms set airline ticket prices based on demand to
- [Virtual Currency Volatility, CBDCs](https://datatrekresearch.com/virtual-currency-volatility-cbdcs/): Two Disruption items today, both about digital currencies. A note for newer clients: many email systems code as spam any messages that mention the popular virtual currency whose name begins with “B”. We therefore refer to this asset as “B” in our work to get around that constraint. #1: We’ve covered “B” since 2013 and our
- [CPI Inflation, “Low Cost” Searches, Fed Funds](https://datatrekresearch.com/cpi-inflation-low-cost-searches-fed-funds/): Four points about yesterday’s US Consumer Price Inflation report: #1: While the headline/core +5.4/+4.5 percent annual inflation numbers were above economists’ expectations, the same transitory factors as previous months drove those numbers: Gasoline prices are up +45 percent versus last year because, well, there wasn’t as much demand then as now. This contributed 1.7 points
- [Big Tech 2021 Is Not Like Big Oil 1980](https://datatrekresearch.com/big-tech-2021-is-not-like-big-oil-1980/): Not to sound curmudgeonly, but the one thing we think that’s been lost in stock market analysis over the last 20 or so years is respect for marginal profitability. If a company makes $100 million on $1.0 billion in sales (a 10 pct net margin), what will it make on its next $100 million in revenues?
- [CPI Inflation & Earnings Season Previews](https://datatrekresearch.com/cpi-inflation-earnings-season-previews/): Two items to cover today: #1: We have 3 points on June’s US Consumer Price Index, out Tuesday morning. First: this report will attract significant attention, so let’s review current expectations: Headline inflation to rise by 0.7 percent, or +5.1 pct versus June 2020 Core inflation to rise by 0.6 percent, or +4.2 pct versus
- [Was Wednesday the Top?](https://datatrekresearch.com/was-wednesday-the-top/): We’ll address a single question in today’s Data section: “Was July 7th the top for the S&P 500 in 2021?” We’re not prone to alarmism, but this strikes us as an entirely reasonable question. The pandemic news flow is worrisome. 10-year Treasuries are clearly concerned about US/global growth. The S&P is expensive by any historical measure
- [China Econ Data: Air Quality 2019 vs. 2021](https://datatrekresearch.com/china-econ-data-air-quality-2019-vs-2021/): Over the years we’ve had two tech-enabled “hacks” that have given us an edge at looking at the Chinese economy in real-time. One was TomTom traffic congestion data across all of China’s major cities, hour by hour. On any given Sunday evening NY time we could see if that weekend’s traffic in Beijing or Shanghai had
- [US Job Report: Retirements and Pay Raises](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-job-report-retirements-and-pay-raises/): While the June US Employment Situation report is now 2 trading days old, we think it still bears analysis because the state of the US labor market is so critical to both Federal Reserve policy and the pace of future domestic economic growth. Our fundamental view on the post-Pandemic US job market recovery is one of
- [Stormy Weather Ahead? VIX Seasonality](https://datatrekresearch.com/stormy-weather-ahead-vix-seasonality/): Seeing the CBOE VIX Index close out Q2 2021 at 15.8 is pretty amazing; it was in almost the same spot (15.1) at the end of Q2 2019, after all. In between then and now we’ve had a global pandemic, worldwide economic turmoil, trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus, and unprecedented central bank policy. And yet,
- [High Conviction Ideas In Disruptive Tech](https://datatrekresearch.com/high-conviction-ideas-in-disruptive-tech/): As we discussed in a recent Story Time Thursday, conviction is an important part of successful investing. It’s not just having the right ideas that generates outsized returns. Sizing them in a portfolio so they can make a difference to performance matters a lot as well. As part of our 2H 2021 look-ahead series, today we
- [US Tech 2H Rally, ESG More Important Than Growth/Value](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-tech-2h-rally-esg-more-important-than-growth-value/): Two items today: #1: Does the recent rally in US Tech stocks have staying power? Some return data to set the stage for this discussion: Year-to-date, both the S&P Tech sector (ETF symbol XLK) and the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) have underperformed the S&P 500. XLK is +12.9 percent, QQQ +12.7 pct, with the S&P 500 +14.2
- [2H 2021 Outlook: Inflation, S&P Upside, Taper Tantrums](https://datatrekresearch.com/2h-2021-outlook-inflation-sp-upside-taper-tantrums/): We’re going to dedicate several days this week to various 2H 2021 outlook topics. Here are our first three: #1: Let’s start with the proverbial elephant in the room: how markets are thinking about trends in US inflation? This chart shows the future inflation expectations priced into 5-year and 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (blue and
- [Bloomberg: "Bitcoin Resumes Slide Toward Closely Watched Technical Level"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-bitcoin-resumes-slide-toward-closely-watched-technical-level/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas on crpytocurrencies and bitcoin: ...“We need to see this market stabilize and, more important, cease to be a news story,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note this week. “The good news is that time will come, and with it will be another great
- [Used Car Inflation Peaking, Gas Demand Rising](https://datatrekresearch.com/used-car-inflation-peaking-gas-demand-rising/): Two points to discuss with you today: #1: US used car prices look to have finally topped out. We rely on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index as a leading indicator here. Manheim specializes in dealer-to-dealer auctions of late model used cars and light trucks. These are near substitutes for new vehicles since they are often
- [US Unemployment: Blame It On The City](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-unemployment-blame-it-on-the-city/): Two items today: #1: The latest weekly data on US mutual/exchange traded fund money flows shows that retail investors can’t quite make up their minds about domestic stocks. The information here is courtesy of the Investment Company Institute (link below): For the week ending June 16th (the most recent report), US fund investors added $21.3 billion
- [Energy Stocks, US Equity Volatility](https://datatrekresearch.com/energy-stocks-us-equity-volatility/): Two Data items to discuss with you today: #1: US Energy stocks are our highest conviction idea, so let’s review two ways to play that theme: XLE (the Energy names in the S&P 500) and PSCE (the Energy slice of the S&P 600 Small Cap Index). Both Nick and Jessica own PSCE, but it is highly
- [No, Markets Are Not Signaling a Policy Mistake](https://datatrekresearch.com/no-markets-are-not-signaling-a-policy-mistake/): Our customary Sunday evening items: #1: The latest on US corporate earnings expectations. Let’s start with an old Wall Street saying: “If you’re running money, never listen to Wall Street analysts. In bull market you don’t need them. In a bear market, they’ll kill you.” The idea here is that price action is the only thing
- [Powell Presser, By the Numbers](https://datatrekresearch.com/powell-presser-by-the-numbers/): For today’s Data discussion we’ll put some graphs around Fed Chair Jay Powell’s most notable comments at today’s post-FOMC press conference: #1: Powell sees the last decade as one where the Federal Reserve failed to achieve its mandate of sustained 2 percent core inflation, and the data supports that assessment. The following chart shows core PCE
- [CNBC: "Why Dow, S&P don’t seem as worried about inflation as everyone else"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-why-dow-sp-dont-seem-as-worried-about-inflation-as-everyone-else/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "For Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, all the comparisons between current inflation numbers and records from the past are interesting for market historians, but less relevant to the stock market outlook. Stock futures were muted ahead of the Fed on Wednesday.... ....The bond market is not signaling an inflationary
- [Barron's: "Why Yield-Hungry Investors Are Looking to Energy Stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-why-yield-hungry-investors-are-looking-to-energy-stocks/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "In 2019, for example, XLE’s quarterly dividend averaged 8 percent higher than today’s payout while West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was actually lower than today’s levels,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek. “While the sector is only 2.9 percent of the S&P, which may limit how
- [Here’s Why Gold Looks Cheap](https://datatrekresearch.com/heres-why-gold-looks-cheap/): Where should gold trade? Until virtual currencies came along, this was the single most contentious question in investing. Even now, the loudest voices are at the extremes, either saying gold is the only “real money” or calling it an antiquated and societally unproductive store of value. Our own view is that gold is a useful asset
- [Business Insider: "An artificial-intelligence powered ETF has smashed the S&P 500 in the last month - without any meme stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-an-artificial-intelligence-powered-etf-has-smashed-the-sp-500-in-the-last-month-without-any-meme-stocks/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "An exchange-traded fund that uses artificial intelligence in identifying the most promising US equities has blasted past the S&P 500 in returns for the past month - without any meme stocks in its holdings, analysis by DataTrek showed. The AIEQ ETF's performance for the past
- [Stock Ideas From An AI-Powered ETF](https://datatrekresearch.com/stock-ideas-from-an-ai-powered-etf/): Today we’ll give one of our occasional updates on a fund we continue to receive client inquiries about: AIEQ, a US exchange traded fund that uses IBM Watson-powered artificial intelligence to make investment decisions. It’s ripped over the past month and is now outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq year-to-date. We thought it would be useful
- [Eurozone Confidence, $/Euro Levels, Q2 Earnings Leverage](https://datatrekresearch.com/eurozone-confidence-euro-levels-q2-earnings-leverage/): Three “Data” topics to discuss with you today: #1: European consumer confidence. As much as the Eurozone and US economies generally track each other over time, European consumer confidence tends to be more volatile. The highs are generally higher, and the lows are often lower. This makes sense: the European economy, which has less technology exposure
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas Talking Inflation on CNBC](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-talking-inflation-on-cnbc/): In his latest video for CNBC, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas broke down the newest CPI report and explained why the data points to transitory inflation. He also gave his investment takeaways and what treasury yields are signaling on this topic. Watch it here on CNBC!
- [CPI Report: Still No Structural Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/cpi-report-still-no-structural-inflation/): We’ll dedicate today’s “Data” section to the Consumer Price Index report out this morning. Ordinarily it would only merit a piece of this section, but with so much investor attention on the topic of inflation we need the space to discuss it completely. #1: We will start with how today’s print fits into the historical record. The
- [Meme Stocks Aren’t the Real Retail Investor Story](https://datatrekresearch.com/meme-stocks-arent-the-real-retail-investor-story/): Two “Data” topics today: #1: The latest on US mutual/exchange traded fund flows. We have been covering these more regularly this year than previously because, well, they finally matter again. There was a time, pre-Financial Crisis, when fund flows were positive (especially in the 1990s) and actually explained stock price movements. Then we had a long
- [Inflation Expectations, Eurozone Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-expectations-eurozone-stocks/): Two “Data” items today: Issue #1: Inflation expectations ahead of Thursday’s Consumer Price Index report for May 2021 and the FOMC meeting next week. The bond market’s expectations of future US inflation have gone nowhere in over 2 months, as this 2019 - present chart of 5- and 10-year TIPS imputed inflation shows. At the start
- [US Home Prices, Gold Fund Flows](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-home-prices-gold-fund-flows/): Two “Data” items to discuss with you today: #1: Comparing current US home price trends to prior recessions and recoveries. This chart shows the S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index back to 1987, indexed to 100 in January of that starting year. The compounded annual growth rate over this period is 4.0 percent, in case you
- [Friday’s Jobs Report: A Sign of the Future](https://datatrekresearch.com/fridays-jobs-report-a-sign-of-the-future/): Even though Friday’s Jobs Report printed the lowest unemployment rate since the start of the pandemic, at 5.8 percent, it was broadly disappointing. Job growth was only 599,000 positions versus expectations of 671,000 and a whisper number of closer to 1 million because of ADP’s +978,000 estimate released the day before/ We’ve been leveraging the US
- [May Perf Data, Presidential Approval/Infrastructure Bill](https://datatrekresearch.com/may-perf-data-presidential-approval-infrastructure-bill/): Two “Data” topics to discuss with you today: Item #1: May price performance data across asset classes, geographies and US large cap equity sectors, with a few comments on each. First up, major asset classes with YTD price performance also noted: Global equities (MSCI All-world): +1.5 percent (+11.3 pct YTD) US bonds (Barclay’s Aggregate): +0.1
- [More Taper History, And Why the S&P Rallies Overnight](https://datatrekresearch.com/more-taper-history-and-why-the-sp-rallies-overnight/): Two “Data” topics today: Issue #1: We recently showed you that 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” had no effect on US equities, but what happened the next year? Recall that the Federal Reserve did not actually begin reducing its bond purchase program until 2014. The 2013 “tantrum” – when Treasuries went from 2 percent to 3 pct in
- [Yahoo Finance: "The airline recovery is looking K-shaped"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-airline-recovery-is-looking-k-shaped/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "In a note published Tuesday, DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe dove into some of the data on airlines. In the airline industry, supply and demand move ticket prices in an almost instantaneous fashion because of the algorithmic nature of pricing, which makes for a very public dataset
- [SPAC-ing Disruption](https://datatrekresearch.com/spac-ing-disruption/): We recently caught up with Matt, a longtime friend and DataTrek client, who also happens to be a US listed exchange traded fund veteran and deep subject matter expert. We’ve long bucketed ETFs as “Disruption” because they fit the Christensen model to a “T”: start with a low-end product that has a unique edge (SPY, an
- [CNBC: "Investors are still confident in thematic tech even as prices plunge"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-investors-are-still-confident-in-thematic-tech-even-as-prices-plunge/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas, who runs DataTrek, a quantitative driven stock research firm, agreed, and explains why that investor base is so patient. “This investor base is sophisticated,” he said. He noted that many tech investors invest based on a J-curve, which means they are expecting losses for
- [Barron's: "Airlines Are Filling Up. But Investors Are Getting Pickier About the Stocks."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-airlines-are-filling-up-but-investors-are-getting-pickier-about-the-stocks/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Airline stocks got overextended as investors misjudged the speed of reopening,” Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note on Tuesday. She added that airfare pricing paints a mixed picture with prices looking strong for travel around the summer holidays and weaker for bookings further
- [Crain's NY: "Google data points to surging business at New York restaurants, retailers and hotels"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-google-data-points-to-surging-business-at-new-york-restaurants-retailers-and-hotels/): Excerpt from Crain's New York Business quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "The data suggest that the much-anticipated post-Covid economic surge is in fact panning out. Searches might seem anecdotal, but Google is closely monitored by Wall Street pros who track consumer behavior... ....“It serves as a leading indicator, since people tend to search for an
- [FT: "Wall Street stocks advance after cryptocurrency jitters"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-wall-street-stocks-advance-after-cryptocurrency-jitters/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "US equities would remain volatile, DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas said, until companies reported second-quarter results and investors could assess whether the first three months of this year represented the peak of the recovery from last year’s industry shutdowns. “The volatility you see in stock prices
- [US Leisure Travel: Still in Transit](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-leisure-travel-still-in-transit/): We have an update on US airline demand, part of our continued monitoring of the state of American consumer discretionary spending and reopening trades. As always, we’ll start by looking at trends in airline ticket prices because they reflect incremental real-time consumer demand and eventual airline profitability. We use this data because there’s little human decision-making
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on TDAmeritrade Network](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-tdameritrade-network/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on TDAmeritrade discussing his outlook on small caps. Watch it here!
- [Bloomberg: "Stock Market's Million Little Dramas Come Down to a Supply"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-stock-markets-million-little-dramas-come-down-to-a-supply/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ...."There is certainly something to the idea that demand for stocks is moderating,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “The IPO window is always wide open until it shuts with a bang. That makes it something of a self-correcting part of the market".... Read the full article
- [Barron's: "Bitcoin Is Sliding Again as Threats of Regulation Mount"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-bitcoin-is-sliding-again-as-threats-of-regulation-mount/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting Nick Colas: .... "For context, the trade-weighted dollar moves an average of 0.3% a day, making Bitcoin about 13 times more volatile, according to DataTrek. “If you are involved, we recommend a position size that acknowledges this is a $750 billon asset that still trades like it is a $1 billion
- [Taper Tantrum: A Sector Playbook](https://datatrekresearch.com/taper-tantrum-a-sector-playbook/): A long-time friend and even longer-time veteran of Tech stock investing pinged us about our recent 2013 “taper tantrum” piece, which concluded that US stocks were hardly affected by the backup in yields that year. He was curious to know if the backup in yields during 2013 caused any notable change in market leadership once bonds
- [Memorial Day Travel As Macro Indicator](https://datatrekresearch.com/memorial-day-travel-as-macro-indicator/): The unofficial US kickoff of Summer - Memorial Day weekend - in just over a week will offer a useful look at Americans’ current propensity to spend (i.e. travel) and therefore how fast the domestic economy can rebound. Three datapoints to frame this discussion: #1: AAA forecasts a large pickup in Americans traveling this Memorial Day
- [New Phase of US Consumerism: Back To Life](https://datatrekresearch.com/new-phase-of-us-consumerism-back-to-life/): US consumer behavior is starting to enter into a new phase for popular product categories since the pandemic began. After shutdowns last March, demand surged for electronics and office necessities amid work and school from home, as well as in-home entertainment (Phase 1). Then there was a huge home upgrade cycle as people spruced up their
- [Mid Quarter Review: GDP and Equity Performance](https://datatrekresearch.com/mid-quarter-review-gdp-and-equity-performance/): Two Data items today with a common theme: a mid-quarter review of Q2 2021. #1: Momentum in the US economy. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is the most closely watched indicator of current macro trends. Unlike human economists who use some judgement in their GDP forecasts, GDPNow is purely algorithmic. As new economic data comes in,
- [US Stocks Are Cheaper: Welcome to Mid Cycle Investing](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-stocks-are-cheaper-welcome-to-mid-cycle-investing/): Three Data items today: #1: Are Americans still interested in stocks? US retail investors, in many cases flush with multiple fiscal stimulus payments, have been a feature in domestic equity markets for over a year now. As the economy reopens and they return to pre-pandemic lives, will they still be as focused on stocks? This chart
- [Datatrek Selling Survey: Replies and Analysis](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatrek-selling-survey-replies-and-analysis/): Today we will review the results of last week’s “Selling – Whys and Whens” survey. Thank you to all who took it! A few details to kick off the conversation: The survey ran from Monday May 10th to Friday May 14th. There were a total of 351 unique respondents. As usual, the vast majority (98 pct)
- [Job Openings > Hires = Wage Gains](https://datatrekresearch.com/job-openings-hires-wage-gains/): We continue to receive many client questions about the ongoing US labor shortage, especially with job openings jumping to an all-time high of 8.1 million as of March according to the latest JOLTS report out this week. One underappreciated aspect of the current labor shortage that we don’t see reported is that it predates the Pandemic
- [The Dow Is The Real Reflation Trade](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-dow-is-the-real-reflation-trade/): Even with the recent US equity selloff the Dow Jones Industrial Average is beating the S&P 500 YTD, up 9.7 pct versus 8.2 pct. While it’s not Wall Street’s go-to index for US equity performance and imperfect due to its price-weighted composition, it is still the way most Americans track the domestic stock market. For example:
- [Third Year Curse, Bunds Break Out, Inflation Fears](https://datatrekresearch.com/third-year-curse-bunds-break-out-inflation-fears/): The last few days have been choppy in US equity markets, so let’s talk about it with the help of some “Data” points. #1: The curse of the third 10 percent year. This is going to sound simplistic at first, but there’s enough of the classic “Keynesian beauty contest” here that it should satisfy readers with
- [US 2021 Leisure Travel Trends Remain Slow](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-2021-leisure-travel-trends-remain-slow/): We continue to monitor the US economic reopening trade, especially with regards to leisure travel. Let’s start by looking at trends in airline ticket prices, which is how we measure incremental real-time consumer demand and eventual airline profitability. There’s little human decision-making bias in these figures given that computer algorithms set these costs based on demand
- [Friday’s Jobs Report & Urban Unemployment](https://datatrekresearch.com/fridays-jobs-report-urban-unemployment/): Three points about Friday’s disappointing US Employment Situation report, with only 266,000 jobs added versus expectations for 1 million: #1: It did almost nothing to close the gap of 8 million fewer US workers now versus February 2020, and that’s part of a trend – not a one-time occurrence. The chart below shows that peak (152.5
- [US Home Prices and Global Gold Demand](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-home-prices-and-global-gold-demand/): Two Data items today: Item #1: US home prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index is 12 percent higher than a year ago through the latest data available (February 2021). That beats the best comps from the post-Housing Crisis period (October 2013, 11 percent). The only time this index has shown larger year-over-year gains was
- [Commodity Inflation Rising, Fund Flows Falling](https://datatrekresearch.com/commodity-inflation-rising-fund-flows-falling/): Three Data items today: #1: Commodity prices and consumer inflation. Next week’s Producer Price Index report will get a lot of attention as a measure of “inflation in the pipeline”. The March 2021 reading of 4.2 percent for final demand was the highest reading since September 2011’s 4.5 percent. Given the easy comps from April 2020,
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-7/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing his outlook on tech shares versus reopening trades. Check it out here!
- [Record Fintech VC Funding: Banks Getting Amazoned](https://datatrekresearch.com/record-fintech-vc-funding-banks-getting-amazoned/): Q1 2021 was the largest quarter for venture capital fintech funding on record, according to data from CB Insights (link to full report below). Today we’ll review a few key highlights from their report and offer our thoughts on what this means for the stocks of publicly held financial institutions. #1: Overall funding: VC-backed fintech companies
- [Bloomberg: "Corporate America Rides Wave of Inflation to Record Profits"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-corporate-america-rides-wave-of-inflation-to-record-profits/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "To a fundamental analyst, inflation is called ‘pricing power,’” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “And it is very good for incremental corporate earnings".... Read the full article here on Bloomberg!
- [Is US Equity Volatility Too Low?](https://datatrekresearch.com/is-us-equity-volatility-too-low/): For Data today we want to talk about US equity volatility, which has declined very quickly of late, especially as measured by our favored metric of one percent days. We like it because it measures how much investors “feel” real-time volatility with a simple count of trading sessions when the S&P 500 moves more than 1
- [April Showers Bring May Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/april-showers-bring-may-inflation/): We’ve taken a few weeks off from the topic of inflation in “Data”, mostly because we did not see it informing either stock or bond prices last month. Today we will revisit the subject. First, here’s why inflation is back on our radar screen as a near-term market driver. The following chart shows US 5- and 10-year
- [$/Oil As Macro Indicators, April Performance Data](https://datatrekresearch.com/oil-as-macro-indicators-april-performance-data/): Two “Data” items today: Topic #1: The dollar and crude oil prices as proxies for investor confidence in the strength of global economic recovery. There is some interrelation here, of course: oil is pretty much only priced in dollars around the world. Still, the fundamentals for each asset class currently pivot more on the speed of
- [Mother’s Day Spending: Recovery Case Study](https://datatrekresearch.com/mothers-day-spending-recovery-case-study/): Mother’s Day, less than 2 weeks away, will give us a good look at whether America’s ongoing vaccination rollout is starting to encourage consumers to shift their spending habits back to pre-pandemic norms. This is an important secular holiday in the US, with many Americans treating their moms, wives and/or grandmas to presents or outings. The
- [FT: "Wall Street stocks nudge higher ahead of crowded earnings week"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-wall-street-stocks-nudge-higher-ahead-of-crowded-earnings-week/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek Research: .... "Many of the world’s largest companies, from General Electric to Facebook, report quarterly earnings in the coming days. A quarter of the constituents of the S&P 500 have already reported, with 84 per cent of this group beating analysts’ forecasts, according to research house DataTrek".... Read
- [US Leisure Travel: A Slow Liftoff](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-leisure-travel-a-slow-liftoff/): Most US airline stocks have struggled to break out past their mid-March post pandemic highs despite the domestic economy continuing to reopen. What’s going on here, and what does it say about the real state of the US consumer? Let’s start by looking at trends in airline ticket prices, which is how we measure incremental real-time
- [Corp Tax Increases, Fed Funds/GDP, Tech Earnings](https://datatrekresearch.com/corp-tax-increases-fed-funds-gdp-tech-earnings/): Three Data topics today: Topic #1: US corporate taxes and midterm elections through the lens of PredictIt, an online small-money wagering market we use as a rough proxy for market sentiment. First up, PredictIt has a new contract titled “What will be the corporate tax rate for 2022?” The current rate is 21 percent, down from
- [MarketWatch: "Et tu, boomer? Millennial stock-traders aren’t all that different, one analyst argues"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-et-tu-boomer-millennial-stock-traders-arent-all-that-different-one-analyst-argues/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Ever since they reached adulthood, millennials have gotten a lot of blame for a lot of things. Recently, through the dreary days of the pandemic lockdown, they’ve taken the heat for causing wild swings in the stock market as they day-trade their fiscal stimulus checks. In a Thursday
- [Barron's: "Why Growth Stocks’ Rebound Doesn’t Mean Value’s Comeback Is Over"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-why-growth-stocks-rebound-doesnt-mean-values-comeback-is-over/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "But a recent decline in interest rates and inflation expectations has led to another reversal. The iShares S&P 500 Value ETF (ticker: IVE) has gained 3.7% in the past month while the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) is up 7.7%. In a note to clients on Tuesday, Nicholas Colas, co-founder
- [The VIX and Pullbacks, Money Flows, Gasoline Demand](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-vix-and-pullbacks-money-flows-gasoline-demand/): Three Data topics today: #1: The latest US mutual/exchange traded money flow data was out yesterday and confirms continued retail investor interest in equities. For the week ending April 14th US equity funds saw inflows of $4.8 billion. That is the same amount as the prior week, although it is well below early March inflows
- [Suburbanization of America](https://datatrekresearch.com/suburbanization-of-america/): Throughout the Pandemic Recession we’ve tracked a massive home upgrade cycle as Americans spruced up their houses amid more time spent there. Today, we want to shift our focus from the cyclical side of this discussion to a structural theme that will extend beyond the public health crisis: the suburbanization of America. A combination of low
- [Card Games, Retail Investors, and IRS Refunds](https://datatrekresearch.com/card-games-retail-investors-and-irs-refunds/): We have 3 “regular” Data Items to share today, but we want to start with something remarkable we recently heard on Quanta Magazine’s podcast “The Joy of X”. Quanta is a product of Jim Simons’ foundation, so we keep track of everything they write or produce. If it’s good enough for a chain-smoking quant billionaire, it’s
- [New Job? No Thanks. Wait… How Much?!](https://datatrekresearch.com/new-job-no-thanks-wait-how-much-2/): Three Data items today: #1: Some fresh data from the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations illuminates two important issues around US labor markets: how quickly they can return to “normal” and what employers have to offer to get the people they want. This chart shows the percent of survey takers who looked for a
- [New Job? No Thanks. Wait… How Much?!](https://datatrekresearch.com/new-job-no-thanks-wait-how-much/): Three Data items today: #1: Some fresh data from the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations illuminates two important issues around US labor markets: how quickly they can return to “normal” and what employers have to offer to get the people they want. This chart shows the percent of survey takers who looked for a
- [US Unemployment: An Urban Problem](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-unemployment-an-urban-problem/): After a highly unusual several-month lag, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has finally updated its state and local labor market statistics, so we will dedicate today’s Data section to these numbers. The central message here is that US unemployment trends are very location-specific, something the national data obviously fails to capture. By looking at state-
- [Ecommerce Losing Share as US Economy Reopens](https://datatrekresearch.com/ecommerce-losing-share-as-us-economy-reopens/): Two Data items today. #1: We really need to talk about the 10-year US Treasury. Despite a strong Retail Sales report (more on that in a minute) and other positive economic reports, yields here dropped to 1.54 pct, the lowest levels in a month. We’ve been outlining several themes in recent weeks about what’s push-pulling Treasury
- [Beige Book Starting To Get Red Hot](https://datatrekresearch.com/beige-book-starting-to-get-red-hot/): It will take both the US labor market fully recovering and inflation reaching 2 percent sustainably for the Federal Reserve to even consider raising near term rates. That’s the latest from Fed Chair Powell today at a virtual event hosted by the Economic Club of Washington, who doesn’t think that will happen before 2022. While Chair
- [FT: "Tech stocks outperform as investors note rise in Covid cases"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-tech-stocks-outperform-as-investors-note-rise-in-covid-cases/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The Treasury market has returned to its usual steady state in recent weeks, however, as investors accepted Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s view that inflation spikes would be temporary. “Treasury markets are following chair Powell’s recommendation to treat the next few months of inflation data as
- [US Inflation: Demographics, Today’s CPI Report](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-inflation-demographics-todays-cpi-report/): Today we’ll review the latest Consumer Price Index report in depth as our main course, but let’s start with an amuse bouche: a brief look at US inflation expectations by demographic cohort. The data here is from the NY Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. It shows how different age groups have responded to a question
- [Barron's: "Amid a ‘Dash for Trash,’ CCC-Rated Bonds Have the Most Upside"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-amid-a-dash-for-trash-ccc-rated-bonds-have-the-most-upside/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "That has spurred a wave of borrowing, and demand has been especially strong in lower-rated corners of bond markets, said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “The dash for trash has found a new, higher gear in US corporate bond markets,” Colas wrote in a note Monday.
- [The Street’s Fav Sectors, Gold, Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-streets-fav-sectors-gold-inflation/): Three Data items today: #1: Let’s start by circling back to the FactSet Earnings Insight report we highlighted last night for its take of which sectors Wall Street analysts think have the greatest upside right now. FactSet does this by aggregating average price targets by individual names and then bubbling that up to the sector level.
- [Barron's: "The Economic Recovery Depends on Getting Women Back to Work. Here’s Why."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-economic-recovery-depends-on-getting-women-back-to-work-heres-why/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Fed officials haven’t hidden the fact that they are focused on an inclusive recovery. Thus, it behooves investors to pay close attention to women’s labor-force participation and job growth. The Fed is unlikely to tighten monetary policy until employers can offer women their full-time jobs back, says
- [US Earnings Season: 3 Things to Know](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-earnings-season-3-things-to-know/): With US corporate earnings season kicking off this week, we’ll dedicate today’s Data section to this topic. Under ordinary circumstances, quarterly reporting cycles don’t typically have much of an influence on aggregate investor psychology. We’re not willing to be so blasé about this one, though. Valuations are high because markets believe earnings will show a rocket-like
- [Barron's: "Getting Women Back into the Workforce Is a Priority of the Fed. Here’s Why."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-getting-women-back-into-the-workforce-is-a-priority-of-the-fed-heres-why/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Fed officials haven’t hidden the fact that they are focused on an inclusive recovery. Thus, it behooves investors to pay close attention to women’s labor-force participation and job growth. The Fed is unlikely to tighten monetary policy until employers can offer women their full-time jobs back, says
- [Fast Money: M2 Velocity and US Inflation](https://datatrekresearch.com/fast-money-m2-velocity-and-us-inflation/): Our friend Art Cashin recommended we look at US velocity of money as part of our increasingly regular analysis of potential future inflation. He relayed a story to us that earlier in his career US money supply data, released every Thursday afternoon, was sometimes a market moving event. Then one day a savvy old trader told
- [Stimulus Checks: Where Do They Really Go?](https://datatrekresearch.com/stimulus-checks-where-do-they-really-go/): Three “Data” items today, all about US consumer/investor behavior and incremental household liquidity: #1: The NY Fed was out today with their take on how Americans are spending/saving their stimulus checks. There’s a link below to the entire piece, but this chart from their analysis tells the story: The “average percent spent” is the most interesting
- [US Reopening: Slow and (Hopefully) Steady](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-reopening-slow-and-hopefully-steady/): Today we’ll do our usual weekly “global traffic congestion as economic indicator” analysis based on crowdsourced TomTom GPS data, but first we want to put some capital markets context around this conversation: The US equity “reopening trade” has clearly sputtered in the last 2-3 weeks. Treasury yields have stopped rising. Bank and energy stocks, along
- [Double-Digit Returns for the S&P 500 Again in 2021?](https://datatrekresearch.com/double-digit-returns-for-the-sp-500-again-in-2021/): With vaccines rolling out, an incoming infrastructure bill and rising rates in the US, what kind of capital markets volatility and returns can US large cap equity investors expect during the balance of this year? We’ll answer that question in two parts, which both come to the same conclusion. #1: An update on our preferred benchmark
- [MarketWatch: "Dow opens modestly higher as investors await Biden infrastructure details"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-dow-opens-modestly-higher-as-investors-await-biden-infrastructure-details/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "We have always been of the opinion that markets never believed President Trump’s corporate tax cuts would be permanent. Raising them to the old levels would therefore not change our bullish outlook,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a note. “Changes in individual tax rates,
- [Investing in Space](https://datatrekresearch.com/investing-in-space/): We continue to grow more excited about innovative disruption around “Space”, as it is the next frontier to leverage Moore’s Law, a key driver behind Tech stock valuations and billions of dollars’ worth of venture capital funding. Here’s why: Moore’s Law states that semiconductor speed per dollar doubles about every 2 years. Broadly speaking, this has
- [FT: "European equities on track to record second strong quarterly gain"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-european-equities-on-track-to-record-second-strong-quarterly-gain/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The banks subsector of the index has surged 19 per cent while its industrial goods and services businesses have notched up a 9 per cent gain. The moves follow similar patterns in the US, where the broad S&P 500 has risen 5.7 per cent this
- [Yahoo Finance: "A critical driver of bull markets has stalled"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-a-critical-driver-of-bull-markets-has-stalled/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "With US equity multiples as high as they are (21.6x forward 12-month earnings) you do not want to see Wall Street analysts cutting their estimates, but that’s exactly what happened last week," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas observed in an email on Monday. Colas shared the
- [Summer 2021: Will Travel Demand Return?](https://datatrekresearch.com/summer-2021-will-travel-demand-return/): How strongly can hard-hit industries from the pandemic bounce back? Today we have an update on demand for airlines, hotels and car rental companies using real-time data: #1) Airlines: We gauge incremental real-time consumer demand and eventual profitability for this group by tracking ticket prices over time. Computer algorithms set these based on demand to maximize load
- [Q1 2021 Returns: A Year in 3 Months](https://datatrekresearch.com/q1-2021-returns-a-year-in-3-months/): With the end of the quarter fast approaching today we’ll get a jump start on what’s been working (and not) and also take a 1-year lookback at every major asset class from their (almost) lows of a year ago. The latter represents, in our view, a better measure of how markets have performed since the start
- [Is Home Depot The Real Reopening Trade?](https://datatrekresearch.com/is-home-depot-the-real-reopening-trade/): Last year the US housing stock went through a huge upgrade cycle amid lockdowns and business restrictions, but will that continue as more Americans get vaccinated and are able to travel/go out? We turned to Google Trends query volumes to find out, as people usually search for an item before making a purchase. Here’s what we
- [Small Caps Don’t Often Do Buybacks. Problem.](https://datatrekresearch.com/small-caps-dont-often-do-buybacks-problem/): Three Data items today: #1: Oil prices. We’ve been getting some client questions on whether higher oil prices might slow a US economic recovery. Today’s $61/barrel level is slightly higher than the 2019 average spot price of $57/barrel, so we are certainly facing “peak economy” energy prices with less-than-peak economic conditions. We’ve thought about this issue
- [Bloomberg: "Morgan Stanley Strategists Call Time on Early Reopening Winners"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-morgan-stanley-strategists-call-time-on-early-reopening-winners/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ..."Nothing is really “cheap” anymore, and while flows will continue to head into cyclical stocks, the latter “will have to prove that their peak earnings power is undamaged if not actually better than before,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note"... Read the full article
- [AI-Powered ETF Favoring Cyclicals](https://datatrekresearch.com/ai-powered-etf-favoring-cyclicals/): Today we have one of our occasional updates on AIEQ, a US exchange traded fund that uses IBM Watson-powered AI to make its investment decisions. Before we get started, just a quick reminder that we own a small position in this product ourselves, but otherwise have no affiliation with the fund, its sponsor, or anyone else
- [Bloomberg: "Tesla, Apple Trigger Wall Street Dreams of $3 Trillion Valuation"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-tesla-apple-trigger-wall-street-dreams-of-3-trillion-valuation/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "A $3 trillion market cap has to be a function of both the promise of a technology and some very tangible proof that its economic model is profitable, and deeply profitable,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “So you don’t get to $1 trillion, let alone
- [Fed Funds Futures Just Won’t Quit Worrying](https://datatrekresearch.com/fed-funds-futures-just-wont-quit-worrying/): Published 3/22/21 Three Data items today: #1: Fed Funds Futures are now pricing in higher probabilities of a rate increase this year. The graph below comes courtesy of the CME FedWatch tool. It shows that, despite Chair Powell’s very clear communication at last week’s press conference, markets aren’t entirely buying what he’s selling. One week ago,
- [The Dollar, Long and Short](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-dollar-long-and-short/): We’re dedicating today’s entire Data section to the value of the dollar and how this translates to US corporate earnings fundamentals. We use the Federal Reserve’s Trade Weighted Dollar Index rather than the DXY because it includes a broader and more representative basket of currencies. DXY doesn’t even have the Chinese yuan or the Mexican peso.
- [Bloomberg: "The Number of the Week Is 7"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-the-number-of-the-week-is-7/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek Research: .... "For inflation to make the switch from transitory to structural, the economy needs to see a sustained boost in capacity utilization by companies, which would allow them to raise prices more easily — as long as their peers are also experiencing tight capacity. DataTrek Research issued a report this week that
- [US Consumers Coming in Hot](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-consumers-coming-in-hot/): As the US economy reopens, we continue to consider what a post-pandemic world will look like and how strongly hard-hit industries can bounce back. Today we’ll focus on the travel and leisure industries to both gauge investment opportunities and US consumers’ propensity to spend. Here is a slew of Google Trends search volumes to assess demand:
- [Barron's: "The Dow Fell 128 Points Because Cyclical Stocks Are Taking a Breather"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-dow-fell-128-points-because-cyclical-stocks-are-taking-a-breather/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Now, the cyclical trade seems exhausted for the near term. “When should I sell my cyclical stocks?” was a question a client asked analysts at DataTrek, and Nicholas Colas, co-founder of the firm, wrote in a Tuesday morning note that it was “a logical question"... Read the
- [CNBC: "Buffett cut Apple, Baron trimmed Tesla: Billionaire market lessons on tech and growth stock selling"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-buffett-cut-apple-baron-trimmed-tesla-billionaire-market-lessons-on-tech-and-growth-stock-selling/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ...."Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, recently surveyed several hundred investors including institutions, registered investments advisors and high-net-worth individuals, and found no concern about a systemic risk to the market, but one-third of investors do believe U.S. large-cap stocks may see more pressure based on asset values. This is
- [FT: "Americans eye return to the skies as pandemic drags on"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-americans-eye-return-to-the-skies-as-pandemic-drags-on/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Americans are becoming more interested in flying again, according to a trawl of ticket prices and online search data that suggest the aviation industry is on the verge of a rebound. Jessica Rabe, analyst at research boutique Datatrek, uncovered evidence of higher fares on some
- [Bloomberg: "Cyclical Stock Rotation Has Further Room to Run"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-cyclical-stock-rotation-has-further-room-to-run/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "While the current rally in cyclical sectors since November has a “strong whiff of a ‘dash to trash’” given the quality of the companies, the pandemic could force some profound changes on industries -- especially financials and energy -- that could also spur more long-term gains, according
- [Inflation: Old School Analysis, Novel Market Pricing](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-old-school-analysis-novel-market-pricing/): We did a call today to a group of investment professionals who operate all the way from venture capital to public markets, and the topic of inflation was a prominent piece of the Q&A. We’ve been writing about this for a few months now, but the conversation led us down some paths we want to explore
- [Taxes: Inevitable and Consistent. Refunds: Not.](https://datatrekresearch.com/taxes-inevitable-and-consistent-refunds-not/): Three Data items today, with two observations about US tax policy bookending a look at 2- and 3- year Treasury yields: #1: The relationship between Federal tax receipts and the size of the US economy. With tax policy likely to become a major political and capital markets issue in the coming months, it’s important to understand
- [FOMC Preview: The Long and Short of It](https://datatrekresearch.com/fomc-preview-the-long-and-short-of-it/): With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding this Wednesday and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference the same day, today we’ll look at where markets think policy rates might go and also take a long-run look at how 10-year Treasuries trade during economic recovery. Item #1: Fed Funds Futures First, the CME FedWatch tool shows
- [Job Openings Surge, Hiring Slows](https://datatrekresearch.com/job-openings-surge-hiring-slows/): It’s clear that both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen are most focused on helping get as many Americans back to work as fast as they can and are willing to use every tool at their disposal. That’s why Powell underplayed inflation concerns in his recent WSJ interview and Yellen – a labor economist –
- [The Dow Is Industrial Again; Rotation Made It So](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-dow-is-industrial-again-rotation-made-it-so/): The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s rally to record highs is more important to the economic recovery than one may think. While it’s not Wall Street’s go-to index for US equity performance and imperfect due to its price-weighted composition, it is still the way most Americans track the domestic stock market. For example: There are far more
- [New Highs, Same as the Old Highs](https://datatrekresearch.com/new-highs-same-as-the-old-highs/): We’ve mentioned our equity valuation paradigm before, but here is a brief review. Stock prices incorporate expectations about: Future trends in return on invested capital (ROIC). Most times you’ll see this shorthanded to “earnings growth” since typically that is higher than incremental capital invested in the business. EPS growth is less useful for cyclical companies, of
- [Summer Vacation As Stock Catalyst: Airlines and Hotels](https://datatrekresearch.com/summer-vacation-as-stock-catalyst-airlines-and-hotels/): We continue to look for opportunities in sectors hard-hit by the pandemic, especially with new stimulus checks on the way and Americans traveling more with vaccinations and warmer weather. Today, we’ll focus on the airlines and hotels to assess both the US consumers’ propensity to spend and these groups’ investment merits. Here is an update on
- [Friday’s Jobs Report Was Meh, At Best](https://datatrekresearch.com/fridays-jobs-report-was-meh-at-best/): While Friday’s US Jobs Report got some pretty good press for its headline numbers, we saw it as overall neutral/disappointing. Given the pandemic shock last year, analyzing this data isn’t as straightforward as the typical cyclical recovery. Policymaker goals, and capital market expectations, to some degree, both revolve around getting the US labor market back to
- [Beige Book: Hiring Slow, Inflation Building](https://datatrekresearch.com/beige-book-hiring-slow-inflation-building/): All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell today as he speaks at a Wall Street Journal virtual event ahead of the March 16-17th policy meeting. The central bank’s latest Beige Book out today offers a window into the business conditions that the Fed’s contacts have faced since the start of the year, so it will
- [Q1 US GDP, No Cheap Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/q1-us-gdp-no-cheap-stocks/): We’ll cast both a macro and micro net today in Data, but pull both together at the end of the discussion. Macro: Is US economic growth at 8 – 10 percent, or 2 percent, or flatlining? It all depends what data you want to use. The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index says there’s no economic
- [NFTs, Big Tech, and the Net’s Original Sin](https://datatrekresearch.com/nfts-big-tech-and-the-nets-original-sin/): Marc Andreessen is fond of telling a story that describes his front-row seat to the Internet’s “original sin”. Back when he was running Netscape in the 1990s, he approached a variety of payment vendors to integrate that utility into the browser. No one, not Visa, MasterCard or any bank, had even a remote interest in working
- [DataTrek Bubble Survey Results/Analysis](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatrek-bubble-survey-results-analysis/): Today we will look at the results of last week’s DataTrek Asset Price Bubble Survey. Thanks to all who participated! We had a total of 394 responses, with the vast majority coming from the DataTrek community (98 percent). To the 9 people who responded from social media and are seeing our work for the first time
- [Retail Investors’ Feelings Matter](https://datatrekresearch.com/retail-investors-feelings-matter/): While we were writing up the clean energy stock piece last night we got to thinking about why retail investors buy these stocks in the first place. This cohort has clearly been an important piece of the sector’s marginal bid for quite a while; it’s hard to imagine most institutional investors paying such lofty valuations. We
- [Lessons from 30 Years of Cyclical Rotations](https://datatrekresearch.com/lessons-from-30-years-of-cyclical-rotations/): When I (Nick) first started covering the autos in 1991 at the old First Boston my first course of action was to meet a slew of portfolio managers and analysts to figure out what I could do to be helpful. As I visited them, I noticed many had a sine wave chart pinned to their office
- [Bloomberg: "Beaten-Up Bulls Point to Rates Rising for 'Right Reasons'"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-beaten-up-bulls-point-to-rates-rising-for-right-reasons/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... “What seem like very lofty U.S. stock valuations are defensible if (and only if) earnings bounce back strongly in the second half of the year,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a recent note. “There are certainly micro-bubbles (some SPACs, IPOs), but there’s also
- [Financials Three Ways](https://datatrekresearch.com/financials-three-ways/): We will freely confess to being only begrudgingly bullish on US Financials over the last few months. We’ve preferred cyclicals of all stripes, but really only found the group appealing because it was simply the cheapest sector in the whole S&P 500. It still is, and by a country mile. The index trades for 22.1x forward
- [Volatility 2 Ways: VIX Futures, Russell Vol](https://datatrekresearch.com/volatility-2-ways-vix-futures-russell-vol/): Today we will visit with 2 volatility/VIX related topics for “Data”. #1: The CBOE VIX Term Structure, or what the market is expecting in terms of future volatility past just the next 30 days. Here are the VIX levels priced into futures markets by month out through October 2020, with Friday’s close of 22.05 noted in
- [Benzinga: "3 Reasons Cannabis Stocks May Be Headed Lower"](https://datatrekresearch.com/benzinga-3-reasons-cannabis-stocks-may-be-headed-lower/): Excerpt from Benzinga quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "The ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF rebounded by 3.1% on Friday to around $25, but the find is still way off its February high of near $35. On Friday, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe discussed what drove the early 2021 cannabis stock rally and three reasons why it has
- [US Q1 GDP, Real Rates, TX Storm Impacts](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-q1-gdp-real-rates-tx-storm-impacts/): Three Data Items today: #1: As much as we love high-frequency economic data models, some of them should come with a health warning. We’re thinking especially of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model, which is currently “predicting” 9.5 percent GDP growth for Q1 2021. Here’s the thing though: this model is only designed to be accurate AT
- [TSLA and the “B Word”](https://datatrekresearch.com/tsla-and-the-b-word/): Analyzing Tesla’s stock may be beyond traditional analysis, but its recent purchase of bitcoin is certainly something we can assess using standard corporate finance theory. Three illustrations of this approach: #1: Reinvestment rates. When I was a single stock analyst one of my favorite C-level questions was “if I gave you $1 bn and told you
- [ESG Likes Value Stocks, But CO2 Scores Don’t](https://datatrekresearch.com/esg-likes-value-stocks-but-co2-scores-dont/): Which company do you think has a better MSCI ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) rating, ExxonMobil or Facebook? You’re smart enough to know a trick question when you see one so, yes, the answer is ExxonMobil. The funny thing is that it’s not even close. XOM is BBB rated, and FB is B. These rankings work the
- [Reuters: "Reddit rally in cannabis stocks stubbed out"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-reddit-rally-in-cannabis-stocks-stubbed-out/): Excerpt from Reuters quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Even with the short burst of interest in these names this week, Tilray and MJ were still far off their record highs in late 2018 when Canada legalized adult-use marijuana,” said Jessica Rabe, co-founder at DataTrek Research in New York, in response to email enquiries. “It’s
- [A 4-Wheeled Look at the US Economy](https://datatrekresearch.com/a-4-wheeled-look-at-the-us-economy/): We’re on a bit of an auto industry kick today, so we’ll keep the theme going with Data: #1: US auto sales as economic indicator. Few industries have the labor force multiplier effect of light vehicle manufacturing. Suppliers, manufacturers, transport companies, car dealers… All these rely on US consumers buying new cars and trucks. On the
- [Airlines > Hotels > Cruise Lines](https://datatrekresearch.com/airlines-hotels-cruise-lines/): With vaccines rolling out (albeit slowly), how are sectors hard hit by the pandemic faring in terms of staging a comeback? Today, we’ll focus on airlines, cruise lines and hotels to see 1) which makes the best investment case and 2) what the data says about the US consumer. First, here is a combination of real-time
- [BI: "The stock market is not in a bubble for these 2 reasons, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bi-the-stock-market-is-not-in-a-bubble-for-these-2-reasons-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The stock market is not yet in a bubble, but a "baby bubble" might be forming, DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said in a note on Wednesday. In order for a bubble to even form in the stock market, two conditions are necessary: fast rising valuations and
- [Barron's: "The S&P 500 Is Closing In on 4000. What Happens Next."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-sp-500-is-closing-in-on-4000-what-happens-next/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek: .... "Rising earnings expectations could boost stocks. Analysts have revised estimates higher recently, but forecasts still look low. With aggregate earnings per share on the S&P 500 tracking at around $42 for the fourth quarter and current-quarter expectations still below $41, according to DataTrek, those estimates should rise".... Read the full
- [What Do We Do With Big Tech Here?](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-do-we-do-with-big-tech-here/): There’s no bigger investment question right now than “what’s the right weighting for Big Tech in a US equity portfolio?” As a reminder, “Tech” is a very large part of the S&P 500: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Amazon and Facebook are 24 percent of the S&P. If they were their own sector they would be
- [Deconstructing the S&P 500’s YTD Return](https://datatrekresearch.com/deconstructing-the-sp-500s-ytd-return/): We’re close enough to mid-quarter Q1 2021 to start assessing what’s been driving the S&P 500’s 4.3 percent gain year to date and what this might say about investor sentiment. Four quick datapoints on this: #1: Here are the sectors with the heftiest contributions YTD towards that 4.3 percent positive return for the index, ranked
- [Barron's: "Earnings Are Growing for the First Time During the Pandemic. What That Means for Investors."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-earnings-are-growing-for-the-first-time-during-the-pandemic-what-that-means-for-investors/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek: .... "Companies representing roughly three quarters of the S&P 500’s market capitalization have reported fourth-quarter earnings, according to Credit Suisse data. Combining actual results and analyst’s increases to their calls for profits of companies that haven’t yet reported, aggregate earnings per share for the index could rise 1.7% year over year, according
- [US Jobs Report: 3 Things To Know](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-jobs-report-3-things-to-know/): January 2021’s Jobs Report, out on Friday, did little to dissuade us from the idea that markets will largely ignore these updates through Q1 of this year. The parts of the US labor market hardest hit by the pandemic – leisure, hospitality and retail – remain under pressure. This will not change in any meaningful way
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on TD Ameritrade Network](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-td-ameritrade-network-3/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on TD Ameritrade Network discussing his outlook on large caps, energy, industrials, banks and EM. Watch it here!
- [CNBC: "Powerful corporate profits and forecasts of more to come have investors cheering"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-powerful-corporate-profits-and-forecasts-of-more-to-come-have-investors-cheering/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Analysts typically are overly optimistic and start cutting estimates as the quarter wears on, but in the second quarter the opposite has happened. “That’s an unusual occurrence; the Street is usually cutting numbers by this point in the current quarter,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas said in a
- [Gold Demand Falters, Dollar Strength Surprises](https://datatrekresearch.com/gold-demand-falters-dollar-strength-surprises/): Three Data items today: #1: Gold is down 5.4 percent YTD and 13.4 percent from its August 2020 highs, so let’s look at the World Gold Council’s latest data on global exchange traded fund flows. As a reminder, these products have been the marginal bid for the yellow metal since the pandemic started. Usually, it’s jewelry
- [Yahoo Finance: "The S&P 500 is currently mirroring 2009-2010 to a 'creepy' degree: veteran hedge funder"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-the-sp-500-is-currently-mirroring-2009-2010-to-a-creepy-degree-veteran-hedge-funder/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "In the middle of March 2020, as the stock market collided with the pandemic and sank more than 30%, former hedge funder and DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas wrote that he had seen this before. “So far, this is exactly October 2008,” he wrote at the time.
- [Big Tech, Big Leverage, Big Question Mark](https://datatrekresearch.com/big-tech-big-leverage-big-question-mark/): A few weeks ago we asked the question “Why is Wall Street not anticipating any earnings leverage from Big Tech’s Q4 2020 results?” We chronicled that only Tesla’s analysts were expecting earnings growth to exceed revenue growth. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook and Amazon, not so much. (We use Yahoo Finance for Wall Street analysts’ earnings estimates
- [Inflation In The Pipeline: PPI, CPI, 5 Year TIPS](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-in-the-pipeline-ppi-cpi-5-year-tips/): Today we’ll continue the exploration of US inflation that we started 2 weeks ago with a discussion of Producer Price Inflation. What does PPI actually measure? Does it help us predict when consumer price inflation might lift off? Inquiring minds, as the old advertisements use to say, want to know. Three points on this topic: #1:
- [Bloomberg: "VIX, Skew, ETF Shorts Show Stock Market Still Pretty Far From OK"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-vix-skew-etf-shorts-show-stock-market-still-pretty-far-from-ok/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek: .... "While the VIX fell 4 points to 25.92, it remains above its long-term average of 19. Futures on the gauge are pricing in higher volatility through March. Even though the slope of the curve plotting future prices turns lower in April, levels through September remain at least one standard
- [MarketWatch: "Don’t breathe easy just yet: there’s more volatility ahead"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-dont-breathe-easy-just-yet-theres-more-volatility-ahead/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe: ..... "That’s the takeaway from an analysis by DataTrek Research, published Tuesday. The firm’s co-founder, Nicholas Colas, outlines moves in the CBOE Volatility Index, popularly known as the “VIX,” for its ticker, and often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge.” “VIX futures actually peak
- [History of 1 Pct Day Volatility, Lessons for Today](https://datatrekresearch.com/history-of-1-pct-day-volatility-lessons-for-today/): Published 2/1/21 With equity volatility ramping higher again, today we have an update on our “one percent” days analysis and what it says about market choppiness going forward. We keep track of the number of trading sessions when the S&P 500 moves more than 1 percent up or down from close to close (like today) because
- [CNBC: "Fed’s Powell just talked up a classic Buffett market bogeyman: Inflation"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-feds-powell-just-talked-up-a-classic-buffett-market-bogeyman-inflation/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC discussing what investors misunderstand about inflation's impact on stocks. Watch it here!
- [Bad January, Bad Year? What History Says](https://datatrekresearch.com/bad-january-bad-year-what-history-says/): Friday triggered our S&P 500 “January Indicator” with the S&P 500 finishing down 1.1 pct last month. There’s an old Wall Street adage that the stock market’s performance during the first month of the year can predict whether it will be positive or negative for the entire year. The idea here is that a positive first
- [IBD: "9 Stocks Made Investors Up To 928% Richer During A Wild January"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-9-stocks-made-investors-up-to-928-richer-during-a-wild-january/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "As much as we've liked U.S. small caps for many months now, it's time to lighten up," said Nicolas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. "This is not a table-pounding sell because plenty could — and should — still go right for this asset class in
- [Sideline Cash, 2021 Gold Demand, NY Fed Indicator](https://datatrekresearch.com/sideline-cash-2021-gold-demand-ny-fed-indicator/): Three data items to discuss with you today: #1: The latest readings from the New York Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index show US economic growth has largely ground to a halt over the last 2 months. This is a high frequency index the NY Fed put together right after the pandemic hit last year with the
- [MarketWatch: "GameStop saga’s real lesson: ‘Don’t short troubled companies at the start of an economic cycle’"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-gamestop-sagas-real-lesson-dont-short-troubled-companies-at-the-start-of-an-economic-cycle/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The battle between day traders and short sellers over GameStop that’s blotting out everything else on Wall Street this week offers up an important but much more lasting and practical lesson for investors, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Here’s the lesson: “Don’t short troubled
- [Currency Markets As Inflation Predictors](https://datatrekresearch.com/currency-markets-as-inflation-predictors/): “What is the data that I need to look at that could give the earliest non-false signal of sustained or high inflation that destroys the value of certain financial assets?” That question comes courtesy of a friend of DataTrek we’ve mentioned before – the +30-year Wall Street veteran, former WSJ writer, and current money manager. Today
- [Bloomberg: "This Market-Crushing AI Fund Has Moved Heavily Into U.S. Tech Stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-this-market-crushing-ai-fund-has-moved-heavily-into-u-s-tech-stocks/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ....“AIEQ’s portfolio always reminds us of the long side of a successful 1990s hedge fund manager’s book. You see a lot of well-known stocks that play well-understood themes,” said [DataTrek co-founder Nick] Colas. “Perhaps the real power of artificial intelligence-powered investing is simply not overthinking things too
- [2020 Big Tech Lobby Spend](https://datatrekresearch.com/2020-big-tech-lobby-spend/): Facebook ($19.7 million) and Amazon ($18.7 million) outspent all US companies on lobbying for a second consecutive year in 2020. They far exceeded other top spenders, including: Comcast: $14.4 million Lockheed Martin: $13.0 million Boeing: $12.6 million Northrop Grumman: $12.1 million Raytheon Technologies: $12 million Hardly a coincidence: Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos testified in front of
- [MarketWatch: "Here’s what the robot fund that’s beating the S&P 500 is investing in now"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-heres-what-the-robot-fund-thats-beating-the-sp-500-is-investing-in-now/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek: .... "Maybe one day it will be easier, when the robots can do the thinking for us. That brings us to our call of the day, which comes from the DataTrek Research blog, who wonders whether a fund that relies on artificial intelligence for investing ideas and is heavy on tech
- [Cyborg Stocks: Top ARKK/AIEQ Position Overlaps](https://datatrekresearch.com/cyborg-stocks-top-arkk-aieq-position-overlaps/): Regular readers know that on occasion we peek under the hood of AIEQ, a.k.a. The AI Powered ETF. It uses IBM Watson technology to “fully utilize artificial intelligence as a method for stock selection”. Its stated benchmarks are “broad US equity indices”, so we’ll use the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 for comparison purposes here. As
- [US Inflation 2 Ways: “Core” and Housing-Related](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-inflation-2-ways-core-and-housing-related/): We’ll continue our discussion about US inflation today with 2 separate topics: #1: Do “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data do a better job as early indicators of changes in US inflation trends? In both cases “core” means measuring price changes excluding food and energy, 2 necessary but volatile
- [Inflation: 1960 – 1982, Lessons for Today](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-1960-1982-lessons-for-today/): A longtime finance industry friend with +30 years on the clock recently asked us “what was the history of US inflation before and during the runup of the 1970s/1980s and what can that tell us about today?” This is an important topic given current levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus. It is a large topic as
- [Normal Markets: Are We There Yet?](https://datatrekresearch.com/normal-markets-are-we-there-yet/): When will things get back to normal? That will likely end up being 2021’s most asked question pretty much everywhere on planet Earth. Sitting in midtown Manhattan as I write this note, normal feels very far away indeed. The streets are for the most part empty, even though most of the residential buildings in my neighborhood
- [Yahoo Finance: "DataTrek co-Founder on his outlook for the S&P 500"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-datatrek-co-founder-on-his-outlook-for-the-sp-500/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Yahoo Finance TV discussing his outlook for US equities and how investors should be positioned. Watch it here!
- [10-Year Lookahead Survey Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/10-year-lookahead-survey-results/): Thanks to everyone who took our “DataTrek 10-Year Lookahead Survey”! We had several comments to the effect that “the questions encouraged me to think about asset allocation in some novel ways”, and that was certainly part of our goal. Before we review the responses, a few points: We had a total of 368 responses. As usual,
- [Yahoo Finance: "Why the stock market could double twice by 2040"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-why-the-stock-market-could-double-twice-by-2040/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "In a note to subscribers on Friday, DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas observed that historically, 20 years is the shortest period during which the S&P 500 (^GSPC) always produces a positive return. On average the annual returns are 10.7%, with a peak average return of around 17%.
- [MarketWatch: "Expect another quarter of big earnings beats, as Wall Street estimates were likely overly depressed"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-expect-another-quarter-of-big-earnings-beats-as-wall-street-estimates-were-likely-overly-depressed/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The big estimate cuts are likely a result of analysts assuming the worst as COVID-19 raged. With companies forced to operate largely in the dark during the pandemic, amid a disjointed U.S. government response, they were unable to provide much, if any guidance, for analysts to have
- [Big Tech Earnings Leverage: The Short Stick](https://datatrekresearch.com/big-tech-earnings-leverage-the-short-stick/): If you’ve ever hammered out an earnings model you know the concept of earnings leverage, defined as “the rate of change in corporate earnings is usually greater than the rate of change in revenues”. If you’ve been spared this particular Wall Street rite of passage, here’s how this works: In any given quarter a company’s
- [Why the S&P and EM Are Working, Gold ETF Flows](https://datatrekresearch.com/why-the-sp-and-em-are-working-gold-etf-flows/): Three Data items today: #1: It’s obviously very early in the year, but we got to thinking about the S&P 500’s 1.4 percent gain in 2021 and wondered what was driving this lift. Starting with what’s NOT working, Big Tech tops the list. Microsoft (-2.7 percent), Apple (-1.4 pct), Amazon (-2.8 pct), Google (flat, +0.1
- [Bloomberg: "S&P 500 Profit Recession May End as Companies Trounce Estimates"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-sp-500-profit-recession-may-end-as-companies-trounce-estimates/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ....“Wall Street expectations are too low for Q4 2020, so we should see plenty of beats. We need them,” Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note this week. With current estimates pointing to a sequential profit decline in the fourth quarter, a period that typically
- [CNBC: "Investors are looking for some clarity from the new earnings season, but likely won’t get it"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-investors-are-looking-for-some-clarity-from-the-new-earnings-season-but-likely-wont-get-it/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Strong 2021 earnings guidance is critical to confirm the foundation of the rally: that massive stimulus combined with an effective vaccine will result in a dramatic expansion of corporate earnings, beginning in the first quarter, and especially in the second, third and fourth quarters. “The S&P IS NOT
- [Job Openings Fall & Layoffs Jump](https://datatrekresearch.com/job-openings-fall-layoffs-jump/): Layoffs jumped while job openings pulled back as last year drew to a close. That’s the upshot from the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), providing further evidence that the US labor market recovery is stalling. We’ve reviewed JOLTS when it is out once a month for over half a decade because it is
- [Dollar Direction & Equity Sector Exposures](https://datatrekresearch.com/dollar-direction-equity-sector-exposures/): The DXY Dollar Index had a bit of a rally today, up 0.5 percent, and is 1.1 percent higher than the middle of last week; these moves are getting some attention in the financial press so let’s talk about the direction of the dollar and what it means for stocks. First, not to be that
- [IBD: "Can Stocks Keep Soaring In 2021? Just Look At The Past Five Days"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-can-stocks-keep-soaring-in-2021-just-look-at-the-past-five-days/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "There's an old Wall Street adage that the stock market's performance during the first five trading days or month of a year can predict whether the entire year will turn out good or bad," said Jessica Rabe, co-founder at DataTrek Research. "The thinking goes that
- [America’s Economic Recovery: Regional > National](https://datatrekresearch.com/americas-economic-recovery-regional-national/): Every Sunday in Disruption we look at traffic congestion patterns around the world, leveraging tech-enabled crowdsourced measurements from millions of smartphones and GPS systems. The idea here is the traffic congestion is a proxy for real-time economic activity, a particularly useful thing to measure as we consider 2021’s pace of economic recovery from last year’s deep
- [FT: "Investors look past the storming of US Capitol"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ft-investors-look-past-the-storming-of-us-capitol/): Excerpt from the Financial Times quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Markets, rightly in our view, see the US government as ultimately a stable enough set of institutions even if things occasionally go pear-shaped,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of independent research house DataTrek... ....Mr Colas at DataTrek added that among the current dogs, the likes of
- [Money Flows, Gas, and The Wall Of Worry](https://datatrekresearch.com/money-flows-gas-and-the-wall-of-worry/): Three Data items today: #1: Mutual and exchange traded fund money flows for 2020. The Investment Company Institute data is now available through December 29th, so we have a pretty good sense of the aggregate money flow numbers for the year. At the very top of the house, net capital flows for mutual funds and ETFs
- [Bloomberg: "Tech Powers Stock Rally With Stimulus in Focus"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-tech-powers-stock-rally-with-stimulus-in-focus/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Markets (rightly, in our view) see the U.S. government as ultimately a stable-enough set of institutions even if things occasionally go pear-shaped,” Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note to clients. “Politics play second fiddle to economic and corporate fundamentals when it comes to
- [Yahoo Finance: "There is an unusually high amount of cash floating around, a ‘reliable’ economic signal"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-there-is-an-unusually-high-amount-of-cash-floating-around-a-reliable-economic-signal/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "The amount of cash in circulation in the U.S. has spiked sharply, an unusual but reliable indicator that the economy is at a bottom. The spike has an “uncanny” similarity to the cash spike in 1999, DataTrek's Nicholas Colas, a former hedge fund manager, wrote in
- [10-Yr Treasury: Jan vs Rest-of-Year Performance](https://datatrekresearch.com/10-yr-treasury-jan-vs-rest-of-year-performance/): Yesterday we discussed how the S&P 500’s performance in January can be a predictor of the index’s return for the entire year. Here’s a quick recap of what we found: The correlation of the S&P’s returns in January relative to the entire year was 0.41 from 1980 - 2020, or an r-squared of 16.5 percent. That’s
- [CNBC: "Cash in circulation is soaring, and that usually means good things for the economy"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-cash-in-circulation-is-soaring-and-that-usually-means-good-things-for-the-economy/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Annual growth of US cash in circulation always peaks at the start of economic cycles,” Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in his daily report. This was the case in 1983, when the U.S. was heading out of its inflation-induced recession; 1991, as the country was
- [What January’s Return Signals for the Year](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-januarys-return-signals-for-the-year/): US equities didn't have the smoothest start to 2021, so should that give investors pause considering the weight some place on January foretelling rest of year returns? We ran the data, but first some background points on this concept: There’s an old Wall Street adage that the stock market’s performance during the first 5 trading days
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-6/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing his outlook on US equities, the energy sector and BTC. Watch it here!
- [What 2020’s Equity Volatility Says for 2021](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-2020s-equity-volatility-says-for-2021/): US equities are off to a rocky start to 2021 after an especially volatile 2020, which is exactly why we count the number of trading sessions when the S&P 500 moves more than 1 percent up or down (like today). This is our fundamental benchmark of how much investors “feel” volatility, as any one-day move greater
- [Yahoo Finance: "Sure, we could see another year of double-digit returns"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-sure-we-could-see-another-year-of-double-digit-returns/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek Research looked back at the history and observed that the market delivered three (or more) consecutive years of >10% five other times: 1942-1945, 1949-1952, 1963-1965, 1995-1999, and 2012-2014. While it wouldn’t be unprecedented to have another year of double-digit returns, it would be pretty
- [CNBC: "Investors handicapping the new market year see similarities to 2010 recovery and 1999 risk binge"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-investors-handicapping-the-new-market-year-see-similarities-to-2010-recovery-and-1999-risk-binge/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, notes: “Like the March 9, 2009, lows for US stocks, the March 23 lows [in 2020] marked ‘peak unreliability’ in terms of investors’ judgements about their environment. In both cases, fiscal and monetary policy went to work to reestablish market confidence"....
- [CNBC: "Inflation is poised to rear its head in 2021 but may not stick around long"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-inflation-is-poised-to-rear-its-head-in-2021-but-may-not-stick-around-long/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "As we scan the landscape of market commentary going into 2021, ‘the return of inflation, perhaps with a vengeance’ is a very, very common theme,” Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a note this week. Colas pointed out that 5- and 10-year break-even rates,
- [MarketWatch: "What Burst The Dot-Com Bubble, And Will It Happen Again In 2021?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-what-burst-the-dot-com-bubble-and-will-it-happen-again-in-2021/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: ... "One of the biggest questions for investors going into 2021 is whether the markets are in another tech bubble similar to the dot-com bubble back in 2000. On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said there are plenty of similarities between the tech sector in 1999
- [Bloomberg: "Day Traders Put  Stamp on Market With Unprecedented Stock Frenzy"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-day-traders-put-stamp-on-market-with-unprecedented-stock-frenzy/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "I’ve never had so many friends text me asking which beaten-down stocks to buy,” Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote to clients. “They were not fearful about losing money. They were afraid of missing out on the large snapback".... Read the full article here on
- [Bloomberg: "Stock Pickers' Faang Addiction Delivers a Harsh Blow to Workers"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-stock-pickers-faang-addiction-delivers-a-harsh-blow-to-workers/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe: .... "Jessica Rabe and Nicholas Colas, co-founders of DataTrek Research, scoured industry predictions from top consulting companies and found a common theme: an expectation that the trend to automation, digitization and remote work will stick. One of advisory firm Gartner’s top predictions is that by
- [BI: "These 3 surprises could propel US stocks higher in 2021 and break the 'three-year curse,' DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bi-these-3-surprises-could-propel-us-stocks-higher-in-2021-and-break-the-three-year-curse-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek: ..,.. "The S&P 500 is set to potentially post gains of more than 10% for the third year in a row in 2021, breaking what traders call the "three-year curse", DataTrek said in a note on Wednesday. Since 1928, the stock market has only posted three or more years
- [2021 & 2030, Shiller PE, Miami NYE](https://datatrekresearch.com/2021-2030-shiller-pe-miami-nye/): Four topics to discuss with you today. This is a Nick and Jessica mashup effort, so we’ll note the author at the top of each item. Topic #1: Forget forecasting 2021 – where will markets be in 2030 (Nick)?To our thinking, the decade of the 2020s actually starts Friday because the Gregorian calendar has no “year
- [Inflation, Tech Bubbles, Corp Bonds, US vs. Europe Traffic](https://datatrekresearch.com/inflation-tech-bubbles-corp-bonds-us-vs-europe-traffic/): Today’s report is a grab bag of 6 short items we think merit your attention, including some of our usual weekly topics as well as a few one-offs. Topic #1: US corporate credit spreads are ending 2020 tighter to Treasury yields than where they were at the end of January. Corporate bond investors are starting 2021
- [Will the S&P Change Tesla, Or Vice Versa?](https://datatrekresearch.com/will-the-sp-change-tesla-or-vice-versa/): Now that Tesla is finally in the S&P 500, there’s some attention around the question of what adding such a volatile stock might do to the index’s own stability. Let’s start an answer with a little math: Tesla is 1.6 percent of the S&P. While that is more than Berkshire Hathaway (1.4 pct) or Johnson
- [Women’s Work: The Key to 2021’s Recovery](https://datatrekresearch.com/womens-work-the-key-to-2021s-recovery/): We continue to believe that progress in female labor force participation (LFP) is a central issue to watch in gauging the strength of the US labor market and economic recovery in 2021 and beyond. History shows female LFP has been a critical long-run driver of the size of the American workforce back to World War II
- [US Regional Unemployment: Concentrated Problems](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-regional-unemployment-concentrated-problems/): The latest (November) US-state level unemployment data is out, so let’s walk through the numbers. #1: While the national unemployment rate is 6.7 percent, large swaths of the country (by land mass, if not population) are doing much better than that headline statistic: 17 states actually have unemployment rates of 5.0 percent or below. Between
- [White-Hot US Housing Market: The Real Story](https://datatrekresearch.com/white-hot-us-housing-market-the-real-story/): Disaggregating the summary information that makes for headline numbers is one of the recurring themes in our “Data” section. We find, time and again, that this yields worthwhile insights not often discussed in the financial press or other macro commentators’ analyses. Today we will use this approach to assess both US home ownership and home price
- [Double-Digit Returns for the Nasdaq in 2021?](https://datatrekresearch.com/double-digit-returns-for-the-nasdaq-in-2021/): With the Nasdaq Composite up hefty double digits year-to-date (+41.1 percent) after a double-digit total return of +35.2 pct last year, what are the odds it can return another +10 percentage points in 2021? This is not as simple of a question as one may assume at first blush. Markets discount the future with pretty brutal
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on TD Ameritrade Discussing Tech vs Energy](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-td-ameritrade-discussing-tech-vs-energy/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on the TD Ameritrade Network discussing why he sees more upside for the energy versus tech sector. Watch it here!
- [Holiday Spending Update: Not-So-Dead Zone](https://datatrekresearch.com/holiday-spending-update-not-so-dead-zone/): We’re currently in the middle of the dullest part of the Holiday season for retailers, past Black Friday/Cyber Monday but before last minute Christmas week shopping. So how is it going? A look at US Google Trends search volumes actually suggests “reasonably well”. For example: #1: Google searches for “macbook” (blue line) and “hp” (red line)
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC Discussing Tesla](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc-discussing-tesla/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC discussing why Tesla's performance this year has been so impressive, its impact on index returns and his outlook for the company as it joins the S&P 500. Watch it here!
- [Energy vs. Tech in 2021](https://datatrekresearch.com/energy-vs-tech-in-2021/): Our 2021 Look Ahead Survey showed that the DataTrek community is most bullish on Technology and Energy, so we’ll take a deeper look at those 2 groups today. In many ways they could not be more different, as the following 2 points highlight. Point #1: Current and future fundamentals, Wall Street opinions: Current net profit margins
- [2021 Look Ahead Survey Results](https://datatrekresearch.com/2021-look-ahead-survey-results/): Today we will review last week’s DataTrek 2021 Look Ahead Survey. Thanks to all who participated! A few particulars … We received a total of 307 completed surveys, the vast majority (96%) from the DataTrek community. The remaining 4% came from social media. There were 10 questions in total, 7 required and 3 optional. As with
- [A Decade of Volatility in One Year](https://datatrekresearch.com/a-decade-of-volatility-in-one-year/): Just a fraction of individual days typically make up a year’s annual US equity return. Take 2019, for example, when the S&P 500 rallied 29 percent after a major selloff in Q4 2018. Only 20, or 8 pct, of trading days accounted for that performance, and they were spread out all across the year. Therefore, in
- [JOLTS: Layoffs Rise & Hiring Slows](https://datatrekresearch.com/jolts-layoffs-rise-hiring-slows/): President-elect Joe Biden’s nomination of Janet Yellen to lead the Treasury Department makes assessing less covered labor market datasets – such as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) out today – even more important going forward. We’ve been reviewing JOLTS since Yellen was the Federal Reserve Chair as it includes one of her preferred
- [MarketWatch: "How oil prices — and the Dow — signal confidence in a ‘normal’ economic recovery from COVID chaos"](https://datatrekresearch.com/marketwatch-how-oil-prices-and-the-dow-signal-confidence-in-a-normal-economic-recovery-from-covid-chaos/): Excerpt from MarketWatch quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe: .... "Don’t let the green energy revolution fool you into thinking crude oil prices don’t have something to say about the economic outlook. So cautions Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Tuesday note that takes a close look at oil market fluctuations and
- [Dow Says “Recovery”](https://datatrekresearch.com/dow-says-recovery/): What’s driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s new highs after finally breaking out in mid-November? Two points to set the discussion: The Dow hit a new all-time high on November 16th after going through first a sharp shock from the old highs in February to late March and then slowly recovering thereafter. Since the close on
- [What US Cabinet Departments Really Do](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-us-cabinet-departments-really-do/): With US President-elect Joe Biden starting to pick his cabinet Secretaries for various Federal departments, today we will look at how these institutions actually spend their budgets. The goal here is twofold: Provide a sense of relative scale about where the Federal government’s $5.6 trillion in 2020FY outlays were spent. This was $2 trillion more (+56
- [Holiday 2020 Shows 2021’s Pent Up Demand](https://datatrekresearch.com/holiday-2020-shows-2021s-pent-up-demand/): As we continue to explore where marginal consumption will rebound with a 2021 vaccine rollout, a look at US Holiday 2020 air travel patterns helps shed light on identifying sources of pent-up demand. A few points to frame this discussion: Computer algorithms set ticket prices based on demand to maximize load factors and total revenues, so
- [2021: The Expectations Game](https://datatrekresearch.com/2021-the-expectations-game/): Today for Data we’re going to consider two simple, interrelated questions: what can the S&P 500 earn in 2021, and what do current stock prices expect? We will answer that question with our customary 3-point format: #1: Let’s begin by looking at Wall Street’s 2021 earnings estimates, not because they are right but because they are
- [Holiday 2020: Online vs Physical Shopping](https://datatrekresearch.com/holiday-2020-online-vs-physical-shopping/): With two major US shopping days behind us – Black Friday and Cyber Monday – here’s what we know so far in terms of how Q4 consumer spending is going, courtesy of Adobe Digital Insights: Black Friday: Online spending hit $9 billion the day after Thanksgiving, up 21.6 percent year-over-year. That was the second-biggest online spending
- [ESG: Growth Prospects and Market Impact](https://datatrekresearch.com/esg-growth-prospects-and-market-impact/): Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing has been much in the news lately. Three thoughts on this trend. #1: Global investor interest in ESG is clearly growing. This is a Google Trends chart showing the volume of global searches for “ESG” over the last 5 years. Interest first started to break out in Q4 2019, rose to
- [Double-Digit Returns for the Russell in 2021?](https://datatrekresearch.com/double-digit-returns-for-the-russell-in-2021/): With the Russell 2000 up double digits year-to-date (+10.0 pct) after a double-digit total return of 23.7 pct last year, what are the odds we can get yet another +10 point return in 2021? While this may seem like an overly simplistic question, it’s not. Markets discount the future with ferocious efficiency, so it’s actually unusual
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-5/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing whether the stimulus trade is back on and what it means for corporate earnings. He also gave his outlook on the tech trade. Watch it here!
- [Benzinga: "Best Buy, Etsy Among 2020 Black Friday's Big Winners"](https://datatrekresearch.com/benzinga-best-buy-etsy-among-2020-black-fridays-big-winners/): Excerpt from Benzinga quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "On Tuesday, DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said Google Trends search data suggests clear retail winners and losers this Black Friday. Traditional American department stores are likely taking a hit this year, Colas said. Google Trends indicates search volume for Macy's and Nordstrom was down significantly from Nov. 24 to Nov.
- [What 2020’s Equity Vol Says About December](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-2020s-equity-vol-says-about-december/): The S&P 500 has moved more than 1 percent up or down on 108 trading days so far this year, or almost half the time. That’s our fundamental benchmark of how much investors “feel” volatility, as any one-day move greater than 1 pct to the upside or downside is +1 standard deviation from the S&P’s mean
- [US Home Prices, Chinese Corporate Bonds](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-home-prices-chinese-corporate-bonds/): Two “Data” items today regarding issues recently in the news: Topic #1: US Home Prices – how long can increases continue at this pace? Today, the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index printed a 7.0 percent annual increase for September. This was the largest year-on-year increase since May 2014, when home prices were finally recovering from the
- [VIX’s 1H 2021 Prediction, Measuring Inflation 2 Ways](https://datatrekresearch.com/vixs-1h-2021-prediction-measuring-inflation-2-ways/): A bit of a smorgasbord of Data topics today, but each with a direct read-through to US equity markets, economy, and Fed policy. #1: This is the one time of the year where you have to look at the entire CBOE VIX term structure (all expirations) rather than just the front month prices quoted in
- [Mobility Data From US, Europe, Asia](https://datatrekresearch.com/mobility-data-from-us-europe-asia-2/): It seems like not an hour goes by now that we don’t hear about fresh curbs on economic activity as countries and cities around the world try to curb the spread of the virus. Measuring the impact of these initiatives on output/labor conditions is difficult, and not just because these efforts are different everywhere around the
- [Barron's: "More Zombie Companies Have Cropped Up During the Pandemic. Why Concerns Are Overblown."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-more-zombie-companies-have-cropped-up-during-the-pandemic-why-concerns-are-overblown/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek Research: .... "The issue of zombies companies isn’t new, however. The International Monetary Fund, in a report cited by Yardeni Research, feared in October 2019 that zombie companies’ debt could soon rise to $19 trillion, or 40% of all corporate debt in major economies. The percentage of all global public
- [Mobility Data From US, Europe, Asia](https://datatrekresearch.com/mobility-data-from-us-europe-asia/): It seems like not an hour goes by now that we don’t hear about fresh curbs on economic activity as countries and cities around the world try to curb the spread of the virus. Measuring the impact of these initiatives on output/labor conditions is difficult, and not just because these efforts are different everywhere around the
- [Would You Take The Vaccine? Many Say “No” …](https://datatrekresearch.com/would-you-take-the-vaccine-many-say-no/): Investors welcomed Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna’s virus vaccines showing +90-95 percent effectiveness rates, but there’s still another piece of the puzzle to evaluate: will enough Americans be willing to get a vaccine to meaningfully/quickly stem the pandemic? Recent surveys show it could take some time to convince the vast majority of the American population. For example: #1:
- [Bloomberg: "Active Management Is Paying Off for the S&P 500 Index Keepers"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-active-management-is-paying-off-for-the-sp-500-index-keepers/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Fast-forward to now, and no such housecleaning has occurred. Instead, loath to create disruption, the keepers of the benchmark exhibited patience, waiting to see how the market evolved. Today, that tolerance is looking prescient. After the S&P 500 surged 25% since mid-May, the total number of
- [Travel and Leisure’s Loss is Retail’s Gain](https://datatrekresearch.com/travel-and-leisures-loss-is-retails-gain/): The US travel and leisure industry are in for a tough Holiday 2020 as virus cases rise and Americans stay closer to home as a result. The American Automobile Association (AAA) is out with their latest annual forecasts for Thanksgiving this year; here’s what they expect: Overall travel: a 9.7 pct y/y fall to 50.6 million travelers
- [Retail Sales and Georgia’s Senate Races](https://datatrekresearch.com/retail-sales-and-georgias-senate-races/): Two issues to discuss with you: #1: Today’s US Retail Sales report was a touch disappointing, so let’s talk about it. Of all the topics Jessica and I discuss every day in preparing these notes for you, we’re spending by far the most time considering the health of the US consumer. As much as we’re bullish
- [BI: "Two reasons why the S&P 500 will see its fastest-ever earnings recovery, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bi-two-reasons-why-the-sp-500-will-see-its-fastest-ever-earnings-recovery-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "But this time around, it could just be one year for corporations to hit new records in profits. "Start with a solid base of corporate earnings in Q3 2020, add what we all hope is a highly effective virus vaccine, stir in still-low interest rates and
- [Positive Market Signals: Treasuries, Yuan, Financial Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/positive-market-signals-treasuries-yuan-financial-stocks/): Today we’d like to refresh/update several data points we’ve been showing you in recent months and see what they have to say about current market and economic conditions: #1: The difference between 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields, which is the basis of the widely watched New York Federal Reserve Recession Probabilities Model. This indicator is only
- [2021: Fastest Earnings Recovery Ever](https://datatrekresearch.com/2021-fastest-earnings-recovery-ever/): As mentioned in “Markets” today, we want to take a deep dive into Wall Street’s S&P 500 profit projections for 2021 in Data. Three points here, using FactSet’s weekly Earnings Insight report for the Street’s out-year expectations (link to their full report below). #1: Analysts expect 2021 to be a record year for S&P 500 profitability,
- [Benzinga: "3 Takeaways From The SpaceX Starlink Beta Test"](https://datatrekresearch.com/benzinga-3-takeaways-from-the-spacex-starlink-beta-test/): Excerpt from Benzinga quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "In the past couple of weeks, SpaceX has begun sending out invitations for users to beta test its Starlink low-earth orbit (LEO) internet service. On Thursday, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe outlined three major takeaways from the Starlink beta test... ...Starlink represents “classic disruption.” Assuming the
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on The Compound Show w/ Josh Brown](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-the-compound-show-w-josh-brown/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on the latest episode of The Compound Show with Josh Brown, discussing everything from his outlook on US vs Emerging Markets and European equities to autonomous vehicles and what he's learned during his 30 years on Wall Street. Listen to it here!
- [CNBC: "How a Joe Biden presidency could benefit international stocks"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-how-a-joe-biden-presidency-could-benefit-international-stocks/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas said he also will be watching the Chinese companies embroiled in controversies with U.S. officials. “What I’m looking for is to see what happens with all the blacklisting of Chinese companies that we saw under the Trump administration and if we begin
- [BI: "Google searches for 'anxiety' have hit 16-year peak, as US COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations spike, says analyst DataTrek"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bi-google-searches-for-anxiety-have-hit-16-year-peak-as-us-covid-19-infections-and-hospitalizations-spike-says-analyst-datatrek/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "DataTrek said searches for "anxiety" between the start of July up to last week had been 5% higher than the same period in 2019. Queries abated after the first wave in May, but have remained at uniformly high levels for just over 4 months, it
- [Record Google Searches for Anxiety](https://datatrekresearch.com/record-google-searches-for-anxiety/): It’s safe to say that 2020 has been an especially challenging year, but how much has it impacted Americans’ psyche? We continue to highlight a slew of high frequency indicators to gauge economic growth and its effects on 2021 earnings expectations as well as investor sentiment. But it’s also important to dig deeper and understand that
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on CNBC](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-cnbc/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC's "ETF Edge" discussing his outlook on value stocks. Watch it here!
- [Correlations Show Crowded Trades](https://datatrekresearch.com/correlations-show-crowded-trades/): We’re dedicating today’s Data section to asset price correlations, something we’ve done in one form or another every month for 12 years running ever since the depths of the Financial Crisis in October 2008. While not as widely discussed as valuation metrics or performance data, correlations are important for 2 reasons: Volatility and correlations have a
- [Take This Job And… Pandemic Edition](https://datatrekresearch.com/take-this-job-and-pandemic-edition/): One of our favorite measures of US worker confidence rose to a record high in September based on the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey out today. We call this our “Take this job and shove it indicator” because it is a ratio of quits (i.e. number of people voluntarily leaving their jobs) to total
- [CNBC: "ETFs could see record inflows in December thanks to two key catalysts, market analyst says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-etfs-could-see-record-inflows-in-december-thanks-to-two-key-catalysts-market-analyst-says/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on CNBC's ETF Edge discussing why ETF flows could see record inflows in December. Watch it here!
- [Double-Digit Returns for the S&P 500 in 2021?](https://datatrekresearch.com/double-digit-returns-for-the-sp-500-in-2021/): With the S&P 500 up almost double digits year-to-date (9.9 percent) after a double-digit total return of +31.2 pct last year, what are the odds we can get another two-digit return in 2021? This might seem like an overly simplistic question, but it is not. If we do hold our 2020 gains and get another 10+
- [S&P 500, Emerging Mkts, EAFE: Which Is Best?](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-500-emerging-mkts-eafe-which-is-best-2/): In Data today we will continue our discussion of portfolio positioning for 2021 with a comparative look at US large caps versus MSCI EAFE (non-US developed economies) and MSCI Emerging Markets indices. First up, current valuation math using IBES estimates for the next 12 months of earnings: S&P 500: trades for 20.2x forward earnings MSCI
- [S&P 500, Emerging Mkts, EAFE: Which Is Best?](https://datatrekresearch.com/sp-500-emerging-mkts-eafe-which-is-best/): In Data today we will continue our discussion of portfolio positioning for 2021 with a comparative look at US large caps versus MSCI EAFE (non-US developed economies) and MSCI Emerging Markets indices. First up, current valuation math using IBES estimates for the next 12 months of earnings: S&P 500: trades for 20.2x forward earnings MSCI
- [Benzinga: "3 Reasons Marijuana Stocks Are Soaring"](https://datatrekresearch.com/benzinga-3-reasons-marijuana-stocks-are-soaring/): Excerpt from Benzinga quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: Election Takeaways: On Thursday, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe said there are three big-picture takeaways for cannabis stock investors from Tuesday’s election results: One in three Americans now lives in a state in which recreational marijuana is legal. Not only has the latest vote expanded the number of legal
- [Gold ETFs, Googling Unemployment, LFP](https://datatrekresearch.com/gold-etfs-googling-unemployment-lfp/): Published 11/5/20 in the DataTrek Morning Briefing Three Data items today: #1: As we recently highlighted, exchange traded fund investors around the world are driving marginal gold demand and therefore near-term price moves. That trend is clearly visible in this chart from the World Gold Council’s latest ETF flows commentary. It shows gold prices (gold-colored line)
- [US Small Caps: Pros and Cons for 2021](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-small-caps-pros-and-cons-for-2021/): There are only 39 more trading days left in 2020, so today we’ll start what will be a regular series through year-end on the topic of positioning portfolios for 2021. The issue today: which will perform better next year – the S&P 500 or the Russell 2000? Here is our framework for answering that question: #1:
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Reuters TV](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-reuters-tv-4/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing which sectors stand to benefit from Joe Biden winning the presidency. You can watch it here!
- [DataTrek's Nick Colas on Bloomberg Radio](https://datatrekresearch.com/datatreks-nick-colas-on-bloomberg-radio-5/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Bloomberg Radio discussing the biggest risk factors to the capital markets and his current sector strategy. Listen to it here!
- [2020 Retail Holiday Forecast](https://datatrekresearch.com/2020-retail-holiday-forecast/): The last two months of the year are the most important for retailers to make incremental sales, so how will American stores and online shopping destinations do with no new fiscal stimulus and virus cases on the rise? The National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics are out with their Annual 2020 Holiday Survey for
- [IBD: "This 87% Accurate Stock Market Indicator Now Calls For A Trump Win"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-this-87-accurate-stock-market-indicator-now-calls-for-a-trump-win/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "What's this off-the-charts election uncertainty mean for S&P 500 investors? Don't assume the news is priced in, says Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. "Prediction markets and online bookmakers have no clear take on either who will win the U.S. presidency or which party will
- [What 2020’s Equity Vol Says About 2021](https://datatrekresearch.com/what-2020s-equity-vol-says-about-2021/): Published 11/2/20 The S&P 500 has moved more than 1 percent up or down on almost half (47 pct) of trading days thus far in 2020. That’s our fundamental benchmark of how much investors “feel” volatility, as any one-day move greater than 1 pct to the upside or downside is +1 standard deviation from the S&P’s
- [CNN Business: "The 2000 recount was a mess. A contested election now would be much scarier for Wall Street"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnn-business-the-2000-recount-was-a-mess-a-contested-election-now-would-be-much-scarier-for-wall-street/): Excerpt from CNN Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "But Nicholas Colas, a Wall Street veteran and co-founder of DataTrek Research, expects markets to look past spurious lawsuits that have little chance of changing the outcome. "The market will have a high-quality BS meter on lawsuits from both sides," said Colas. He also expressed
- [Bloomberg: "Charts Traders Will Be Nervously Refreshing on Election Night"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-charts-traders-will-be-nervously-refreshing-on-election-night/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Marijuana legalization is also on the ballot in four states this November and legalization in a place like New Jersey may encourage other legislatures to follow suit. So pot stocks can be a proxy for broader election results, says Jessica Rabe, co-founder at DataTrek Research".... Read the
- [ETFs Are Setting Gold Prices Now](https://datatrekresearch.com/etfs-are-setting-gold-prices-now/): Two Data items today: Topic #1: The World Gold Council was out last week with its Q3 2020 industry review. Three points of interest: First, gold demand fell to 892 tons last quarter, down 12 percent from Q2 (1016 tons) and 18 percent lower than Q1 (1,084 tons). Unsurprisingly, jewelry demand was weak at 333 tons,
- [Big Tech Lobby Spend Q3 2020](https://datatrekresearch.com/big-tech-lobby-spend-q3-2020/): While the CEOs of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Facebook testified in front of Congress on antitrust grounds last July, those “Big Tech” companies were also ramping up their DC lobby spending in the same quarter. Today, the CEOs of Facebook, Google and Twitter testified in front of Congress over another issue: censorship concerns. We’re sure they
- [College Degrees Losing Their Value](https://datatrekresearch.com/college-degrees-losing-their-value/): Fears about the latest crisis delaying economic progress for millions of younger Americans continue to grow, but how is this cohort actually doing? Today we have an update on their current unemployment situation using new data from the New York Federal Reserve. Here’s how young workers with and without a college degree are faring (rates calculated
- [WSJ: "Retail Stocks Are Hot Heading Into the Holiday Season"](https://datatrekresearch.com/wsj-retail-stocks-are-hot-heading-into-the-holiday-season/): Excerpt from the Wall Street Journal quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "We all left retail for dead three months ago,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of research firm DataTrek. Yet there are reasons to believe the retailers that survive this year have upside in the years ahead, he said... ...In essence, what 2020 did was force a
- [Airline Travel Trends: Leisure > Business, Barely](https://datatrekresearch.com/airline-travel-trends-leisure-business-barely/): There’s a statistic receiving a lot of attention recently: over one million people were screened at US Transportation Security Administration airport checkpoints on 10/18. Many are viewing that datapoint as an economically bullish sign, with more Americans flying than any day since lockdowns commenced back in March despite virus cases on the rise. Fair enough, but
- [CNBC: "Worried about contested election? Here’s what went down in stocks during 2000 Bush-Gore battle"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-worried-about-contested-election-heres-what-went-down-in-stocks-during-2000-bush-gore-battle/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "In the end, the question isn’t which stocks — whether tech stocks, or any stocks — might tank amid election squabbling. It’s what stocks to buy after market volatility takes its toll to gain the quickest rebound in the U.S. market. Think small, according to DataTrek.
- [Business Insider: "Futures traders aren't betting on any Fed rate hikes by mid-2022, no matter what the Treasury market suggests, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-futures-traders-arent-betting-on-any-fed-rate-hikes-by-mid-2022-no-matter-what-the-treasury-market-suggests-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The US Treasury market suggests investors are betting on a swift improvement in the economy that could prompt the Federal Reserve to put up interest rates before 2023, as the central bank has outlined could mark the first rise. But data analysts DataTrek say US
- [Value Is Catching Up (Really!), Fed Funds Still Flat](https://datatrekresearch.com/value-is-catching-up-really-fed-funds-still-flat/): Two Data items today: #1: With all the recent excitement about higher long-term Treasury rates, we got to wondering if any of this optimism over economic growth has filtered through to Fed Funds Futures (FFF) contracts. These have been, for many years now, much better indicators of shifts in Fed policy than either Wall Street economists
- [CNBC: "Corporate execs are talking differently on earnings calls to please the machines"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-corporate-execs-are-talking-differently-on-earnings-calls-to-please-the-machines-2/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Humans are taking machines and using them to analyze emotional signals so we can analyze other humans more efficiently,” said DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas. “But the machines are doing it on a scale humans could never do. There’s an endless loop that is being set up, and expect this
- [US State/City Unemployment: Dramatic Differences](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-state-city-unemployment-dramatic-differences/): The latest US state- and city-level unemployment data was out today; here are 3 points to consider: #1: Although the national unemployment rate declined in September to 7.9 percent from 8.4 percent in August, the improvement was not spread evenly around the country. Here are the month-to-month differences for the 15 most populous US states (where
- [CNBC: "Corporate execs are talking differently on earnings calls to please the machines"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-corporate-execs-are-talking-differently-on-earnings-calls-to-please-the-machines/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "Humans are taking machines and using them to analyze emotional signals so we can analyze other humans more efficiently,” said DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas. “But the machines are doing it on a scale humans could never do. There’s an endless loop that is being set up, and expect
- [Benzinga: "Do Millennials Care About The Stock Market?"](https://datatrekresearch.com/benzinga-do-millennials-care-about-the-stock-market/): Excerpt from Benzinga quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Millennials’ Tougher Financial Road: DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe told Benzinga the experiences millennials have faced in their young professional lives have certainly shaped their approach to the markets. “Millennials’ approaches to money differ from their Baby Boomer parents because of record levels of student loan debt and
- [Bonding Experiences: Corporate Spreads, US/Italian Treasuries](https://datatrekresearch.com/bonding-experiences-corporate-spreads-us-italian-treasuries/): Two items today: Topic #1: The balances at the Federal Reserve’s Corporate Credit Facilities have barely budged in 3 months, so it’s a good time to see where marginally rated corporate bonds are “really” trading (i.e. in the absence of central bank intervention). As a reminder: during the capital market dislocations earlier in 2020, Treasury
- [NY Fed’s Weekly Econ Index, Initial Claims Deep Dive](https://datatrekresearch.com/ny-feds-weekly-econ-index-initial-claims-deep-dive/): Three Data items today: #1: The NY Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) continues to show generally steady improvement in the US economy. The WEI uses a set of high frequency indicators to evaluate American economic output in almost real-time. These include initial/ongoing claims for unemployment insurance, same-store retail sales, steel production, gasoline and electricity usage, and
- [September Money Flows, Sentiment Indicators](https://datatrekresearch.com/september-money-flows-sentiment-indicators/): Today we have three data-driven thoughts on where US investor/consumer sentiment currently sits: First up, one of our favorite Wall Street/Main Street indicators: the number of US Google searches for “dow jones”. This is a great contrarian indicator, because when volumes spike by 5-10x in a short period of time you know sentiment is bad enough
- [Q3 VC Funding Steady, A Positive for Stocks](https://datatrekresearch.com/q3-vc-funding-steady-a-positive-for-stocks/): How has the pandemic impacted 2020’s venture capital funding and IPO markets? Crunchbase just came out with its Q3 2020 Global Funding report, and here is a summary of their data: Funding in Q3 2020: Global venture funding rose slightly to $76.4 bn, up 1% q/q and 9% y/y. Areas of growth: “Crunchbase data shows increased investment between
- [Hedging Stocks With Bonds And Gold](https://datatrekresearch.com/hedging-stocks-with-bonds-and-gold/): We’ve been writing about asset price correlations every month since October 2009 for basically one reason: they are simultaneously one of the most watched and least understood data points in capital markets. It seems like not a day goes by without seeing some commentary about how strange it is that gold or long-dated Treasuries or even
- [Russell vs. NASDAQ: History and Today](https://datatrekresearch.com/russell-vs-nasdaq-history-and-today/): Today we want to look at the historical out- and under-performance of the Russell 2000 US small cap stock index versus the NASDAQ Composite Index, perennially heavy with US technology sector exposure. Over the last 20 years, both have gone through periods of besting the other. The question now is “Which is the right place to
- [Female LFP: Key to Economic Recovery](https://datatrekresearch.com/female-lfp-key-to-economic-recovery/): There’s a statistic making the rounds in the news and on social media from last Friday’s jobs report: out of the almost 1.1 million workers aged 20 and over that left the labor force in September, 80% were women (865k). The broad consensus regarding this development: childcare needs at home are pushing women out of the
- [Large Cap Industrials Working, Yield Curve Lags](https://datatrekresearch.com/large-cap-industrials-working-yield-curve-lags/): Two topics in “Data” today: #1: We’ve been recommending US large cap Industrials for a few months now, so let’s check in on how they’re doing and assess what might be left in the tank. To do that we will take a longer-term view at how this group fares across cycles. Here is a chart which
- [JOLTS: What Delay In Stimulus Means for US Labor Market](https://datatrekresearch.com/jolts-what-delay-in-stimulus-means-for-us-labor-market/): There are still 10.7 million fewer jobs in the US as compared to February 2020 according to September’s Employment Situation report, with leisure and hospitality accounting for over a third (36% or 3.84 million) of all positions still missing. That’s a significant portion of the labor force held back by COVID-19 and its mitigation measures, and
- [Bloomberg: "A $19 Billion Bond ETF Shows the ‘60/40’ Strategy Still Works"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-a-19-billion-bond-etf-shows-the-60-40-strategy-still-works/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas: .... "The fact that this measure signals long-dated Treasury volatility is above its historical lows means that the debt can still serve as a “reliable hedge” of equity risk, according to DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas. The traditional portfolio mix of 60% stocks and 40% fixed-income -- a bedrock
- [Crain's NY: "Recreational pot could soon be a PATH trip away"](https://datatrekresearch.com/crains-ny-recreational-pot-could-soon-be-a-path-trip-away/): Excerpt from Crain's NY Business quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "If the measure passes, the New Jersey Legislature would need to adopt retail regulations, growth limits and so on. Jessica Rabe, co-founder of Wall Street firm DataTrek Research, which tracks the cannabis industry, said that because medical marijuana is already legal in New Jersey it should take only
- [Growth vs Value: Last 10 Years](https://datatrekresearch.com/growth-vs-value-last-10-years/): The kickoff question: why was ExxonMobil the most important name in the S&P 500 at year-end 2010? XOM was 3.1% of the index back then, followed by Apple (2.5%) and Microsoft (2.0%). Today, of course, things look very different. XOM is down to a 0.5% weighting in the S&P while AAPL (6.5%) and MSFT (5.6%) are
- [LFP: Most Worrisome Number](https://datatrekresearch.com/173669-2/): Three points on the latest US Employment Situation report out on Friday: #1: The number of jobs added was light versus expectations (+661,000 vs. 800,000), which raises concerns about slowing momentum in the US labor market. But is it reasonable to expect job recoveries to improve smoothly? Here is what the data says: 2010 US jobs
- [Mythbusting US Tax Rates and European Cash](https://datatrekresearch.com/mythbusting-us-tax-rates-and-european-cash/): Two topics today: Topic #1: Yes, we watched the US Presidential debate last night, and no, we don’t want to talk about it, but it did remind us of a useful dataset that looks at Federal tax receipts as a percent of GDP. A longtime (and very successful) money management client pointed out this relationship to
- [Nov-Dec 2000 US Sector Performance](https://datatrekresearch.com/nov-dec-2000-us-sector-performance/): Some investors are increasingly worried about a contested US presidential election outcome this November, so today we’re updating our “November-December 2000 Election Playbook” by breaking down sector, small cap and gold returns. The 2000 national election was the only modern-day contested presidential election outcome, so it’s the single case study we have to assess how US
- [2009 Playbook Update, Wealthy US HHs 2021 Budgets](https://datatrekresearch.com/2009-playbook-update-wealthy-us-hhs-2021-budgets/): Two items to cover today: #1: The New York Fed was out with its 3x/year SCE Household Spending Survey, and 3 of their findings here caught our eye: First: contrary to the popular narrative of wealthy households spending heavily while less affluent ones cut back during the COVID Recession, the Fed survey finds that through
- [CNN Business: "Amazon's Prime Day highlights the huge stakes ahead for retail"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnn-business-amazons-prime-day-highlights-the-huge-stakes-ahead-for-retail/): Excerpt from CNN Business quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Consumers' plans to spend a record figure individually on Halloween this year sets a positive tone going into the most important season for retail sales," Jessica Rabe of DataTrek Research said in a recent note to clients".... Read the full article here on CNN Business!
- [IBD: "New 72-Year Study Reveals Where Stocks Are Headed"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-new-72-year-study-reveals-where-stocks-are-headed/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Predicting the S&P 500's future is the cornerstone of financial models. And now, a new analysis puts estimates for the next 20 years into context... The answer? An average annual gain of at least 7% from the S&P 500 looks probable in the next 20 years.
- [US Gas Demand Says V-Recovery Missing Last 10%](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-gas-demand-says-v-recovery-missing-last-10/): Three Data items today, all with different takes on the pace and nuances of a US economic recovery: #1: Gasoline demand as a proxy for how quickly things are getting back to “normal”. The following chart from the US Energy Information Institute shows 4-week average US gasoline demand in 2020 (blue line) versus 2019 (tan line)
- [Gold Vs. S&P 500, Tesla & QQQ](https://datatrekresearch.com/gold-vs-sp-500-tesla-qqq/): Two topics today – gold and Tesla: #1: A look at the relative performance of gold versus the S&P 500. First, an observation: if you just use single date starting points you can paint gold as either hero or zero in terms of its relative performance to US stocks. For example: Since 1990: gold lags the
- [Fed COVID Stress Test Scenarios: Bad, and Alt Bad](https://datatrekresearch.com/fed-covid-stress-test-scenarios-bad-and-alt-bad/): As with our “Markets” section in our Full Report today, we’ll take the quiet day to catch up on a few topics: #1: The Federal Reserve was out last week with its COVID bank stress test scenarios; the ones banks will have to pass later this year. This is on top of the usual annual stress
- [Market Risk From Election Day to Q1 2021](https://datatrekresearch.com/market-risk-from-election-day-to-q1-2021/): Every month we dedicate one Data section to implied volatilities; given recent volatility we will focus on the CBOE VIX Index today in our usual 3-point format: #1: First up, let’s look at the prices of all upcoming expirations for a sense of how this market is considering future S&P 500 volatility over the next
- [US Unemployment: Location, Location, Location](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-unemployment-location-location-location/): The August state-level US unemployment data was out on Friday, and we have 3 points of interest on this data. We’ve been looking at these statistics since the start of the COVID Crisis because they show exactly where joblessness is highest, lowest and what the trend lines are. #1: While the national unemployment rate was 8.4%
- [CNBC: "Investors could be overplaying the election as a lasting driver of the stock market, history shows"](https://datatrekresearch.com/cnbc-investors-could-be-overplaying-the-election-as-a-lasting-driver-of-the-stock-market-history-shows/): Excerpt from CNBC quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "Jessica Rabe,co-founder of DataTrek Research, notes that the S&P 500 slipped 4.2% in the five weeks from Election Day 2000 until the Supreme Court ruled George W. Bush the winner. Yet it came shortly after an already pressured Nasdaq absorbed major earnings warnings from Microsoft and
- [High Frequency Fed Indicators Going into Q4](https://datatrekresearch.com/high-frequency-fed-indicators-going-into-q4/): With the Fed increasingly using high frequency data to assess the state of the US economy in real time, today we have an update heading into Q4. Now that Summer travel and festivities are over, here’s how two non-traditional datasets published by regional Feds look as we transition into fall: #1: The Dallas Fed Mobility and
- [Forbes: "Here’s Why Delayed Election Results Might Not Lead To A Market Sell-Off Like In 2000"](https://datatrekresearch.com/forbes-heres-why-delayed-election-results-might-not-lead-to-a-market-sell-off-like-in-2000/): Excerpt from Forbes quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "While DataTrek acknowledges that yes, election uncertainty could still contribute to short-term stock market volatility this year, “long-lasting and significant volatility usually stems from an economic shock as opposed to politically related issues".... ....“All in all, yes a contested Trump versus Biden race could rattle the
- [Bloomberg: "Home Improvement Stocks Vie With Tech for an Investor Reckoning"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-home-improvement-stocks-vie-with-tech-for-an-investor-reckoning/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "The Covid-19 crisis pulled forward record levels of demand for home improvement projects as many consumers had more time and money to work on their residences,” Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a note Tuesday. “Once there’s a vaccine it will enable a greater share
- [Bloomberg: "Unbeatable Overnight Gains Fuel Theories on Who’s Driving Them"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bloomberg-unbeatable-overnight-gains-fuel-theories-on-whos-driving-them/): Excerpt from Bloomberg quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Whatever the reason, outsize overnight gains tends to attract attention following downturns and rebounds, according to DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas. “It’s been an on-again, off-again topic over many years,” Colas said. “People notice it during periods of volatility and it’s counterintuitive -- the U.S. market is open
- [BI: "Fewer Americans will mark Halloween, but they'll spend a record high, making for a cheery holiday season"](https://datatrekresearch.com/bi-fewer-americans-will-mark-halloween-but-theyll-spend-a-record-high-making-for-a-cheery-holiday-season/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "There are only 72 days until Black Friday, so consumers' plans to spend a record figure individually on Halloween this year sets a positive tone going into the most important season for retail sales," Jessica Rabe, cofounder of DataTrek, said. "Given that Halloween spend typically serves
- [Halloween Previews 2020 Holiday Spending](https://datatrekresearch.com/halloween-previews-2020-holiday-spending/): You likely saw headlines today on how US consumer spending slowed in August, so here’s a quick update to put it in perspective: Advanced retail sales (excluding food services) rose by 5.1% y/y in August. While the latest reading was lower than +5.7% and +5.5% in June and July, it was still above +4.7% at
- [Nov-Dec 2000 US Stock Timeline](https://datatrekresearch.com/nov-dec-2000-us-stock-timeline/): We continue to receive client inquiries about the upcoming presidential election and its impact on US equities, so today we’re laying out a “November-December 2000 Election Playbook”. We’ve highlighted how Q4 of election years only see a meaningful uptick in volatility if the presidential race is contested (i.e. 2000). Here is how the US equity market
- [Small Caps, Large Caps… Any Difference?](https://datatrekresearch.com/small-caps-large-caps-any-difference/): To the letter of portfolio theory “law”, there are only two reasons to own a financial asset. The first is to generate a positive return. The second is that those returns are not entirely correlated with other positions in the portfolio. The former generates profits. The latter provides diversification and minimizes total risk. Take as one
- [Update on ESG Investing: Q3 Lull, Q4 Storm?](https://datatrekresearch.com/update-on-esg-investing-q3-lull-q4-storm/): The following graph in FactSet’s latest Earnings Insight report caught our eye; it is a count of the number of S&P 500 companies which mentioned environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics in their Q2 2020 earnings calls. One would have thought that the operating environment last quarter would have crowded out this topic in favor of
- [The Balance: "Pace of Quitting Rises to Highest Since February"](https://datatrekresearch.com/the-balance-pace-of-quitting-rises-to-highest-since-february/): Excerpt from The Balance quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: .... "In fact, the ratio of quits to total job separations (which also include layoffs and discharges) rose to 58.9%, the highest since February, according to DataTrek Research, which calls the metric its “take this job and shove it” indicator. In April, it hit a record
- [Hires Normalize, Quits Climb & Job Openings Surge](https://datatrekresearch.com/hires-normalize-quits-climb-job-openings-surge/): Job openings as a percentage of the US labor force is higher than any month up until 2018, even exceeding the peak of the last economic cycle. That’s the biggest positive from an overall solid Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) out today. Here’s why that matters: Job openings as a percentage of the labor
- [Business Insider: "The 100-day rally in tech stocks is more similar to the 2009 recovery than it is to the 1999 bubble, DataTrek says"](https://datatrekresearch.com/business-insider-the-100-day-rally-in-tech-stocks-is-more-similar-to-the-2009-recovery-than-it-is-to-the-1999-bubble-datatrek-says/): Excerpt from Business Insider quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "The more than 50% rally in technology stocks over the past 100 trading days ends one of two ways: higher like the 2009 recovery, or lower like the 1999 dot-com bubble. That's according to DataTrek, who said on Wednesday that tech stocks' historic 100-day rally will
- [Barron's: "Apple, Microsoft and Other Tech Stocks Are Rebounding"](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-apple-microsoft-and-other-tech-stocks-are-rebounding/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: .... "Tech only returns +50% over 100 days in a bubble (2000) or a cyclical recovery (2009) and we continue to believe 2020 fits the latter paradigm better than the former,” writes DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas. “At the end of the day, 2020 is an early-cycle year
- [US Labor Market: 3 Lesser Known Facts](https://datatrekresearch.com/us-labor-market-3-lesser-known-facts/): By now you likely know the basics of last Friday’s August US Employment Situation report, but here is a quick recap: Unemployment rate of 8.4%. This is somewhat better than the 9.1% average between pre-COVID February 2020 (3.5%) and the COVID Crisis peak in April 2020 (14.7%). There were 1.371 million jobs added to US
- [Barron's: "The Dow Is Sliding. Investors Are Starting to Doubt How High Stocks Can Go."](https://datatrekresearch.com/barrons-the-dow-is-sliding-investors-are-starting-to-doubt-how-high-stocks-can-go/): Excerpt from Barron's quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "Elsewhere, data showed that new applications for unemployment benefits were down in the last week, although they were roughly flat on an unadjusted basis. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed that many layoffs related to the pandemic are becoming permanent. “The U.S. economy has transitioned from crisis
- [Yahoo Finance: "Millennials embraced index funds — and now they're day trading"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-millennials-embraced-index-funds-and-now-theyre-day-trading/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Jessica Rabe: .... "This probably isn’t the case, according to Jessica Rabe, one of the co-founders at DataTrek Research. “I think index and single-stock investing attract mostly the same audience, but there’s different buckets of personal capital including one for speculation and another for retirement,” she told Yahoo Finance.
- [Yahoo Finance: "Why the 2020 rally does not look like a bubble"](https://datatrekresearch.com/yahoo-finance-why-the-2020-rally-does-not-look-like-a-bubble/): Excerpt from Yahoo Finance quoting DataTrek's Nick Colas: ... "But Nicholas Colas, co-founder of investment research firm DataTrek, says that because the current rally lacks many of the key ingredients that make a bubble, we’re not in a bubble... ...“What looks like a bubble is really just investors discounting further government action in an election
- [Sideline Money Returns, TSLA’s Awkward S&P Path](https://datatrekresearch.com/sideline-money-returns-tslas-awkward-sp-path/): Two quick topics today: #1: Let’s consider what Tesla’s eventual inclusion in the S&P 500 will do to the composition of the index. Some background: The Technology sector is presently 28.6% of the S&P. Amazon (Consumer Discretionary) is another 5.0%, and Google/Facebook (Communication Services) are 3.3%/2.4% respectively. That makes Tech + AMZN, GOOG/L and FB 39.3%
- [Reuters: "Stocks not in a bubble"](https://datatrekresearch.com/reuters-stocks-not-in-a-bubble/): DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas was on Reuters TV discussing why he does not think stocks are in a bubble and whether investors should consider reallocating some of their bond holdings to better diversify their portfolios. Watch it here!
- [Election Volatility](https://datatrekresearch.com/election-volatility/): The S&P 500 has moved +1% up or down on almost half (46%) of trading days so far this year. That’s our fundamental benchmark of how much investors “feel” volatility, as any one-day move greater than 1% to the upside or downside is more than 1 standard deviation from the S&P’s mean daily return. Q3 has
- [IBD: "8 Stocks Turned $10,000 Into $326,178 In 8 Months"](https://datatrekresearch.com/ibd-8-stocks-turned-10000-into-326178-in-8-months/): Excerpt from Investor's Business Daily quoting DataTrek co-founder Jessica Rabe: ...."U.S. equities (S&P 500 index) have only compounded at a 6% rate the last 20 years," said Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research. "And even if millennials don't know that exact number they certainly understand that when opportunity strikes in the form of a quick
- [2H 2020 Earnings Expectations](https://datatrekresearch.com/2h-2020-earnings-expectations/): With Q2 earnings season over (98% of S&P 500 companies have reported), we can assess how much upside there might be in 2H 2020 operating results and what Wall Street analysts see for US stock performance over the next 12 months. (Data source: FactSet Earnings Insight, link below.) First, the final Q2 highlights: 84% of companies
- [Millennial Traders, Baby Boomer Investors](https://datatrekresearch.com/millennial-traders-baby-boomer-investors/): Why did retail traders, especially millennials, choose the COVID Crisis to finally become interested in the stock market? As a member of that cohort, I (Jessica) can explain it: #1: Expected future returns drive investor behavior. Prior to COVID-19, my age group lived through both the Dot-Com Bubble Bursting and 2008 Financial Crisis. Many millennials witnessed
- [60/40: Not Dead, Just Different](https://datatrekresearch.com/60-40-not-dead-just-different/): Funny story to kick off “Data”, in a nerdy sort of way: When Harry Markowitz defended his dissertation on portfolio theory in front of the University of Chicago’s Economics Department in the early 1950s, no less a figure than Milton Friedman argued that the work was ineligible for a Ph.D. It was not “Economics”, he
- [Off The Grid, COVID Crisis Edition](https://datatrekresearch.com/off-the-grid-covid-crisis-edition/): Back in 2009, as the Great Recession’s scope was just coming into focus, we developed an analytical toolbox we called “Off the Grid Indicators”. As is the case now, US equities were on a tear after their March lows. This move accurately forecast the V-bottom in corporate earnings, just as the current +50% advance off 2020’s

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