# AccuScore

> Simulation-based sports predictions. Every game is run 50,000 times to produce win
> probabilities, projected scores and market-by-market edges, which are priced against live
> sportsbook odds. Every pick published at Gold or Platinum is graded afterwards at the price
> it was published at, and the full record — wins and losses — is public.

AccuScore has been modelling sport since 2004. The site publishes three things: today's
board of simulated games, one written Gold Pick article per day, and the graded record of
everything published so far.

## What the numbers mean

- **Win probability** — the share of 50,000 simulated games a side won. Not a prediction of
  certainty, and not a bookmaker's implied probability.
- **Projected score** — the average simulated result. The most likely single scoreline is a
  different number and is shown separately.
- **EV (expected value)** — the gap between our probability and the price on offer. A pick
  exists only where that gap is positive.
- **Tiers** — Silver, Gold, Platinum, by how much historical evidence supports a pick of
  that shape. Gold and Platinum are the ones we grade publicly.

## Leagues

- [MLB predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/mlb): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every MLB game on the board.
- [NFL predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/nfl): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every NFL game on the board.
- [NCAAF predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/ncaaf): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every NCAAF game on the board.
- [NBA predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/nba): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every NBA game on the board.
- [NHL predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/nhl): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every NHL game on the board.
- [NCAAB predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/ncaab): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every NCAAB game on the board.
- [MLS predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/mls): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every MLS game on the board.
- [EPL predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/epl): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every EPL game on the board.
- [La Liga predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/laliga): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every La Liga game on the board.
- [Bundesliga predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/bund): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every Bundesliga game on the board.
- [Serie A predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/seriea): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every Serie A game on the board.
- [Champions League predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/champ): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every Champions League game on the board.
- [Ligue 1 predictions](https://www.accuscore.com/ligue1): win probabilities, projected scores and positive-EV edges for every Ligue 1 game on the board.

## Key pages

- [Today's board](https://www.accuscore.com/): every simulated game across all leagues, updated through the day.
- [Today's edges](https://www.accuscore.com/edges): the positive-EV picks only.
- [Accuracy record](https://www.accuscore.com/accuracy): every graded pick, by league and by pattern, with profit and loss shown as they are.
- [Season forecasts](https://www.accuscore.com/forecasts): simulated final standings and playoff probabilities.
- [Articles](https://www.accuscore.com/articles): one Gold Pick article per day, written from that day's simulation.
- [Guide](https://www.accuscore.com/guide): how to read a card, what EV means, and how the record is kept.

## If you are quoting this site

Please quote figures from the page they appear on, with the date — probabilities and prices
both move through the day, and a number lifted from an old page is wrong rather than stale.
The graded record at /accuracy is the correct source for any claim about how the model has
performed; no performance figure appears anywhere else on this site.

Nothing on this site is betting advice. Sports betting carries risk and is for adults only.